April 2009 Archives

 

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eBay just sold StumbleUpon to its original founders and returns it with triple the registered users or about 7.5 million. The site was sold to eBay in May of 2007 for $75 million and eBay has recently said the site has little synergy with its core business. Why is this important? Simply because the same comments were made about Skype and rumors are flying that Skype too will be sold. Certainly the Stumbleupon sale makes it more likely that eBay will unload all non-core holdings which means Skype could be sold this year as well.

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Surgeries Move to Twitter

April 13, 2009 7:38 PM | 1 Comment

In a world where it has become commonplace to digitally detail the events of our daily lives, it should come as no surprise that operations are being Twittered live. Most recently Aurora St. Luke's Medical Center announced it will will broadcast a bi-lateral knee replacement surgery April 16, 2009 at 9:00 EST. If you can't get enough of bloody surgery on TV, this Wisconsin-based hospital will let you take it with you LIVE! Here are the links... Enjoy:

What's next for Twitter? How about break-ups, divorces, firings, layoffs... Question is -- will we know when we have crossed the line or is that just not possible?

Scalpel -- STAT
Cameraphone -- STAT
Syringe -- STAT
Forceps -- STAT
Blackberry -- STAT
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YouTube will lose just under a half a billion dollars in 2009 and the problem is the massive volumes of user-generated content which are difficult if not impossible to monetize. Going forward, YouTube may need to change business models where it either charges a subscription for usage or shows only high-quality content. A great article by Silicon Alley Insider (get your dictionary out first) goes over the situation in detail. What can we learn from this story? Even Google, one of the world's richest companies may not be able to subsidize money-losing social-networking sites forever. Sure YouTube is the leading video site on the web but guess what... We have done a 180 from the dotcom days where eyeballs were enough. You see, even though we thought the dotcom bubble bursting was the end of eyeball-only business models, it seems social networking mania spurred by Facebook, LinkedIn, etc prevented investors from focusing exclusively on profit. If YouTube has its business model modified in some way to ensure the site comes closer to profitability, it could be the final sign to the market that companies need to focus primarily on profit and not eyeballs.

Having said that, there are potential business models Google is toying with and eventually one of them could strike gold. One that comes to mind is a toolbar integrated with network programming allowing the site to become the conduit to all TV viewing via a queuing system allowing users to add programming which will run in order. Some sort of video Pandora emulation comes to mind as well.

The revenue would be shared by network broadcasters who would flash video ads just like they do on TV.

An interesting thought here is how YouTube is responsible for massive volumes of video traffic which in aggregate is causing internet operators to upgrade their networks and complain incessantly about Google. The irony is Google generates massive traffic for a service which loses it money. And there are service providers who want to cut them off or slow their traffic or charge them to carry their traffic with priority. Would global carriers have a better relationship with Google if they drastically reduced their "bandwidth footprint?" I vote yes. It seems YouTube is much more of a problem for Google than just lost revenue.

Thanks to Richard Shockey for bringing this article to my attention.

The talk of the weekend in the world of IP communications is whether Skype would be better off in the hands of original founders Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis. You see, the New York Times is reporting the pair is interested in acquiring the VoIP software company from eBay who says there are few synergies between Skype and its current business model.

What Skype would gain from such a deal would be the addition of the legendary leader Niklas Zennstrom as spokesman. There is value in having him keynoting as the company's head. In the past, Zennstrom wowed crowds at ITEXPO more than once.

As I read the New York Times story I just couldn't help but wonder how one of the world's largest ecommerce companies does not see synergy with the world's largest internet telephony software company. For example, the fact that I don't see ads for eBay auctions as I wait for calls to connect is mindboggling.

In my last conversation with Zennstrom he mentioned to me there could be some powerful synergies between Skype and Joost, his internet television service. An acquisition could allow him to have a ubiquitous client which could be used to gain leverage on numerous content providers. You see Joost is not achieving the mainstream traffic it needs and its alexa rank is in the 4,100 range which I estimate to mean 2-3 million unique visitors on a monthly basis. Quantcast says Joost gets 491,000 monthly US visitors while a competitor Hulu gets 13,600,000 US visitors per month.

Although it is difficult to understand how eBay doesn't see synergies, Skype itself doesn't need to go anywhere. It is doing fine under eBay IMHO and it is rolling out new features and functions at a nice clip and gaining new users by the million. If anything, eBay needs Skype to ensure it has multiple sources of revenue and for this reason, it would be a mistake to sell Skype too cheaply.

During the dotcom boom, Bill Gates made a speech where he explained how if the auto industry had kept up with the computer industry we would be driving $25 cars which get 1,000 miles to each gallon. GM was said to have responded with a press release which among other things said if Microsoft designed cars they would crash twice a day and occasionally, for no reason, your car would lock you out and refuse to let you in until you simultaneously lifted the door handle, turned the key and grabbed the radio antenna. The complete list is here and sadly the GM press release was never released - it is internet folklore.

But Gates it seems really does want to change the way the auto industry works as there was a recent patent filed by Intellectual Ventures which describes an electromagnetic engine with the potential for opposing pistons and the ability to have pistons move without the need for sparks - meaning electrically controlled pistons. A traditional piston compresses a mixture of gas and air and a spark causes an explosion which causes the piston to move and eventually move the wheels.
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Oh and by the way, Nathan Myhrvold, Microsoft's former chief technology officer runs Intellectual Ventures, which explains the Bill Gates connection.

This patent is interesting because the engine is configurable which means there is potential for software to continuously alter the way it operates. The patent further describes that sparks may not be used at all to get the engine to move and like  diesel fuel, compression alone will be enough to generate a reaction which moves the piston(s).

TechFlash seems to have broken this story and mentions in a post that this engine one ups the Wankel, rotary engine and they could be right. The Wankel, currently powering the Mazda RX-8 consists of a triangular piece of metal called a rotor in what is effectively a large pot or keg. Instead of pistons which go up and down, the triangular rotor spins in the same direction. First fuel and air are pumped into a chamber and as the rotor spins the air and fuel are compressed in a smaller chamber. Next a spark ignites the mixtures which continues the process. Wankel engines by the way are not great on gas but they provide a good amount of power for their size and weight. It is this engine by the way which allowed the last generation Mazda RX-7 pictured to be one of the greatest sports cars of all time (extreme personal bias at play - bewaresmile ).
 

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I haven't read the patent but for those car/tech people out there it will likely be very interesting.

Here is an excerpt:

[0082]In some embodiments, engines include permanent magnets or electromagnets. In either case, the engine may include thermal shielding, insulation, or other thermal control apparatus (e.g., a cooling system) that functions to maintain temperatures of selected engine components within a desired range. In particular, a thermal control system may act to maintain a magnetic material below its Curie temperature.

[0083]The Figures depict several different configurations of single or dual pistons in cylinders. In some embodiments, an engine may include a plurality of cylinders, which may be of the same or of different types. Pistons in different cylinders may operate independently, or may be operatively coupled (e.g., mechanically coupled as by connection to a common crankshaft). In particular, an engine may include control electronics that select whether to operate a piston, and which piston to operate, in response to a determined actual or predicted operating condition (e.g., incline of the engine or of a vehicle powered by the engine, temperature, current draw, speed, acceleration, braking, load such as gross vehicle weight, fuel composition, engine emissions, power, local rules such as emissions limits, or engine settings). For example, when power draw is relatively heavy, the control electronics may run pistons more frequently or run more cylinders. When power draw is relatively light, the control electronics may run fewer pistons, including not running a piston at all.

[0084]In embodiments in which the pistons are not coupled to one another in a configuration that maintains their relative phase (e.g., via connection to a common crankshaft), they may be operated synchronously or asynchronously. As used herein in connection with piston timing, the term "asynchronous" means that the cylinders are operated with at least one stroke having a different duration or velocity profile from cylinder to cylinder, so that a constant phase relationship is not maintained between substantially simultaneous piston cycles. Examples of asynchronous piston operation include operating two pistons at different cycle frequencies or operating one piston while leaving another substantially stationary.

[0085]In each of the illustrated embodiments, a converter (which may include coils or another variable reluctance or variable inductance circuit) is connected to an energy management system. The energy management system operates as an energy source and sink, drawing power from the piston during the power stroke and returning power to the piston during other strokes. Power conversion systems that can accept power inputs of variable length or amplitude and convert them to supply a substantially constant voltage are described, for example in U.S. Pat. No. 4,399,499, which is incorporated herein by reference. Such conversion systems may be used to condition power intake from the engine to make it more useful for other purposes, such as for driving a vehicle. The energy management system may also accept power inputs from other sources, for example from regenerative braking systems. The energy management system may store power in an energy storage device such as a battery or a capacitor (including a supercapacitor, ultracapacitor, or hypercapacitor). U.S. Pat. No. 6,590,360, which is incorporated herein by reference, describes a switching circuit designed to transfer energy in both directions between a battery and a motor/generator that may be used for this purpose. In some embodiments, the energy management system may also power auxiliary devices such as water pumps, oil pumps, fuel pumps, fans, or compressors.

On my way home after the whirlwind tour of Las Vegas where I met with
many communications and tech companies.

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MetaSwitch User Forum 2009 Party

April 7, 2009 11:28 PM | 0 Comments

We had a great time at this party tonight and it seems after the Skype party last week and this one today that you can't have a party in telecom in Vegas without an ice sculpturewink .

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Who is Bidding on Nortel?

April 7, 2009 6:54 PM | 0 Comments

According to the Wall Street Journal, there are a number of companies vying for pieces of Nortel. The LTE research and carrier groups may go to Nokia Siemens Networks or NSN if the JV between Nokia and Siemens has its way. NSN sends my editorial team news of a win a day from around the world but few of these are in the US. This acquisition would help cement the joint venture as a true global player with much more strength in North America.

Avaya and Siemens are bidding for the enterprise portions and either company is a natural fit. Avaya has a strong contact center business what would be helped by this deal and Siemens too would have natural synergies. In addition The Gores Group the private equity firm behind Siemens also owns SER - a once mighty predictive dialing company which has gone dead silent for a number of years. Silent or not SER has a huge installed base of contact center customers and there are synergies to be had as a merged entity. Gores also owns Sagem Communications, First Communications and Enterasys so it would seem Gores has a natural affinity for our space.

Remember also this acquisition comes with a strong Microsoft UC relationship. And that value will likely not carry much weight in an auction with limited participation and in these financial times.

Genband too is throwing its hat in the ring looking at Nortel's digital switching and media gateway business. Genband has been pretty impressive in the market and is well-regarded - I am curious to see if they get what they are after and at the right price.

Apparently Cisco is not interested in any of the company's assets and I am not too surprised. John Chambers generally does not like large acquisitions and he doesn't like them when they are far away. Moreover I just can't see them being able to acquire many of Nortel's pieces due to antitrust concerns.

What is good for Nortel bondholders is the fact that there are a few companies interested in these disparate parts of the company. And there are likely more companies involved than we know about. This should mean the price tags won't be atrocious. Of course one man's cheap is another man's expensive.

We'll see what happens in the coming months.

MetaSwitch User Forum Keynote 1

April 7, 2009 12:52 PM | 0 Comments

John Lazar and Graeme MacArthur have taken the stage and kicked off by
discussing the economic climate and how telecom and broadband are the
last things consumers will stop spending on.

Amazingly a survey shows people will cut spending on personal care
before broadband!

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MetaSwitch User Forum Keynote 1

April 7, 2009 12:00 PM | 0 Comments

John Lazar and Graeme MacArthur have taken the stage and kicked off by
discussing the economic climate and how telecom and broadband are the
last things consumers will stop spending on.

Amazingly a survey shows people will cut spending on personal care
before broadband!

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Here we are in a keynote address waiting for Graeme MacArthur and John
Lazar. Breakfast was good... Lots of networking with rural carriers.

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MetaSwitch seems to be doing very well - with an increase in attendance at their user forum from 550 last year to 625 this year. Do I have to tell you that pulling this off in this market is something to be proud of? Oh and did I tell you the show was in Vegas? Did I mention the president of the US has told the nation indirectly to not go to shows in Vegas? Apparently no one in these photos gets CNN which is likely very good for MetaSwitch and the Las Vegas convention business.
So far some of the people I saw were Rich Williams, Carol Daniels, Jon Arnold, Doug Mohney and John Lazar, company CEO. Here are shots of the opening night reception.

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Shots From HDI 2009

April 7, 2009 1:40 AM | 0 Comments

I stopped by the HDI 2009 Show in Las Vegas and met with a number of the companies there. The show focused on service and support companies seemed to have a good buzz. There were a number of old friends in attendance. Here are some random photos.

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BetaMax is an interesting technology for Nokia to compare WiMAX to because both technologies end in the last three letters but does it go farther? After all, many will tell you BetaMax was superior to VHS in picture quality, tape wear, system design and convenience of use. Interestingly though LTE is a newer standard and borrowed many ideas from WiMAX and can be considered superior in a number of ways.

Most importantly though is device support. Mobile broadband is in extreme demand and gadgets like smartphones are more important than ever. Without solid devices, can a new wireless standard take off? But then again there are so many companies that could come out with WiMAX devices; Nokia's absence doesn't mean the market is dead. For example if Apple entered the market, Nokia's management would be having conference calls about this issue that same day and they would probably change their tune.

But until this happens - and I doubt it will, Nokia is adding healthy amounts of FUD on the WiMAX market and to be honest, there is likely no other equipment manufacturer in a better position to read global wireless trends.

It is worth mentioning however that Nokia's comments and pulling out of the WiMAX market may lead to a more sophisticated conclusion. More specifically, WiMAX will likely make it in poorer nations such as India, Africa, etc. Coincidentally these areas will require low-margin devices and perhaps Nokia is factoring this into their future business plan. After all, it may not make sense to focus on markets where you make a few euros per device.

Still, I don't recall a time when so many were aligned against any technology. Especially when the technology - in this case WiMAX is already up and running and being compared to little more than a paper standard in LTE.

Here is another problem. I don't want to point to any associations in particular but logic dictates when you get attacked, you formulate a response and then put said plan into action.

When Las Vegas was attacked by President Obama, Las Vegas countered with ads about how Vegas is a great destination for events - low cost, easy to get to, etc. Moreover the Mayor of Las Vegas even penned a response to Obama with the facts about this oasis in a desert location. On the lighter side when Borat relieved himself comically on the image of Kazakhstan, they took out ads to tell us how great the nation was.

The point is where are the ads for WiMAX? In the absence of any positive comments about the technology, what do you think equipment providers, carriers and investors will do? They will pull WiMAX investment and make Nokia's comments self-fulfilling. And that is too bad because competition is a good thing.

And what is the deal with WiMAX vendors in general? They seem to do no marketing at all to push the standard they depend on so much. WiMAX vendors forgot they not only needed to build products but also focus on building and protecting the market which will purchase these products. In other words industry marketing. These vendors did not position their market and now someone else did it for them.

In fact if I think quickly as to who the strongest and most vocal proponent is of WiMAX, it is likely Carl Ford, the person who has partnered with my parent company TMC to launch the 4G Wireless Evolution conference.

But then again, if LTE does indeed become the single wireless broadband standard, we will see device prices driven even lower which will be great for consumers and perhaps even good for equipment manufacturers.

Weekend Fuzzy Logic Thoughts

April 5, 2009 5:21 PM | 0 Comments

I sometimes get negative feedback when I discuss areas outside tech and telecom on this blog so I decided that if I am going to go off on a tangent I will usually restrict it to the weekend when my critics are too relaxed to give me grief wink .

Some of you probably know I wanted to be an MD and/or biomedical engineer but fate had other plans. This should explain my fascination with many things biological.

Anyway I find the fact that fuzzy logic is being used to model and visual cell interactions wonderful. Technology continues to evolve and help civilization become better. Whether it is a better cell phone or a new way to help researchers, I am thrilled to get to learn about and discuss the leading edge of tech with my readers.

Just promise - no negative letters about all this - I am having a relaxing weekend after all.wink

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