Carl Ford
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Emerging Technology
Evolution of Cellular
February 2, 2009
Brough is doing a great job giving the history of the industry move to 3G.
Like Darwin's natural selection, the market is the place where natural selection occurs.
There are lots of standards that have been in play over the years. And LTE represents the strategy for the carrier market.
But is the carrier market the only market?
Interesting point about markets for video and SMS.
SMS was not planned for but as the profits rolled in the adoption became universal. MMS does not come automatically configured which means that only 40% of the capable phones have been configured.
On the video side, the story turns out to be about shared video. The market does not want video call, they want to comment via voice about some shared visual. "Look at this" as opposed to "look at me".
Nice side crowd
Like Darwin's natural selection, the market is the place where natural selection occurs.
There are lots of standards that have been in play over the years. And LTE represents the strategy for the carrier market.
But is the carrier market the only market?
Interesting point about markets for video and SMS.
SMS was not planned for but as the profits rolled in the adoption became universal. MMS does not come automatically configured which means that only 40% of the capable phones have been configured.
On the video side, the story turns out to be about shared video. The market does not want video call, they want to comment via voice about some shared visual. "Look at this" as opposed to "look at me".
Nice side crowd
The Emphasis on the Wrong Syllable Bankrupt Nortel sheds WiMAX
January 29, 2009
I don't think this would be a sign of WiMAX's apocalypse. I instead see this as a prudent move on Nortel's part to emphasis the pieces of the solutions they own.
A Billion Here, a Billion there...
January 21, 2009
A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. Attributed to Senator Dirksen is a great quote for today now that we know that Microsoft has pulled out its investment in Comcast which has yielded a doubling of its billion dollars invested in 1997.
Back then the goal was Microsoft set top boxes, but the investment did not yield a contract. It did not yield the intended result. That's a big issue when investment strategy is tied to specific intentions, will the monies be a good investment independent of specific project.
For example, speaking of billions, the Clearwire write-down has been hard to watch at both Intel and Time Warner, but these were paper write downs may yield the same results as Microsoft in the end.
Intel's Mobile Internet Device vision is having problems becoming the experience of the WiMAX user. Until the iPhone, Blackberry's were more impressive then dongles while traveling, but the Wireless Internet was actually a dongle dominated domain.
Now the promise of applications that take advantage of the device is the testament as to what we should expect for the future.
Clearwire's 3 Billion in WiMAX is dwarfed by either China's 20 Billion or Verizon's 9 Billion commitment to LTE. But if the consumer is going to drive demand, I am not clear the story is making sense in relation to consumer demand. Clearwire's pricing sounds amazing, but can the build out drive a market that may be slow to adopt at this point.
So with the billions in commitment the real story has yet to be delivered.
Back then the goal was Microsoft set top boxes, but the investment did not yield a contract. It did not yield the intended result. That's a big issue when investment strategy is tied to specific intentions, will the monies be a good investment independent of specific project.
For example, speaking of billions, the Clearwire write-down has been hard to watch at both Intel and Time Warner, but these were paper write downs may yield the same results as Microsoft in the end.
Intel's Mobile Internet Device vision is having problems becoming the experience of the WiMAX user. Until the iPhone, Blackberry's were more impressive then dongles while traveling, but the Wireless Internet was actually a dongle dominated domain.
Now the promise of applications that take advantage of the device is the testament as to what we should expect for the future.
Clearwire's 3 Billion in WiMAX is dwarfed by either China's 20 Billion or Verizon's 9 Billion commitment to LTE. But if the consumer is going to drive demand, I am not clear the story is making sense in relation to consumer demand. Clearwire's pricing sounds amazing, but can the build out drive a market that may be slow to adopt at this point.
So with the billions in commitment the real story has yet to be delivered.
Azimuth Looks Ahead After Successful 2008
January 13, 2009
Azimuth Systems, Inc., is on a good run. The company today announced that it had reached a number of major milestones marking the company's continued growth in the broadband wireless industry over the past year, increasing its channel emulator revenue by over 30%, increasing its customer base by more than 25%, (including international growth), and the formation of several partnerships with companies and organizations in the broadband wireless space.
Azimuth provides wireless broadband test equipment and channel emulators for Wi-Fi, WiMAX, LTE and 2G/3G cellular technologies.
Jim Iuliano, Azimuth's CEO was understandably pleased:
"Over the course of our history, Azimuth has excelled at adapting to meet the needs of advanced technology testing for the delivery of high-speed wireless voice, data and video services. As we welcome 2009, we hope to build upon this strength and continue to provide our customers with reliable test equipment and channel emulators designed to meet the needs of the latest generation of wireless, carrier-grade networks and solutions for Wi-Fi, WiMAX, LTE and 2G/3G cellular technologies."
Wii, Mii and the iPhone.
January 6, 2009
While waiting at the door of my local Best Buy for a Wii Fit, I noticed that four of the people next to me were iPhone users. Here are some anecdotes.
No one claims to be using the iStore. Apps that cost, are not as important as the Internet itself.
So then what were the requirements for their smartphone, music and browsing. They like listening to the music and AOL music was a hit as well as Shazam.
Both are free but of course you load them via the iStore. So at what point does the iStore really add value. Isn't the Internet the right distribution? When the bandwidth is there? What is the advantage?
Speaking of which, The Wii has been an interesting controlled release. After learning the lessons of overbuilding gaming systems Nintendo has been careful to emphasize profitablility over production counts. So amongst the iPhone users I found someone who was standing on line with his girlfriend but not buying the Wii Fit even though he was one of the first to own the system. The system is no longer that interesting to him and he only uses it when he has friends over. So the profitablity issue has a nuance in the attenuation of this customers attention.
It will be interesting to see what Apple announces today with iLife 09 and the connect of Faces and Places. My own sense is I am getting more and more concerned about keeping my privacy, but I am sure that's just Mii.
No one claims to be using the iStore. Apps that cost, are not as important as the Internet itself.
So then what were the requirements for their smartphone, music and browsing. They like listening to the music and AOL music was a hit as well as Shazam.
Both are free but of course you load them via the iStore. So at what point does the iStore really add value. Isn't the Internet the right distribution? When the bandwidth is there? What is the advantage?
Speaking of which, The Wii has been an interesting controlled release. After learning the lessons of overbuilding gaming systems Nintendo has been careful to emphasize profitablility over production counts. So amongst the iPhone users I found someone who was standing on line with his girlfriend but not buying the Wii Fit even though he was one of the first to own the system. The system is no longer that interesting to him and he only uses it when he has friends over. So the profitablity issue has a nuance in the attenuation of this customers attention.
It will be interesting to see what Apple announces today with iLife 09 and the connect of Faces and Places. My own sense is I am getting more and more concerned about keeping my privacy, but I am sure that's just Mii.
The Evolution Continues - Nortel
December 16, 2008
I am not an analyst so don't expect this to be about Nortel's issues with solvency. For that you can go to the Wall Street Journal.
In that article one statement hit me. "Nortel has been reeling from the sudden drop in demand for its voice-only wireless equipment, cutting costs and trying to sell assets to survive the recession."
This is the issue the carriers are facing and making a choice. They are opting to support data, because of the demand for the wireless Internet and that opportunity is going to be steam rolling in all the carriers.
Voice only has been a hard sell for a while, and Nortel to its credit has been developing some good products that tie into the data world.
When I visit carrier friends, I often find that Nortel is a key component of their vendor strategy, so it will be interesting to see how their woes play out.
In that article one statement hit me. "Nortel has been reeling from the sudden drop in demand for its voice-only wireless equipment, cutting costs and trying to sell assets to survive the recession."
This is the issue the carriers are facing and making a choice. They are opting to support data, because of the demand for the wireless Internet and that opportunity is going to be steam rolling in all the carriers.
Voice only has been a hard sell for a while, and Nortel to its credit has been developing some good products that tie into the data world.
When I visit carrier friends, I often find that Nortel is a key component of their vendor strategy, so it will be interesting to see how their woes play out.
Verizon Ups the Ante and then Blinks
December 12, 2008
Last week the news was all about Clearwire and the $3.2B spend on WiMAX with perhaps some LTE in the future, this week Verizon trumped the spend with over $9B being spent to accelerate their LTE rollout to some area in the US.
All that money going back into the network but where? The chipsets are the first thing that is talked about Sandbridge, and Qualcomm providing chips for devices on the horizon. The backbone needs an upgrade on both the backhaul and the cell towers.
And yet, if we look over at the GPON driven FIOS and the recent gaffs about 100MB to the home we can still wonder exactly what will be done?
While Verizon execs said they could deliver, based on tests 100MB to the home with FIOS, others in the company had to explain that no plans to roll out this solution as a service was in the works based on customer demand.
Which makes me wonder, if they can't find demand for 100MBs in the home, how are they going to find it for a mobile device?
Then again, speaking about the future is not the same as selling it.
Let the Market drive us forward.
All that money going back into the network but where? The chipsets are the first thing that is talked about Sandbridge, and Qualcomm providing chips for devices on the horizon. The backbone needs an upgrade on both the backhaul and the cell towers.
And yet, if we look over at the GPON driven FIOS and the recent gaffs about 100MB to the home we can still wonder exactly what will be done?
While Verizon execs said they could deliver, based on tests 100MB to the home with FIOS, others in the company had to explain that no plans to roll out this solution as a service was in the works based on customer demand.
Which makes me wonder, if they can't find demand for 100MBs in the home, how are they going to find it for a mobile device?
Then again, speaking about the future is not the same as selling it.
Let the Market drive us forward.
WiMAX: The Best of Times, The Worst of Times...
November 20, 2008A new report has just come out from Informa, and the findings have the report's author channeling Dickens. "It's the best and worst of times for WiMAX," says Mike Roberts, principal analyst at Informa, and author of WiMAX Broadband Convergence: Emerging Fixed, Portable & Mobile Internet Markets - 2nd Edition. According to Roberts: WiMAX is a tale of two markets - one being WiMAX as an emerging technology gaining significant momentum in the last year, and the other being the larger converging broadband market, where the runaway success of rival mobile broadband system HSDPA and the acceleration of LTE threatens the opportunity for WiMAX in some markets. On the WiMAX side of the ledger, we find the launch of services by major operators such as Sprint/Clearwire, commitments to WiMAX by major proponents such as Google, and the long-awaited arrival of WiMAX notebooks and other devices. On the flip side, HSDPA has reportedly become a runaway success in many markets worldwide, and emerging LTE technology is ramping up and has secured the support of many major mobile operators. Of course it remains to be seen what will be written in the final chapter of this "tale of two markets." It's clear that we all have great expectations, and while in telecom there is always ample opportunity for at least two market entrants, it's a distinct possibility that for one of these two combatants, it will indeed be a bleak house.
