I bought a netbook, then I returned it without even opening it. It was a good deal, but even still the price was so close to the cost of a full-fledged laptop (with optical drive, bigger hard drive, bigger screen, etc...) that I thought I would either continue to live without or simply wait until the next generation of netbooks arrived.
I have always believed that the holidays are the worst time to buy technology as the stuff they announce at CES a month later is always more exciting. (I take buyer's remorse to extreme levels when it comes to gadgets and tech...)
Maybe waiting was a good thing.
ABI Research just released its forecast for a "market explosion" of netbooks, estimating that in 2009 we can expect to see 35 million netbooks shipped, growing to 139 million by 2013.
ABI Research Practice Director Kevin Burden describes the evolution of the portable computing tool, from the PDAs of "old" to the latest ultra-mobile PCs or UMPCs:
PDA's began our reliance on instant accessible data while traveling. When PDA functionality converged with cellular voice, smartphones became the new darling of mobile professional technology that many expected to evolve into the hub for all data and communication needs for travelling professionals. Today, with a better understanding for what a smartphone is, is not, and may never be, along with a reality check on the usefulness of UMPCs, the market remains open for new device types.
Smartphones did a lot to raise our comfort level with mobile technology as well our expectations for how connected we could be and how accessible information and data should be while on the road. Enter the netbook with its light-weight, medium-sized form factor and low-cost processors leading to moderate overall price points may finally have "right-sized" mobile technology for productive travels.
The jury is still out as far as I'm concerned. Netbooks offer a great space saving form factor and light weight, but most keyboards come in at 15-20% smaller than a traditional laptop. For a poor typist (read: fat fingers) like myself, is it worth that particular pain? Netbooks are the perfect device to leverage the wealth of Web-based apps and "from the cloud" computing tools, but why is it so hard to find one with built-in 3G wireless? What about battery life? When can I expect to get 6-8 hours from a single charge?
I know, I know, I've read the reports of HP's amazing 8-hour battery life and I've heard about Radio Shack's great deal ($99) that combines an Asus netbook with AT&T's 3G service. But that $99 turns into $1,500 bucks when you factor the cost of the service over the 2-year commitment.
Still I am intrigued by the form factor, and I believe that there is definitely a niche, whether it's for people who are extremely cost conscious, or simply looking for an alternate device fort raveling and so on.
Regardless of what I think, ABI believes we're on the verge of some serious netbook deployments. As they say, watch this space...
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