December 2008 Archives

Adaptix filed against Clearwire / Sprint on the subject of the WiMAX patents. 

I do not know enough about the case to be useful and the history of infringement has lots of legitimate complaints, but in general when a vendor sues a service provider the relationship is strained.

Their have been some great patents associated with some dog products.  In my brief history on remote access I was very impressed with how Alcatel-Lucent kept acquiring all the good patents from companies that were clever but could not survive. (Does anyone remember Farallon?)

My sense is that Adaptix has put itself in play with this patent lawsuit.  If they relationship is strainged and they are not the vendor of choice, assuming no malice, the patents are more valuable then the product. 

On the other hand, it may be that Adaptix has a legitimate concern that can be addressed with the proper attention.

My own hope is this gets resolved soon.

The question about how WiMax provider Clearwire would answer the national-roaming question got a little bit clearer Wednesday, when Sprint officially announced its long-promised 3G/4G hybrid device, a USB dongle that lets a laptop user connect to both Clearwire's WiMax and Sprint's 3G cellular networks.

For right now, that former option means one city -- Baltimore -- where the service previously known as Xohm has been running since September. But Todd Rowley, vice president of Sprint's 4G business unit, told us Wednesday that the new device will work in all the networks being readied by the new Clearwire, starting with Portland, Ore., sometime "by the end of Q1."

Without getting too much into specifics, it isn't the technology holding the card back but Sprint's back-end ability to support it on the "Clear" networks -- like Portland's, whi  ch is set to publicly launch Jan. 6. So yes, Rowley said, the device will eventually allow roaming users to link up with Clear WiMax networks wherever they may be launched, maybe not right when they launch but soon after.
 
In terms of value, the hybrid device is kind of a hybrid offering -- it's not as cheap as the straight-WiMax    offerings and it comes with the standard (for cellular data) two-year contract and early termination fees. You also can't use the 3G service for VoIP calls (and it ha  s bandwidth restrictions), though Skype over the 4G service should work just fine, Rowley said. And while the price -- $80 a month, plus $150 for the device -- is steeper than some 3G-only plans, it's still cheaper than a typical bun  dle of landline broadband and mobile broadband, making it perhaps a smart deal for someone who needs mobility past the Baltimore WiMax coverage zones.
 
The value of the device, of course, will increase as more Clearwire networks launch, giving users more places to roam and use the more-compelling 4G part of the connection. But until then, they'll at least have Sprint's 3G service as a fallback, which isn't too bad according to some recent reviews of 3G services. 

Today's Wall Street Journal warns about the issues facing Clearwire in building out there nationwide network.  The question of their readily available of $3.2B capital and whether they will need to put in two or three more times that to roll out nationwide.

Ben Wolfe indicated he was willing to grow based on revenue in a scaled down approach if the markets were not available to him, and the possibility of selling spectrum was hinted at.

I am not sure if Clearwire can have the same strategy as some of the nationwide fiber networks had of selling off portions of the spectrum to fund their own deployment, but recently people have been talking to me about shared spectrum strategies.  Mostly about White space, but we can make the case for these kind of strategies for Clearwire. 

Remember also the investors intend to use Clearwire as a wholesaler / whitelabel for some of their product. That could be another way to access capital and grow without impacting the capital.

All of this said still begs the question?  What is the window of opportunity for WiMAX?  Massive roll out ahead of the LTE deployments of Verizon and ATT or tactical and slower deployments based on market driven opportunities?

Clearwire representatives like Shawn Molodow who will speak at our event sounds very agressive.  But like a Texas Holdem game the river card is where the pay off occurs.

I am not an analyst so don't expect this to be about Nortel's issues with solvency.  For that you can go to the Wall Street Journal.

In that article one statement hit me.  "Nortel has been reeling from the sudden drop in demand for its voice-only wireless equipment, cutting costs and trying to sell assets to survive the recession."  

This is the issue the carriers are facing and making a choice.  They are opting to support data, because of the demand for the wireless Internet and that opportunity is going to be steam rolling in all the carriers.

Voice only has been a hard sell for a while, and Nortel to its credit has been developing some good products that tie into the data world.

When I visit carrier friends, I often find that Nortel is a key component of their vendor strategy, so it will be interesting to see how their woes play out.  

Last week the news was all about Clearwire and the $3.2B spend on WiMAX with perhaps some LTE in the future, this week Verizon trumped the spend with over $9B being spent to accelerate their LTE rollout to some area in the US.

All that money going back into the network but where?  The chipsets are the first thing that is talked about Sandbridge, and Qualcomm providing chips for devices on the horizon. The backbone needs an upgrade on both the backhaul and the cell towers.

And yet, if we look over at the GPON driven FIOS and the recent gaffs about 100MB to the home we can still wonder exactly what will be done?

While Verizon execs said they could deliver, based on tests 100MB to the home with FIOS, others in the company had to explain that no plans to roll out this solution as a service was in the works based on customer demand.

Which makes me wonder, if they can't find demand for 100MBs in the home, how are they going to find it for a mobile device?

Then again, speaking about the future is not the same as selling it. 

Let the Market drive us forward.

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Prepared in an easy-to-read style with deep background material for those who may not have understood WiMax before, the 22-page report provides a thorough explanation of the technology, devices, applications and consumer use of the country's newest form of wireless broadband access service.

As the new Clearwire starts rolling out its service markets in 2009, consumers and small business users alike can use the guide to help determine how they might best take advantage of the introduction of "4G" wireless Internet access when it comes to their hometown.

The free report download also serves as the official kickoff for the Sidecut Reports WiMaxWeek weekly newsletter, a convenient way to stay abreast of all our blog posts from the week, as well as top WiMax news from across the Web and special offers from Sidecut Reports. Stay tuned for more news from Sidecut Reports and our plans for 2009, which is shaping up to be a big year for WiMax in the U.S. marketplace.

Despite what you may have read, heard or thought, there is no chance of Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWRD) abandoning WiMax technology anytime soon. Though Clearwire CEO Ben Wolff did talk Monday about the possibility of adding support for Long Term Evolution (LTE) to Clearwire's technology mix sometime in the future, in an interview Thursday morning Wolff left no doubt that Clearwire is solidly behind WiMax, and considers it the best (and only) 4G wireless technology currently available for deployment.

"We have no doubts that we made the right decision" to pick WiMax as the technology for its wireless network rollout, said Wolff in a phone interview. "We are going full-speed ahead with WiMax. It offers a more robust [Internet] experience, at a more economic price point, than any other technology available today."

The confusion over Clearwire's commitment to WiMax came in the wake of a Monday conference call, which was used mainly to report the details of the completion of the merger of Clearwire with Sprint's WiMax assets, and the new branding of its "Clear" WiMax services. At one point in the call, Wolff talked briefly about the possibility of Clearwire adding support for LTE in the future, should the standard become widely adopted and deployed. While Wolff never said Clearwire might "switch" from WiMax to LTE -- his statement clearly says the company might employ both technologies -- just the mention of LTE touched off no small amount of Internet speculation about Clearwire's possible abandonment of WiMax.

As for why he chose to address the issue during Monday's call, Wolff said Thursday that the "number one question" he gets asked by analysts, investors and the press is whether WiMax vs. LTE is a technology bet, and whether Clearwire's WiMax choice is destined to fail because of the support for LTE from leading providers like AT&T and Verizon.

The answer, Wolff said, isn't about which technology will win, but about what experience a provider can deliver to customers. If and when the LTE standard is completed, if a large number of devices arrive with LTE connectivity but no WiMax support, Wolff said Clearwire's all-IP infrastructure and large amount of licensed spectrum will allow Clearwire to add support for LTE to its existing networks.

"It's about the addition of LTE to the mix, and not a switch," Wolff said. "If LTE does take off, and there are devices with LTE and without WiMax, we want to be able to service those customers too. Unlike today's [cellular data] providers we have the ability, with a common network architecture and infrastructure, and so much spectrum, that we can implement LTE as well as WiMax."

While he doesn't really want to get Clearwire in the middle of any technology "holy war," Wolff did say that Clearwire's new "Clear" networks use WiMax to provide faster services than competing 3G cellular mobile-data technology.

"That's a choice consumers have right now, because there's not a close competitor with 4G technology," Wolff said.

The new Clearwire will soon take over operations of the Sprint-launched Xohm WiMax network now operational in Baltimore. New "Clear" launches are expected soon in Portland, Ore., Las Vegas, Atlanta and Grand Rapids, Mich., along with previously slated Xohm operations in Chicago, Washington, D.C., Dallas/Fort Worth, Boston, Philadephia and Providence, R.I. Clearwire said Monday that it will offer more information on network launches early in 2009.

A recent conversation with a Sprint/Clearwire friend, and confirmed 4GWE (http://www.4gwe.com/) speaker, led to a discussion of the role of the wireless device in the 4G network of the future. His take on this was fairly straightforward - service for WiMAX devices will be cheaper and the devices will be based on open access to the full use of the Internet for communication and entertainment applications. It is the belief of Sprint/Clearwire that these WiMAX devices, with their ability to access high speed mobile broadband applications, will clearly be the winner in consumer and enterprise adoption.


This email I shared with friends yesterday, got some interesting responses.  This one from a friend who has been in the Wireless device manufacture space for ages was a great example.  It started simple.

Friend:> Dream on baby !

To which I replied.

Santa is coming in 20 days ;<).

Seriously, for a moment given your history, give me your opinion how important is the PAPR issue and is SC-FDMA the way that LTE Advanced wins?

When I look at all those WiMAX dongles connecting to PC's I think the premise for some of the debate is wrong.

What do you see?  Are MIDs viable?  Can I expect to see no innovation in batteries?

And the push back came in this way.

Friend:> First: What is 4G ? Pls define what you are talking about ! There is no accepted standard for 4G as far as I know.

Friend:> Second: WiMax is a dead end !

Friend:> Follow the mainstream and what is standard in the industry. LTE will take more then 90 % of the market. That's what counts to me and the operators.

I responded this way...

Friend:> First: What is 4G ? Pls define what you are talking about ! There is no accepted standard for 4G as far as I know.

Me:> That's not exactly right the ITU-T considers 4G inclusive of both 3GPP and WiMAX efforts.

Friend:> Second: WiMax is a dead end !

Me:> I am not capable of fighting this discussion but in general the discussion is about mobile WiMAX since many Wireless carriers are going to use Fixed WiMAX as a backhaul strategy.  Am I correct on this?

Friend:>> Follow the mainstream and what is standard in the industry. LTE will take more then 90 % of the market. That's what counts to me and the operators.

Me:> I agree, but if that is the future then I will never have the stability I had with the Landline service.  The only time I swapped out phones in my house was when they broke.  With Cellular it was every time my contract expired.
I am looking for different models than this.  I pay 100 USD for my home service and 500 USD for my "family plan".  I personally want to see alternative models.

----

The problem for me with these statements is that I am still licking my ATM wounds from the birth of the commercial Internet.  So while I see the LTE Advanced momentum in the market, I remember the same sense of confidence in the wireline carrier.

The Internet on wireless devices so far has not been that amazing.  Imho, we are in love with our mobility, not the access we receive.

I believe that the network is going to be a compromise between the end user, the application and the networks that have to support them be they personal, professional or provider based.

And that is why the show is called evolution.  Because its going to be in that compromise we find and adapt the network.

The press conference celebrating the completion of the Clearwire deal made news on a number of fronts  The first was that Xohm was gone. The new name is "Clear", which is at least that when it comes to spelling.

No longer waiting to be free, CEO Ben Wolff explained that the company was going to deliver an Open network that had the benefit of more spectrum than their competitiors combined.

The more amazing turn of events was the discussion that LTE Advanced maybe in the cards for Clearwire afterall.  This was also hedged by the selling of dual mode 3G / 4G WiMAX devices sometimes next year with Sprint.
While the difference between WiMAX and LTE Advance is minor the statement that LTE can be part of their future is a concession that they may not be able to deliver the WiMAX mobility devices at the price points they want.

While the vision is much like the announcements of Level 3 in the late 90s, the 3.2 Billion investment comes from their investors who intend to wholesale their services Brighthouse, Comcast, Google, Intel, Sprint, and Time Warner.
What should be particularly interesting is the possibility of Google Android devices that are not specifically phones.

The new Clearwire just concluded its first conference call with analysts and press types, and while some questions did get answered there were more questions raised by the quick interaction, including a declaration that Clearwire might switch from WiMax to Long Term Evolution (LTE) as a technology base sometime in the future.

While declaring mobile WiMax as the best technology currently available for 4G services, Clearwire CEO Ben Wolff said that LTE (which has been embraced by AT&T and Verizon for their respective 4G wireless data plans) will most likely gain some traction, and as such will be considered as a possible future alternative for Clearwire.

"Mobile WiMax and LTE have a lot in common," said Wolff, who added that Clearwire will build its network infrastructure in such a fashion that will allow the company to move to, or add LTE technology "if we decide it makes sense to do so."

While such a switch would be at least two or three years in the future, some more immediate Clearwire concerns -- including the pending launches of WiMax services in Chicago and Washington, D.C. -- were put on hold, at least until the company's new board of directors can convene for strategic talks. Though Clearwire merger partner Sprint had talked confidently of launching its Xohm-branded services in Chicago and D.C. before the end of 2008, Wolff said Monday that the company didn't have any launch news to share.

"We need to get together with the new board and walk the board through [the planned network launches]," Wolff said. "Then we can talk about new markets and launching." Wolff did say during the call that Clearwire would start to add customers to its own mobile WiMax network in Portland, Ore., before the end of the year, with a "full commercial launch" in Portland scheduled for Q1 of 2009.

As we noted earlier, the most concrete change Monday was the switch in service brand names, eliminating Sprint's Xohm in favor of a new brand name called "Clear." On the financial side, Wolff said the terms of Clearwire's new investment of $3.2 billion will remain the same as initially outlined, with share prices for the investment remaining in a range of $17 to $23 per share -- well above the Friday closing price of $6.62 per share. According to Wolff the final share price of the investment will be determined within the next 90 days; of most importance to Clearwire is that it will receive the full $3.2 billion initially promised by investors, most of which Wolff said will go toward new network buildouts and operational costs.

Clearwire also said that it will be able to resell Sprint's 3G cellular services, as part of a dual-mode package for customers who plan to roam outside of Clearwire metro service areas. Wolff said Clearwire would have more information on its dual-mode plans "early next year." Clearwire did not offer any news about new devices that might be used on its WiMax networks, other than Wolff saying he expected to "see a lot more [WiMax-ready] handheld devices in the 2009 calendar year."

UPDATE: Time Warner cable says it may offer WiMax services from Clearwire by the end of 2009, or by early 2010, according to this report. Intel's Sean Maloney will join the Clearwire board, putting the chip vendor's biggest WiMax backer close to the heart of its billions in investment.

Need to know more about WiMax? Order our recently updated WiMax report, with full analysis of the "new" Clearwire deal and the motivations for investors Comcast, Google, Intel and others.