May 2006 Archives

According to market research firm The Insight Research Corporation, the market for streaming video in the US is poised for strong growth.

According to the company's new report, "Streaming Media, IP TV, and Broadband Transport: Telecommunications Carriers and Entertainment Services 2006-2011", the market for streaming media content will grow at a compounded rate of 33 percent from about $1.3 billion in 2005 to more than $7 billion in 2011.

An executive summary of the report is available here, and provides good information about the trends that will drive this growth.

It seems that as soon as you can think of something, the market responds with an answer...Recently, I blogged about VoIP-enabled PCs and laptops, and a short time ago I rec'd news about a recent deal between Skype and Dell that involves Skype shipping with the new Dell XPS M1210 and XPS M2010 laptops.

In the announcement, Dell will offer Skype as part of an audio/video communications package that also includes an integrated Web cam and mic, noise isolation ear buds, and a mobile broadband antenna. 
The full text of the news release is below:

LUXEMBOURG, May 31, 2006 –Skype and Dell have teamed up to make it easy to stay in touch. Today, Skype, the global Internet communications company, announced an agreement with Dell, the world’s largest maker of personal computers, to ship Skype™ software with new Dell™ XPS™ mobile systems – the XPS M1210 and XPS M2010.

The agreement will allow Dell to provide its customers with easy access to Skype’s voice and video Internet calling software. Dell will be able to pre-load Skype on the XPS 2010, a unique mobile entertainment system featuring a 20.1-inch high-definition display with integrated webcam. The XPS 1210 can be configured with Skype as part of an optional audio-video communications package that also includes an integrated rotating webcam, noise-isolation earbuds and mobile broadband capability.

“As the leading notebook supplier, Dell is committed to delivering cutting-edge technology that provides voice and video connectivity virtually anywhere," said Brett Faulk, worldwide marketing director, consumer notebooks. “Teaming with Skype, the trend setter in Internet communications, will provide our customers the very best experience when reaching out and staying in touch with friends and family around the world.”

“Dell customers will be able to experience the benefits of Skype, optimized for their computing environment. This gives Dell customers a simple way to use the Internet to talk to their friends and family from home, in the office or on-the-go,” said Don Albert, Director of Business Development, Skype North America. “Dell represents a new distribution channel for Skype. New products from Dell will complement the breadth of hardware designed for the convenience of Skype callers.”

With Skype, customers can talk for as long as they like with other Skype customers across the world without worrying about the cost or the distance of the call. Unveiled today, the Dell XPS M1210 and M2010 are available immediately worldwide.

Reality is really stranger than fiction, or at least as strange...

A new movie in theatres recently had a plot centered around the fact that an American Idol-like show garnered more votes for its winner than for the President of the United States.

Well, I almost choked last night while watching the finale of American Idol on my Tivo - apparently the 66+ million votes from callers nominating their favorite singer exceeded the total number of votes ever recorded during an election for President !!!

What in the world are we coming to?...This is truly obscene and scary!

Perhaps, to quote "Chicken Little", "The Sky Really is Falling...!"

According to TeleGeography, a leading telecom market research firm, the number of worldwide high-speed Internet subscriber lines surpassed 221 million at the end of 2005. The number comes out the latest analysis released in TeleGeography's World Broadband Yearbook. Most broadband subscribers -- about 65 percent -- access the Internet via DSL technology.

The global subscriber total increased 37 percent in 2005, from around 162 million a year earlier, and a little over 106 million in 2003. TeleGeography forecasts the total will grow to 286 million by the end of 2006, before climbing to 448 million by 2010.

A Breakdown of Broadband Subscribers Region by Region (from December 2005) is as follows:

• Asia-Pacific - 89,573,436
•  
• Europe - 63,455,527
• U.S. & Canada - 53,270,000
• Latin America + Caribbean - 9,668,888
• Middle East - 3,863,210
• Africa - 1,987,200
• Global total - 221,818,261

TeleGeography's new annual broadband almanac focuses on the world's major broadband service providers and consumer markets, providing analysis of broadband markets in 50 countries as well as market share and subscriber data for over 250 major service providers.

The analysis includes:

• Subscriber growth by operator and technology
• Summary of service plans and tariffs offered by each operator
• Details on operators' network types and technology
• Regulatory analysis for each country with LLU status and VoIP legislation
• Forecasts for broadband growth covering the period 2006-2010

A contact at Cbeyond tell me that the customer "attachment" rate of it's new BeyondVoice  packages with mobile calling options is reaching 25%, which basically means that one-quarter of all its business customers are opting to sign up for a wireless add-on package that includes shared minutes among a company's landline phonesets and mobile phones that come with the packages.

As far as I know, Cbeyond is still the only managed VoIP service provider that has managed to find a way to create a shared pool of minutes.

Some of the innovative wireless features of the company's BeyondVoice packages include:

• The ability to combine and share local, long distance and mobile minutes.
• Additional mobile lines cost $40 each, and include 500 minutes of shared LD/Mobile minutes for each additional line.
• Customers can add mobile lines as their business grows. There is no limit to the number of mobile lines that can be added to the BeyondVoice service packages.
• Customers are able to maximize their long distance minutes, since unused landline minutes are applied to mobile for free.
• Mobile minutes are shared across all employees at no additional charge. Other carriers charge for this capability.
• Massive overages are basically eliminated! Customers pay a low flat rate for each additional minute (currently only 6 cents) used beyond the shared bucket of minutes included in their service packages.

Other notable news include a new integrated voice mail feature that provides a single voice mail box for both landline and wireless numbers -- no need to remember multiple codes to check two separate voice mail systems for messages. Also, message waiting indication appears on both the mobile and office phoneset at the same time.

Other news is a healthy, appreciating stock price, escalating growth in its most established markets (including Atlanta and Dallas), and good progress in the company's newest market, Los Angeles. Reports are the company plans on breaking into a seventh market before the end of the year -- no word yet on where that will be.

I'm almost at the point where I miss my old, trusty (and amateur-mechanic accessible) 1963 Volkswagon Bug. I drove this during the tail end of my college days back in 1980, and it remains one of my all-time favorite cars.

I remember with deep satisfaction and pleasure being able to adjust the valve-timing, perform brake jobs and tune ups, replace hoses, starters, and make just about any other necessary repair. My greasy, dog-eared "Idiots Guide" to Volkswagon Bug Repair was truly a treasured resource.
Now, I drive a high-performance Audi A4 1.8T Quattro -- a so-called Marvel of German Engineering -- I wouldn't even think about sliding under the car or tinkering under the hood. It seems that every repair for this car requires a special degree in computer-aided mechanical engineering!

All the high-performance automotive wonders on the road today are now so complicated, and so inaccessible to us "weekend" mechanics, that we are frankly at the mercy of the dealers and foreign-auto repair shops that have the computer repair code readers and esoteric tools required to diagnose and fix these cars.

And let's not even think about the cost of relatively minor repairs. Recently, I paid off the car and it simultaneously reached the end of its bumper-to-bumper warranty -- and wouldn't you know it -- the fuel pump decides it's time to fail. The dealer who had been servicing the car at least showed mercy and instead of charging me $1080, gave me a "discounted" repair price of $675

I'm sure I'm not the only that laments the loss of control when it comes to auto repair. Who else yearns for the good 'ole days when fuel-injection was only a glimmer in an engineer's eye, and not one computer chip had a home on the chassis?

Just rec'd a nice, heartfelt email from Brian Mahoney, VP Marketing at Netcentrex, thanking all his media and analyst "friends" for helping promote Netcentrex as an industry leader -- and for helping to position the company for the sale to Comverse that just concluded.  The text of the message follows:

Dear friends:

After 4 great years in which Netcentrex increased its visibility from being
perceived as a small French VoIP company to a world leader for VoIP
application servers, triple play, and IMS, I am happy to report that my
efforts--- thanks to you--- have paid off today and the acquisition by
Comverse has officially closed. I cannot tell you how grateful I am to all
of you for being open to listening to my constant, sometimes relentless,
communications about how Netcentrex was innovating in an evolving market. My
hats off to all of you.

My sincere thanks.

-Brian

The link to the full release of the close is here.

Brian -- I have one question. Since you're in such a generous mood, do you plan to share some of the proceeds of your assumed windfall from the sale to all your industry "friends and family"?

You know I'm really just (mostly) kidding. Anyway, here's a big congratulations to you and to all of the Netcentrex team!

A couple of years ago, I started wondering when PC and laptop makers would start building and selling lines of PCs and laptops that were optimized for VoIP -- with a choice of pre-tested, certified and pre-installed software, broadband wireless cards, softphones, headsets, etc. that would make it easy for buyers to "plug and call" without the need to engage in self-installation. I envisioned a model similar to the now common practice of offering sign-up options for ISPs provided on the desktop of most new computers -- you know, the Get AOL, Earthlink, MSN, etc. icons that come preloaded on systems -- but obviously much broader to include related VoIP hardware, VoIP-ready components and distinctive marketing campaigns.

With the latest news about the projected growth of mobile VoIP users, I would think this market opportunity is getting quite ripe. There have been a few news items about laptops that include built-in VoIP features, such as an Acer laptop with a built-in Bluetooth card with integrated speaker, and I seem to remember a new line of laptops launched recently by a company I can't remember and can't find on a Google search. (If you know what I'm talking about, please comment!)

Anyway, I think it's only a short matter of time before some of the boutique computer builders, and even the 800-pound gorillas such as Dell and HP, start offering special VoIP-enabled PC and laptop product lines.

It's only taken six years to happen, but ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) has finally OK'd the .Tel domain name -- a domain that will basically serve as the approved address format for Internet-based phone numbers.

ICANN has picked Telnic, a UK-based group, to administer the addresses, which would work like this:

If you pointed your browser to a Web address that ends in .tel -- robinsconsult.tel, for example -- you would automatically activate an Internet phone call to my company, Robins Consulting Group.

According to Telnic, "A .tel address would also allow someone to "publish and control, in real time, how they can be reached."

"The days of needing to remember several telephone numbers, numerous VOIP [voice over IP] or instant message identities and other points of contact for our social and professional networks are over," Khashayar Mahdavi, Telnic's chief executive officer, is quoted as saying in their press release announcing the ICANN approval.

No date has been set on the actual activation of the domain, however.

First, a disclaimer: I haven't seen the movie yet. But the buzz does not sound good.

Apparently audiences booed, snickered and were less than thrilled. Coupled with the misplaced outrage from far-right religious groups (hello!!, the movie is based on a novel -- a work of fiction), things are not off to a good start.

The book is a great read, and a gripping thriller -- it's really impossible to put down until you're finished. But translating complex stories like this to the big screen is fraught with danger -- more often than not the movie falls way short of the book.

Because I'm such a fan of the book, I'll probably see the movie -- but now I'm thinking I'll wait till it's out on DVD and then add it to my Netflix queue...

Not too long ago, I recently authored a whitepaper on the importance of delivering subscriber quality of experience (QoE) for IPTV success, a project that was commissioned by Spirent Communications. I've been getting a lot of emails and calls lately about this paper, as it seems to have touched on a number of important considerations service providers must take into account as they go down the path of IPTV service delivery.

The paper addresses the current benefits and opportunities for telcos entering the video market, the challenges of developing the network infrastructure required to deliver the highest IPTV QoE, the best method for assessing subscriber QoE, and key requirements for IPTV testing and network assurance.

The gist of the paper is this: As telcos rush to deploy new IP-based network infrastructures and launch new video services, they are faced with a unique set of challenges. First and foremost, they must deliver optimal quality of experience (QoE) to their new and existing subscribers – if they don’t, they risk mass defection to their competition. It's essential, then, that telcos employ a comprehensive video and IPTV testing solution that ensures quality of service not only at each element in the network, but end-to-end in the network as well. Such service assurance initiatives must effectively deal with transport and signaling issues, employ the most relevant and accurate method of measuring customer quality of experience, and provide ongoing monitoring and management of the live network.

A lot of IPTV discussion has focused on QoS considerations -- making sure that the quality of the service delivered to the subscriber is as optimal as possible. However, just focusing on IPTV QoS is potentially shortsighted, since many impairments in video service can sneak under the thresholds established to detect problems. You need to be able to assess the quality of the subscriber experience -- the actual quality of the delivered video signal and performance of the service at the network end-point -- and not just rely on gathering metrics from the network core or edge. What's more, video is far more problematic than voice, and using the same VoIP service testing and monitoring methodologies for IPTV  simply won't do the trick.

Recently, I received a call from Saied Kazemi, president of Millenigence and a new voice commerce service called FruCall. Frucall, in a nutshell, utilizes Voice XML and speech technology to offer shoppers the ability to check the Internet for the lowest prices on items they are viewing live in a retail store's aisle, simply by calling an 888 (toll free) number from their cell phones. Once you find the right price, you can even buy the item from Amazon.com or other shopping site.

As Saied rightly pointed out, we're not yet at the promised land of ubiquituous broadband wireless Internet access and easy to use/highly portable devices for doing things like a shopping.com price search when we're out shopping. If you've tried to use your cell phone's built-in browser to do an online search, you know how frustrating an exercise this can be.

FruCall is currently in beta, and you don't need to register to try it out. So next time you're out shopping, call FruCall at 1-888-FRU-SHOP (1-888-378-7467) before you take the item to the register, and see how much you can save.

This morning, I received both an email and a recorded voice message from my local New York cable MSO, Cablevison, announcing a new International calling plan called Optimum Voice World Call that provides 500 minutes of International calling for existing Optimum Voice customers for an additional monthly charge of $19.95.

For Cablevision triple play customers, this additional cost is not really additional -- here's why -- If you become a triple play subscriber, Cablevision awards you with a $20 discount off your total bill -- making the base $34.95 flat rate charge for domestic Optimum Voice service really $14.95, which in my opinion is a steal. Tack on $19.95 for the World package, and your cost is still under $35 a month!

Here's the skinny on World Call lifted from Cablevision's Web site:

Now we are bringing the same great Optimum Voice pricing to international calling with Optimum Voice® World Call — call anywhere in the world, anytime for one low price! Talk as long as you want! Up to 500 minutes of calling anywhere in the world, day or night. That's over 8 hours of talk time a month! No hidden fees and no per-minute or connection charges. Same low rate every month with no surprises. It's easy to use — just pick up and call directly from your Optimum Voice home phone — no extra numbers or special codes to dial. Monitor your usage at the My Optimum Voice website. Easy billing to your Cablevision account — no prepaid calling cards to purchase.

Order Now — Easy to buy online, it takes just a few minutes Frequently Asked Questions

Available to new or existing Optimum Voice customers. Accounts in good standing only. Monthly rate of $19.95 includes 500 minutes per month of international calls. Customers exceeding 500 minutes in a given month will be charged an additional $19.95 for an additional 500 minutes for use that month. Customers exceeding 1,000 minutes per month will be required to request additional time. Available only via direct dial from customer's Optimum Voice phone. Remote dialing is not available. Calls to satellite phones and audiotext lines/destinations not available. Where available. Other restrictions apply.

As per the above tiny type, if you go over 500 minutes you'll be charged an additional $19.95, and if you go over 1000 minutes you need to make a special request for more time. Notwithstanding these restrictions, this move definitely raises the bar for other broadband VoIP service providers, and I expect many to counter with similar offers.

In a year or so, U.S. airline passengers will be able make and take VoIP calls while jetting around the country. An FCC frequency auction is currently underway that will allow for in-flight VoIP calls, and nine companies, including Verizion Communication's Airfone division, JetBlue Airways, AC BidCo, Acadia Broadand, AMTS Consortium, Intelligent Transport & Monitoring Wireless, Space Data Spectrum Holdings, and Unison Spectrum, are in the bidding. Two winners are expected in the auction for spectrum in the 800 Mhz band.

Although Airfone already offers phone service on many flights, the high cost of such service has served to greatly limit its use.

I expect a backlash from frequent flyers and some airline attendants who (understandably) want some peace and quiet while they fly hither and fro, and it will also provide some new fodder for comedians on Comedy Central, but if in-flight calling costs truly do come down to earth, I predict it'll be wildly successful.
 

According to a new market study by Infonetics Research, worldwide telecom and datacom equipment revenue are projected to grow from $107.9 billion in 2005 to $143.5 billion in 2009, mostly due to an annual growth rate of 99 percent for IPTV equipment and exploding VoIP-equipment sales.

According to the study, the largest portion of revenue comes from wireless broadband and mobile radio access equipment, but the growth is being largely driven by "phenomenal growth" in service provider next generation voice equipment and broadband aggregation and IPTV equipment.

The report highlights three trends that are driving growth: broadband Internet access; service providers migrating to a converged network infrastructure for voice, video, and data; and the convergence of mobile and fixed wireline networks of data, voice, and video.

The report also reveals that:

* Cisco is the revenue-leading vendor in worldwide telecom/datacom equipment market share, with 19%. Nortel is in second place, and Huawei is third, followed closely by fourth-place Alcatel and fifth-place Siemens.

* The service provider next-generation voice and IMS market will double from two percent of the total telecom/datacom market to four percent in 2009, driven by the move to IMS and by fixed-mobile convergence.