I have had the opportunity to discuss Apple’s iPhone with a slew of industry luminaries over the last few weeks. Here is what I have heard mixed with some of my own views.
There are a number of companies who will come out with iPhone clones before the iPhone hits the street. As you might imagine, most of these companies if not all are based in Asia.
One assumes Apple will be tied up in legal battles with these companies – assuming there are patent infringements. Etc.
It seems every demographic wants at this phone and churn from other providers will be high. This of course assumes that there is not a close enough iPhone-like phone from Verizon, T-Mobile, etc which will keep people from switching service.
iPhone sales will cannibalize iPod sales.The iPhone is unsubsidized.
Apple likely is getting a piece of the service contract revenue from AT&T Wireless.
AT&T Wireless looks at the customer base of people switching to get the iPhone as customers who are switching with virtually little or no marketing cost associated with them.
In addition, AT&T stands to benefit greatly by having more people in their stores and on their website. Even people who can’t afford to buy iPhones will become AT&T customers and buy cheaper phones with the hopes of being able to upgrade later to an iPhone.
Expect iPod listings on eBay to skyrocket as the iPhone gets closer to launch date.
A popular prediction is that people who can’t afford and iPhone will be the demographic with greatest penetration.
All of this assumes the phone does work well – as a phone. The sound quality, etc needs to be on par without other phones, etc.
The biggest drawback we know about so far is the lack of a keyboard. The touch screen keyboard will likely be a major compliant.
There is a technology called haptic feedback which makes the phone vibrate when the screen is touched. Many say this technology is good at simulating keyboard activity.
The first version of the iPhone is not going to have this technology it seems.
The entire cell phone industry will be remade as a result of the iPhone. Device manufacturers will gain more autonomy and user interfaces will go from being atrocious (I think SonyEricsson does a great job with UIs by the way) to more intelligently designed.
If you have any other thoughts about the iPhone – please send me an e-mail or comment below.
