VoIP to Peak by 2014? Come on.

Greg Galitzine : Greg Galitzine's VoIP Authority Blog
Greg Galitzine

VoIP to Peak by 2014? Come on.

According to an item from In-Stat:

"The international telecommunications industry is in the early stages of a migration to Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), reports In-Stat. The big question is when will a mass migration to VoIP occur? 2005-2009 is the consumer and small business VoIP ramp-up period, and migration to VoIP will peak in the 2010-2014 time frame, the high tech market research firm says. This time frame is largely dependent on carriers' strategies for migration to the Next-Generation Network (NGN)."

I generally tend to agree that increasing amounts of residential users, small businesses, and large enterprises will become consumers of VoIP services. Noone really knows how long this will take, but I find no fault with In-Stat's assertion that we'll see a ramp-up to 2009, and even higher numbers in 2010-2014. My only beef is the assertion that VoIP will "peak."

Let me ask you, when do you think telephony will peak? When will calling your Mom on Mother's day "peak"? VoIP is not some new "thing" that will go away when people get tired of playing with it. VoIP is an enabling technology that enables "talking" over long distances. The fact that it does so much more is not the relevant point here.

2014 means nothing. When we hit global teledensity (or some mid 21st century version thereof) of 30-40-50 % then we can talk about peaking.

Still, I like the fact that In-Stat projects big things for VoIP. Who can argue with that?

Feedback for VoIP to Peak by 2014? Come on.


that's because by 2014, VoIP will become Video over IP? ;)

I'm a big believer in the increasing use of video communications as quality improves and prices drop. But do you really foresee a world in which video replaces voice telephony?

A quick call from the supermarket asking "How much milk did we need?" Or a call from the car stuck in traffic to say "I'll be late for dinner..." No need for video there. Of course maybe it's all headed to some Jetsons-style future where every communication includes a visual, but I doubt we'll see it by 2014.

Fun to speculate though.

They're saying the Migration to VoIP will peak, not VoIP will peak. Migration has to peak at some point.

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