Recently in Mobility Category

In-Stat: WiMAX Market Strong, Yet Some Vendors Shrink from Opportunity

February 10, 2009 10:09 AM
According to industry researcher In-Stat, "Broadband communications have become a crucial communications tool, so demand for mobile WiMAX technology remains strong."
 
But some vendors, especially those slow to migrate to the latest standards, might not be willing to wait around for that demand to translate into tangible sales.
 
"While the market for 802.16e will continue to grow, it does not mean happy days are here for every vendor," says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst. "In-Stat expects to see more infrastructure vendors pull back or leave the WiMAX market entirely. This is especially true for vendors that have been slow moving from 802.16d to the 802.16e standard."
 
According to the In-Stat research:
·         WiMAX base station revenues grew by 137.9% in 2008.
·         Global WiMAX subscriptions will be over 85 million by the end of 2013.
·         Deployments of 802.16e are contributing to the decline of sales in the fixed WiMAX standard, 802.16d.
 
Seems to me that this market opportunity is real and continues to evolve. With some vendors pulling out before the market matures, it appears that there will be more to go around for the remaining players that do hang in there.

The Bell Has NOT Rung on WiMAX

January 30, 2009 5:08 PM
So there's been quite a bit of buzz this past few weeks about the potential demise of WiMAX.
 
First Nokia stopped production of their WiMAX device, then there was some news about Intel writing off their entire investment in the venture with Clearwire... It was covered all over TMCnet, but Rich summed it up nicely in his post: The Trillion Dollar Question - Is WiMAX Dying?
 
Now, LTE has its proponents and WiMAX has its detractors, but Carl Ford, writing on the 4GWE blog points out the following:
 
While many want me to point to LTE as the clear winner, I don't think this would be a sign of WiMAX's apocalypse. I instead see this as a prudent move on Nortel's part to emphasize the pieces of the solutions they own. Partnerships in Telecom are pretty easily forced by the carriers, and the real story is that no carrier is forcing Nortel to support WiMAX.
 
This maybe proof that WiMAX is in trouble, but it's more likely proof that the legacy Nortel customers are not looking for Nortel to go into new areas with them.
 
So I asked Scenna Tabesh, director of marketing communications for the WiMAX Forum, for some insight into the Nortel situation as well as the future co-existence of the two 4G approaches, LTE and WiMAX. Tabesh's thoughts appear in italics:
 
What does it mean to the WiMAX community that Nortel is reportedly jettisoning its Alvarion-based WiMAX offering?
 
No one is immunized from the global financial crisis. While the WiMAX industry anticipates a slowdown in general, WiMAX Forum still believes that at least 100 more WiMAX operators will launch commercial services in 2009. This number was expected to be higher; however, the market turmoil caused investors to become more cautious and focus on tighter risk management. Despite a tightening in investment, companies with sound business models and proven technologies, such as WiMAX, will still obtain funding during this challenging time. Meantime, we continue to be encouraged by the fact that the WiMAX industry has been growing at a reasonable pace since 2007. Toward this end, there were about 200 WiMAX networks deployed in 2008 alone. WiMAX Forum leadership surrounding the evolution of technology standards and introduction of Mobile WiMAX Certified products are on track, with the active support of the global telecommunications/wireless ecosystem.
 
Is there room in the market for two competing technologies (LTE & WiMAX)?
 
The WiMAX Forum believes the two technologies will co-exist. WiMAX is included in the IMT-2000 family of mobile wireless interface standards and is supported by a broad, open and innovative ecosystem including more than 500 member companies in the WiMAX Forum. This open ecosystem is one of the many strengths of WiMAX - it brings the flexibility of the computing industry model to the mobile world. This includes an open IPR model led by the Open Patent Alliance. Toward this end, WiMAX has already established itself in the 3.5 GHz band with deployments in every region. This is in addition to large 2.5 GHz deployments in major markets such as the US, Japan, and India. As an established technology - WiMAX is here now. There are 407 WiMAX deployments in 133 countries, over 480 WiMAX-enabled devices in development by over 80 suppliers, and there are more major WiMAX spectrum auctions on the horizon (India, Argentina, the UK, etc.).
 
Conversely, LTE currently has zero deployments. While marketed as an "evolution," LTE networks are a completely new upgrade. They require new infrastructure and new spectrum. While WiMAX is already in deployment, new spectrum or the re-farming of wide swaths of 2G spectrum will be necessary to free up spectrum to deploy LTE and take advantage of the wider channel bandwidths that are supported. LTE will also take time to roll out, with deployments forecast to reach limited adoption by 2012. LTE networks will require new client devices and service providers will need to purchase new radio access network (RAN) equipment in addition to upgrading their core networks to handle additional IP-based traffic.
 
 
The bottom line is this - it's still too early to bury the survivors so to speak. This market is just now getting its legs, it's early days for certain. It's a time for competing technologies, and for vendors to make and break alliances. It's that exciting time where everything is possible and yet we need to proceed cautiously.
 
If you're new to this market -- and most everyone is -- it makes sense to find a good source of education, to get a better understanding of the trends, vendors, politics... etc... that are driving this market today and will in the end determine the eventual "winners."
 
That education is available at the 4GWE Conference, which is taking place in Miami Beach next week (February 2-4) in Miami Beach.
 

ABI Research: Netbooks to Play Secondary Role

January 30, 2009 10:23 AM
Looks like ABI has been spending a lot of time researching the netbook market.
 
A November 2008 study targeting 1,000 North American adults found that only 11% would use a netbook as their primary computer while 79% would purchase a netbook for use in concert with a laptop or desktop computer.
 
According to ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis, "While their low price does cause some consumers to view netbooks as a replacement for a laptop given the current economic conditions, the majority view a netbook as being a secondary device."
 
"Even as a device that is secondary to the PC, this has to cut into the laptop market somewhat. When considering another laptop as an additional device mostly for browsing the web and using other Internet-based communications applications, consumers will find netbooks to be an appropriate alternative."
 

Dell to Enter Smartphone Fray?

January 30, 2009 8:56 AM
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Dell is planning to release two new SMARTPHONES at the upcoming Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona.
 
To say it's a tall order to break into this market would be an understatement. Just ask Motorola how tough it could be. And Nokia... And Ericsson...
 
Blackberry is hot with their Storm smartphone, and of course Apple keeps moving iPhone after iPhone. Even the Google phone from T-Mobile (T1) is enjoying some success.
 
But that's quite a lineup to sidle up to and say "I want to compete with you."
 
The reports say that Dell would release a Windows Mobile version and an Android version as well.
 
Sure, Dell has competed (and for a while was winning the battle) on the PC and laptop front. They have the wherewithal to market and move products and accessories.
 
But will they compete on design? Ease of use? Access to apps? Price?
 
Time will tell.

Report: Consumers Willing to Pay for Citywide WiFi

January 28, 2009 9:05 AM
An interesting report came across my desk; especially noteworthy in light of the economic conditions plaguing the landscape.
 
According to the "Devicescape Wi-Fi Report" consumers say that they want citywide WiFi and they are willing to pay for it.
 
The official announcement of the study will be out tomorrow, but I was fortunate enough to get advance notice.
 
The report was conducted by Decipher, Inc. on behalf of Devicescape and several other players in the WiFi space, and quizzed more than 2,700 WiFi users for their opinions about the technology.
 
Key findings from the report include:
 
  • An overwhelming number of WiFi users expect WiFi while traveling (91%);
  • Most respondents (84%) want citywide WiFi, and many (56%) are willing to pay for it as they would a utility;
  • When traveling, the most-often used device for accessing Wi-Fi was the smartphone, such as an iPhone (vs. laptops);
  • The overwhelming majority of smartphone users (81%) prefer using WiFi over 3G for browsing Web sites, downloading data, Google searches and sending e-mail;
  • 86% of respondents want OEMs to build Wi-Fi into their handsets;
  • 82% of respondents want the service provider to provide an overall 3G/WiFi data package
 
The study also found that consumers often find it difficult to get and stay connected to a WiFi network when using a smartphone. The report found that "complicated login screens" were among the most common frustration consumers had when attempting to connect to a WiFi hotspot, and that nearly 90% of handset users want their service provider to offer seamless roaming between 3G and Wi-Fi networks.

Femtocells in the News

January 28, 2009 8:36 AM
The femtocell is indicative of much in the technology world these days.
 
Analysts are generally in agreement that the market opportunity is large, and yet fits and starts - typical of early days in any sector -- abound. Verizon's newly released Network Extender has met with mixed results. T-Mobile's HotSpot@Home service was well received, but ran into a bit of a patent issue late last year. And Ars Technica is reporting today that AT&T slipped up and released details of their offering into the space:
 
The new offering will be called 3G MicroCell, supports voice and 3G data, and allows 4 simultaneous calls or data sessions.
 
The product details reported on a new AT&T page, since pulled, were discovered by Engadget and SlipperyBrick.
 
Adding to the femtocell conversation, IntelliNet Technologies today announced the development of a new integrated femtocell gateway, which combines a femtocell access point controller with a carrier grade security gateway in an industry standard AdvancedTCA platform.
 
The idea behind this offering is to give service providers and wireless operators the ability to manage thousands of femtocells at once.
 
Anjan Ghosal, president and CEO of IntelliNet Technologies said:
 
Cellular phone service is now in line with traditional wireline as a subscriber's primary mode of communication. Our femtocell gateway offers carriers the means to heighten subscriber loyalty by drastically improving call coverage in the home or office building - areas notorious for poor service.

Analyst: Netbooks to Surge

January 26, 2009 11:03 AM
I bought a netbook, then I returned it without even opening it. It was a good deal, but even still the price was so close to the cost of a full-fledged laptop (with optical drive, bigger hard drive, bigger screen, etc...) that I thought I would either continue to live without or simply wait until the next generation of netbooks arrived.
 
I have always believed that the holidays are the worst time to buy technology as the stuff they announce at CES a month later is always more exciting. (I take buyer's remorse to extreme levels when it comes to gadgets and tech...)
 
Maybe waiting was a good thing.
 
ABI Research just released its forecast for a "market explosion" of netbooks, estimating that in 2009 we can expect to see 35 million netbooks shipped, growing to 139 million by 2013.
 
ABI Research Practice Director Kevin Burden describes the evolution of the portable computing tool, from the PDAs of "old" to the latest ultra-mobile PCs or UMPCs:
 
PDA's began our reliance on instant accessible data while traveling. When PDA functionality converged with cellular voice, smartphones became the new darling of mobile professional technology that many expected to evolve into the hub for all data and communication needs for travelling professionals. Today, with a better understanding for what a smartphone is, is not, and may never be, along with a reality check on the usefulness of UMPCs, the market remains open for new device types.
 
Smartphones did a lot to raise our comfort level with mobile technology as well our expectations for how connected we could be and how accessible information and data should be while on the road. Enter the netbook with its light-weight, medium-sized form factor and low-cost processors leading to moderate overall price points may finally have "right-sized" mobile technology for productive travels.
 
The jury is still out as far as I'm concerned. Netbooks offer a great space saving form factor and light weight, but most keyboards come in at 15-20% smaller than a traditional laptop. For a poor typist (read: fat fingers) like myself, is it worth that particular pain? Netbooks are the perfect device to leverage the wealth of Web-based apps and "from the cloud" computing tools, but why is it so hard to find one with built-in 3G wireless? What about battery life? When can I expect to get 6-8 hours from a single charge?
 
I know, I know, I've read the reports of HP's amazing 8-hour battery life and I've heard about Radio Shack's great deal ($99) that combines an Asus netbook with AT&T's 3G service. But that $99 turns into $1,500 bucks when you factor the cost of the service over the 2-year commitment.
 
Still I am intrigued by the form factor, and I believe that there is definitely a niche, whether it's for people who are extremely cost conscious, or simply looking for an alternate device fort raveling and so on.
 
Regardless of what I think, ABI believes we're on the verge of some serious netbook deployments. As they say, watch this space...

Mobile Backhaul Certification

January 21, 2009 8:46 AM

A new certification program, designed to act as a benchmark for mobile operators, backhaul providers and end users was launched by the IP/MPLS Forum today.

 

The Mobile Backhaul Certification program will initially focus on certifying standards-compliant implementations of Circuit Emulation services over MPLS as defined in the IP/MPLS Forum's MPLS Mobile Backhaul Initiative (MMBI), which defines how MPLS can be used to backhaul TDM traffic for mobile operators.

 

The certification program will lay out a set of guidelines and test procedures and will be administered by Iometrix, the Forum's certified lab partner.

 

According to Andrew G. Malis, Chairman and President of the IP/MPLS Forum:

 

The Mobile Backhaul Certification Program represents a needed step in the evolution of MPLS solutions which have already proven in lab trials to be ready to meet the needs of operators around the world.

 

The first group of certified vendors will be announced at the MPLS Ethernet World Congress in Paris this February.

 

TMCnet columnist Dr. Alan Solheim, Vice President of Product Management at DragonWave illustrates the opportunity in the backhaul segment in his most recent column submission.

 

According to Solheim:

 

If any networks get built, backhaul wins. If any backhaul gets built, packet radio wins. So while I wouldn't break out the champagne just yet I do believe there is a case for optimism amidst all the doom and gloom

Backhaul Looks Good

January 16, 2009 12:47 PM
Dragonwave's Vice President of Product Management Dr. Alan Solheim, author of The Middle Mile column that appears regularly on TMCnet, has a new column just out that offers up a hopeful message in light of the rest of the economic bad news that's out there these days.
 
According to Solheim, the outlook for the backhaul market is bright:
 
...the opportunity in front of the backhaul segment in general, and that for packet based radios in particular, is relatively bright. If any networks get built, backhaul wins. If any backhaul gets built, packet radio wins. So while I wouldn't break out the champagne just yet I do believe there is a case for optimism amidst all the doom and gloom. Sometimes it is good to be in the right place at the right time.

Praise for LTE, WiMAX' Bad Week

January 9, 2009 11:06 AM
 
Market researcher ABI Research has released a new study that points to continued enthusiasm for LTE deployment.
 
Coming on the heels of a turbulent week for WiMAX (see: Intel's $950 million investment write-down and Nokia ceasing production of its only WiMAX device) it's a positive sign indeed for this 4G technology.
 
Now before we get carried away with the premature burial of WiMAX, it's important to note that Clearwire did light up a new city this week (Portland, OR) and has plans to start service in up to nine other cities in 2009. Let's wait before we get out the shovels.
 
Still ABI's report Long Term Evolution (LTE) draws attention to the fact that Verizon, (possibly sensing some blood in the water?) has reportedly moved up their LTE deployment plans by a year, from 2010 to 2009.
 
ABI notes that globally, 18 operators have announced LTE rollout plans.
 
Writing in the recent report, ABI Research senior analyst Nadine Manjaro said,
 
ABI Research believes that NTT will also deploy LTE in Japan in 2009. We forecast that by 2013 operators will spend over $8.6 billion on LTE base station infrastructure alone. For operators that have already deployed 3G networks, LTE will be a key CAPEX driver over the next five years.
 
Manjaro also notes that LTE application development could be a major driver of investment as operators explore which services to deploy.
 
As an example, Manjaro looks to Sprint and Verizon and their plans to provide third-party access to their GPS data.
 
The resulting new applications will tie mobility and presence aspects together to create more compelling services than in the past. This is significant because it represents the beginning of a new generation of application development which will leverage the vast amounts of data in operators' networks.
 
Carriers looking to deploy 4G technology face the same financial difficulties as the rest of us. However one cannot lose sight of the fact that on the other side of this financial mess, one might imagine a new period of growth. Companies that make investments in technology today might not see an immediate return however, they should take solace that the evolution to broadband wireless is going to happen sooner or later.
 
To learn more about the opportunities in the emerging 4G space, consider the 4GWE Conference, which is taking place in Miami Beach this February 2-4.
 
The show will feature keynotes from Intel and Qualcomm as well as over 50 speakers from companies such as Fujitsu, Google, Dialogic, IBM, SkyTerra and others.
 
The conference promises to deliver an unmatched educational experience. 4GWE Attendees will learn:
 
·         How the history and evolution of the cellular network will in part determine the evolution to 4G
·         The major differences between the competing technologies of WiMAX and LTE
·         The killer applications for both the consumer and business customer
·         How 4G will effect social networking applications
·         How 4G will significantly change content distribution
·         Where venture money will be spent
·         What mobile devices will be developed to support 4G
 
Take a look at the event Web site for more information.
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