Carl Ford
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The Taffy Pull of Nortel: Ciena & Ericsson
November 25, 2009
If the sum of the parts is never greater than the whole, the dividing of Nortel into various sections has interesting implications.
First of all, Ericsson is on a hot streak right now. It's announcements with ATT , T-Mobile and Verizon. Its outsourced services with Sprint, has made Ericsson the leader in the market. And its reflected in the fact that it now has an extra 5000 employees in the US.
Most importantly, It bought a cash cow for a mere $70M as the battle for 4G and LTE heats up they will be in their customers hearts already with the GSM support.
So its a pretty strong move.
On the other side, Huawei continues to capture the cable operators hearts and it will be interesting to see where the operators link between their IMS plans and the existing structure.
However, if integration services are the story for the future, then an opportunity probably exists for other companies to build that kind of a service.
One place where Integration will be tricky at best is Ciena. Nortel had a long history of walking to the beat of its own drummer on interoffice facilities, as the migration to ethernet continued it had a legacy mindset that carried over and doe not match well to Ciena.
So the question of how the nearly $ 800 M acquistion of the Nortel Ethernet assets get managed will be interesting to see. My own expectation is this may be a bitter pill to swallow and Nokia Siemens maybe grateful they did not win the bid.
First of all, Ericsson is on a hot streak right now. It's announcements with ATT , T-Mobile and Verizon. Its outsourced services with Sprint, has made Ericsson the leader in the market. And its reflected in the fact that it now has an extra 5000 employees in the US.
Most importantly, It bought a cash cow for a mere $70M as the battle for 4G and LTE heats up they will be in their customers hearts already with the GSM support.
So its a pretty strong move.
On the other side, Huawei continues to capture the cable operators hearts and it will be interesting to see where the operators link between their IMS plans and the existing structure.
However, if integration services are the story for the future, then an opportunity probably exists for other companies to build that kind of a service.
One place where Integration will be tricky at best is Ciena. Nortel had a long history of walking to the beat of its own drummer on interoffice facilities, as the migration to ethernet continued it had a legacy mindset that carried over and doe not match well to Ciena.
So the question of how the nearly $ 800 M acquistion of the Nortel Ethernet assets get managed will be interesting to see. My own expectation is this may be a bitter pill to swallow and Nokia Siemens maybe grateful they did not win the bid.
Clearwire Goes Live with WiMAX in Dallas, Chicago, Charlotte
November 5, 2009
The long wait for WiMAX in the Windy City as well as the DFW Metroplex is over -- as we expected, Clearwire is now selling services in both cities, keeping with the company's strategy of "soft launching" markets online before staging an "official" market opening with all the attendant hoopla.
Since it's Nov. 1, time for a new map -- and the one on the Clear.com website now shows Chicago "in the green" of Clearwire services, while adding Dallas/Fort Worth to the list of cities with service in Texas.
In North Carolina, the cities of Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro are also now listed as "live," so it looks like Clearwire should be able to make good on its promise to step up subscriber numbers in Q4, simply by having lots more markets selling services.
The big ones, however, are Chicago and Dallas -- two huge metro areas where Clearwire will see how it fares against existing service providers. In Chicago, Clearwire also has its first true "commuter" city, since thousands there ride the rails every day, to and from work, play, school and in just general getting-aroundness.
Will WiMAX's ability to connect while mobile make a big impression? We are only now just going to find out. We'll have some more thinking on Clearwire market launches later this week.
Since it's Nov. 1, time for a new map -- and the one on the Clear.com website now shows Chicago "in the green" of Clearwire services, while adding Dallas/Fort Worth to the list of cities with service in Texas.
In North Carolina, the cities of Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro are also now listed as "live," so it looks like Clearwire should be able to make good on its promise to step up subscriber numbers in Q4, simply by having lots more markets selling services.
The big ones, however, are Chicago and Dallas -- two huge metro areas where Clearwire will see how it fares against existing service providers. In Chicago, Clearwire also has its first true "commuter" city, since thousands there ride the rails every day, to and from work, play, school and in just general getting-aroundness.
Will WiMAX's ability to connect while mobile make a big impression? We are only now just going to find out. We'll have some more thinking on Clearwire market launches later this week.
China and the iPhone
October 26, 2009
It may be that ATT is good as it gets with the iPhone.
I have already commented on the fact that Telefonica is not having the same dramatic impact with the iPhone as ATT (Verizon [ NYSE: VZ] announced a 30% drop in earnings and slower growth than ATT ).
In China the Nokia E71 has a good following (I am still an N95 fan) and the cost of the iPhone is equivalent to a $1,000 US dollars over there. The discussion of Nokia's efforts to protect patents Apple may have violated seems late, but I suspect it will work itself out like many of these do before the court has to make a decision. IMHO, It probably has more value in the EU to show market / thought leadership than financial value.
More importantly as China continues to manage the operations of their end users the ability to use WiFi has been disabled. Like the issues of Skype via TOM in China, a closed iPhone with only the carriers network is not as interesting as an IPhone with WiFi. However, it allows the state to know what it wants to know.
Of course in China if you capture less than .001 of the market you are still busy, so the iPhone success is pretty much a guarantee.
I have already commented on the fact that Telefonica is not having the same dramatic impact with the iPhone as ATT (Verizon [ NYSE: VZ] announced a 30% drop in earnings and slower growth than ATT ).
In China the Nokia E71 has a good following (I am still an N95 fan) and the cost of the iPhone is equivalent to a $1,000 US dollars over there. The discussion of Nokia's efforts to protect patents Apple may have violated seems late, but I suspect it will work itself out like many of these do before the court has to make a decision. IMHO, It probably has more value in the EU to show market / thought leadership than financial value.
More importantly as China continues to manage the operations of their end users the ability to use WiFi has been disabled. Like the issues of Skype via TOM in China, a closed iPhone with only the carriers network is not as interesting as an IPhone with WiFi. However, it allows the state to know what it wants to know.
Of course in China if you capture less than .001 of the market you are still busy, so the iPhone success is pretty much a guarantee.
Report Excerpt: Market Launches Keep Clearwire on Target
October 20, 2009
Editor's note: The following is an excerpt from our latest quarterly report on all things Clearwire, the CLEARWIRE NTK OCTOBER 2009 (need to know) report, available now for the low low price of $4.95. In this excerpt we talk about how Clearwire's on-time, on-target market launches in Atlanta and Las Vegas, as well as a host of smaller cities, have kept the company on target with its ambitious 2009 rollout plans. For the full report, order online here. Report excerpt follows:
Vegas, Atlanta and Silicon Valley - but where is Chicago?
Easily the most positive sign for Clearwire during the hot months was its on-schedule rollout of services in Atlanta and Las Vegas, the two bigger markets Clearwire had said it would launch during the summer -- and did.
Vegas, Atlanta and Silicon Valley - but where is Chicago?
Easily the most positive sign for Clearwire during the hot months was its on-schedule rollout of services in Atlanta and Las Vegas, the two bigger markets Clearwire had said it would launch during the summer -- and did.
Report Excerpt: Why Dearth of Devices Hurts Clearwire
October 13, 2009
Editor's note: The following is an excerpt from our latest quarterly report on all things Clearwire, the CLEARWIRE NTK OCTOBER 2009 (need to know) report, available now for the low low price of $4.95.
In this excerpt we talk about why we think the lack of interesting WiMAX end-user devices (or the overpriced ones that did launch) have kept users from flocking to Clearwire's 4G wireless broadband offering. For the full report, order online here. Report excerpt follows:
Prices and Devices: Waiting for a reason 'Why' to try WiMAX
Without a doubt, the coolest thing about WiMAX is its ability to provide a true broadband connection with cellular mobility. One of Clearwire's biggest problems, however, is a lack of a compelling reason to take advantage of that mobile connection -- and the dearth of devices that would allow you to even try.
The growing popularity and use of smartphones points to another WiMAX weakness -- the lack of truly portable devices that can take advantage of the technology's superior connectivity.
In this excerpt we talk about why we think the lack of interesting WiMAX end-user devices (or the overpriced ones that did launch) have kept users from flocking to Clearwire's 4G wireless broadband offering. For the full report, order online here. Report excerpt follows:
Prices and Devices: Waiting for a reason 'Why' to try WiMAX
Without a doubt, the coolest thing about WiMAX is its ability to provide a true broadband connection with cellular mobility. One of Clearwire's biggest problems, however, is a lack of a compelling reason to take advantage of that mobile connection -- and the dearth of devices that would allow you to even try.
The growing popularity and use of smartphones points to another WiMAX weakness -- the lack of truly portable devices that can take advantage of the technology's superior connectivity.
Ceilings and Floors: Vodafone and Verizon
September 25, 2009
It's game of inches as they say.
I have been looking at the reporting about Verizon's App Store activity and find the perspective of some pundits troubling.
As I reported when I went to the Verizon Developers Conference, the goal Verizon has is very different than being the equivalent of the iTunes AppStore.
Lets be honest, how many of us have looked at all 65,000 apps, and how many of us really want to.
Verizon announced a partnership with Vodafone, China Mobile and Softbank to deliver applications their way. Very specfically Verizon was looking to open the interfaces for location, billing and trust (security). I noted that their strategy was associated with a API that masked alot of the behind the scenes OSS work.
Carriers and cellphone vendors have procedures for turning on the phone that represent over 100 steps in provisioning and configuration. Verizon has tried to make the network valuable without having the carrier's internal OSS stifle the developer. The one requirement is work within a framework. A lot of the companies that are on the iPhone do not like this framework, and it shows in in the blogosphere.
So Vodafone makes its announcement about their efforts to build Vodafone 360 which to me is a another strategy in keeping with the alliance, but is not getting the anger yet.
I think the reason maybe be that Verizon is in the California footprint and the developers are asked all the time "Can I use it on my phone" and since VZW is big in California, the answer frustrating.
I have been looking at the reporting about Verizon's App Store activity and find the perspective of some pundits troubling.
As I reported when I went to the Verizon Developers Conference, the goal Verizon has is very different than being the equivalent of the iTunes AppStore.
Lets be honest, how many of us have looked at all 65,000 apps, and how many of us really want to.
Verizon announced a partnership with Vodafone, China Mobile and Softbank to deliver applications their way. Very specfically Verizon was looking to open the interfaces for location, billing and trust (security). I noted that their strategy was associated with a API that masked alot of the behind the scenes OSS work.
Carriers and cellphone vendors have procedures for turning on the phone that represent over 100 steps in provisioning and configuration. Verizon has tried to make the network valuable without having the carrier's internal OSS stifle the developer. The one requirement is work within a framework. A lot of the companies that are on the iPhone do not like this framework, and it shows in in the blogosphere.
So Vodafone makes its announcement about their efforts to build Vodafone 360 which to me is a another strategy in keeping with the alliance, but is not getting the anger yet.
I think the reason maybe be that Verizon is in the California footprint and the developers are asked all the time "Can I use it on my phone" and since VZW is big in California, the answer frustrating.
Should the Universal Service Fund Include Wireless Broadband
September 15, 2009
In a panel discussion at 4G world the general opinion was that USF will be modified to include the ability to support wireless broadband strategies.
"Their is growing consensus that Universal Service should include wireless" said Hank Hultquist of ATT. Many panel members echoed these comments, but the details as to what will be included were not the full topic of the discussion.
Currently the definition of broadband is under discussion at the FCC.
Many carriers are worried that a definition now may be unattainable as they service the growing data needs of the consumer. Previously Kris Rinne, 4G CTO of ATT, stated that they were seeing a 4000% growth in the data traffic since the adoption of the iPhone and other smartphones.
Questions that will have to be addressed include whether the addition of wireless to the fund will be associated with reform to the fund itself or as an addition. Current adminstration members were instrumental in the development of the USF in the Clinton adminstration and have a favorable view to the model.
However the costs associated with the High Cost land line services may not be valid when talking about Wireless strategies, and it may be that the inclusion represents alternative services as well via the E-rate model.
It has been suggested that many of the proposals attempting to use the stimulus dollars are similar in ownership structure associated with E-rate.
"Their is growing consensus that Universal Service should include wireless" said Hank Hultquist of ATT. Many panel members echoed these comments, but the details as to what will be included were not the full topic of the discussion.
Currently the definition of broadband is under discussion at the FCC.
Many carriers are worried that a definition now may be unattainable as they service the growing data needs of the consumer. Previously Kris Rinne, 4G CTO of ATT, stated that they were seeing a 4000% growth in the data traffic since the adoption of the iPhone and other smartphones.
Questions that will have to be addressed include whether the addition of wireless to the fund will be associated with reform to the fund itself or as an addition. Current adminstration members were instrumental in the development of the USF in the Clinton adminstration and have a favorable view to the model.
However the costs associated with the High Cost land line services may not be valid when talking about Wireless strategies, and it may be that the inclusion represents alternative services as well via the E-rate model.
It has been suggested that many of the proposals attempting to use the stimulus dollars are similar in ownership structure associated with E-rate.
In the UK, resistance to drink the Orange T
September 9, 2009
I was looking at Guardian reading about the merger of the Orange and T-Mobile assets in the UK. This 50/50 merger seems to me a great deal particularly for T-Mobile. Orange from most accounts was the better built out network than the T-Mobile acquired assets.
I expect that some consumer concerns are going to impact the restrictions on the merger but the merger will go through. The biggest issue is that Vodafone the UK based company just got passed in market share by other carriers making them number 3.
Its a vibrant market and if O2 was allowed to become part of Telfonica, and has Hutcheson (branded as 3) representing other foreign investors in the space the consolidation of foreign investors is a good thing.
As for impact, I could make a case that 3 and Virgin will find a way to work together. By in large Richard Branson has lost his taste for Telecom is more focused on energy issues (even before smart grid became the fad). However, the opportunity may be with one of the other large players.
The analysis in the UK about the need for 5 wireless competitors should be put in perspective to the EU's over all view. The EU commission sees all the services as blended, as ultimately they are, so landline operators, cable and other technologies should be pointed out as reasons to think beyond the monopolistic fears.
On a worldwide scale the more interesting question is should we expect more of the same. I have often felt that T-Mobile and Sprint would be a good combination, but they do not have a common history in the US. But strangely enough, Orange has a past with Sprint, so maybe the ball will get rolling towards some US talks.
I expect that some consumer concerns are going to impact the restrictions on the merger but the merger will go through. The biggest issue is that Vodafone the UK based company just got passed in market share by other carriers making them number 3.
Its a vibrant market and if O2 was allowed to become part of Telfonica, and has Hutcheson (branded as 3) representing other foreign investors in the space the consolidation of foreign investors is a good thing.
As for impact, I could make a case that 3 and Virgin will find a way to work together. By in large Richard Branson has lost his taste for Telecom is more focused on energy issues (even before smart grid became the fad). However, the opportunity may be with one of the other large players.
The analysis in the UK about the need for 5 wireless competitors should be put in perspective to the EU's over all view. The EU commission sees all the services as blended, as ultimately they are, so landline operators, cable and other technologies should be pointed out as reasons to think beyond the monopolistic fears.
On a worldwide scale the more interesting question is should we expect more of the same. I have often felt that T-Mobile and Sprint would be a good combination, but they do not have a common history in the US. But strangely enough, Orange has a past with Sprint, so maybe the ball will get rolling towards some US talks.
Testing a Big Question for 'Open' 4G Devices
September 3, 2009There was a little cold-water type reality splashed on the audience at the morning panels here Thursday at the 4GWE conference, specifically around the notion of 4G network and device testing -- a relatively non-sexy topic that may nevertheless slow down the delivery of all the new devices promised for the 4G networks of the future.
The problem, as outlined by the panelists, is that with the increased bandwidth and increased functionality of the mobile devices of the future comes exponential requirements for testing to make sure the devices and the applications residing on them work as promised.
There was some deep-dive material that we're not going to get into right now (check this space for an update when we post the panel presentations) but on a simpler plane panelists like David Gehringer, VP of marketing for Fanfare Software, noted that things like the IEEE standards, say for mobile WiMAX, are really just the starting point for delivering a working device.
"It's nice to have a standard, but it's really just the ante," Gehringer said. After you meet the baseline standard specs, he said, "then the real testing starts."
Fanny Mlinarsky, president of octoScope, said that in the past testing mobile devices was relatively simple, since they typically only had one radio inside. Now, multiple radios -- different cellular bands, as well as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth -- are a given, as are multiple applications, sometimes from third parties outside the carrier's own operations.
The complexity, she said, makes testing devices a much harder task these days. Even Apple's iPhone, which all panelists agreed was an extremely well-tested device from the manufacturer's standpoint, has attracted a wide range of add-on applications, some of which perform better than others -- especially when it comes to battery usage.
"That's why iPhone users stay close to the power plug," Mlinarsky said.
