Communications and Technology Blog - Tehrani.com - Cisco Archives

Turns out Cisco Cius Can't Compete With the iPad Either

2012-05-25T18:42:12Z

Company after company is learning what most of instinctively know already – competing with Apple head-on is like trying to tackle a freight train with your bare hands as it is barreling down the tracks in your direction. Amazon with its Kindle Fire competed on price and used its services to subsidize the device. Other tablet makers are finding it virtually impossible to compete without such advantages.

So finding out the news that Cisco is discontinuing its Cius tablet isn’t a surprise. I have mentioned before that Cisco is not good at consumer products and although the Cius was targeted at the enterprise, we know IT has become “consumerized” meaning the CIO doesn’t drive tablet decisions. As a result, Cisco has to compete with Apple head-on which as described above is virtually impossible to do.

Cisco’s OJ Winge had this to say about the company’s tablet and software strategy going forward:

Over the last year, Cisco has demonstrated a commitment to delivering innovative software like Cisco Jabber and Cisco WebEx across a wide spectrum of operating systems, tablets and Smart Phones. We’re seeing tremendous interest in these software offerings. Customers see the value in how these offerings enable employees to work on their terms in the Post-PC era, while still having access to collaboration experiences.

Based on these market transitions, Cisco will no longer invest in the Cisco Cius tablet form factor, and no further enhancements will be made to the current Cius endpoint beyond what’s available today. However, as we evaluate the market further, we will continue to offer Cius in a limited fashion to customers with specific needs or use cases.

Moving forward, we intend to double down on software offerings, like Jabber and WebEx, that provide the anytime, anywhere, and any device experiences. We will leverage key learnings and key collaboration experiences native to Cius in our other collaboration products.

Experience matters, and Cisco is focused on empowering individual collaboration styles more effectively and securely, while providing the broadest choice of collaboration options based on preference, location, and device.

To give you a sense of just how fast the market moves it was 11 months ago where the press was invited to a Cius launch event. After the meeting I posted the video above and an entry titled Cisco Cius and the Need for an Enterprise Tablet. One of my concerns from the post was the following:

The challenges here are how many people want a seven-inch tablet when they can get a ten-inch tablet at a similar price? It is worth noting in my tests with the Cius and the Blackberry Playbook that you get used to the smaller form-factor and obviously there are some portability benefits to a smaller device.

Is Cius a winner? Yes – absolutely but that doesn’t mean it will be successful. Hear me out. The Cius and the Avaya A175 with the Flare interface are building a category called enterprise tablet and to date it isn’t clear if this is a real category or not. By real I mean – substantial in terms of the number of devices sold. In other words, other than some vertical markets like hospitals where IT generally directs such device rollouts, most other industries have seen the BYOD-effect of the consumerization of IT meaning IT doesn’t dictate as much as they used to. Moreover, many workers are purchasing their own tablets and bringing them to work – reducing corporate expense while keeping workers happier.

One final issue is the tablet market right now is pretty much all iPad and Android devices haven’t made much of a dent. Analysts believe this will change but some people of note believe it is possible for Apple to own the tablet space. Moreover, with the close synergy between iTunes and iCloud, Apple makes it that much more desirable to have your tablet come from the same company.

On the way to the event I wrote a post How Cisco Needs to Sell the Cius Tablet which also outlined the risks:

The downside risk is fairly obvious though and that is that software is cheaper than hardware and most anything the Cius can do, an iPad or other Android tablet can as well.

And then there is the consumer electronics angle - Cisco purchased Flip and shut it down a few years later because the company isn't very good at competing in the consumer space where margins are razor-thin. Obviously the growth of smartphones helped kill the pocket-sized video camcorder market as well.

So for Cisco the obvious sales angle is to sell the Cius as an IP-phone which can do so much more. Avaya will obviously be doing the same with its A175 tablet. The challenge in the long-term will be convincing users that they want an Android tablet instead of an iPad. Which means both Avaya and Cisco need to be much better at doing consumer electronics - potentially partnering with a tablet maker like Samsung or HTC to one-up Apple.

I stand by my suggestion that the company should have partnered with a consumer electronics company. Now that Google Owns Motorola Mobility they could be a likely partner as well.

My sense is however that Cisco is so upset about its consumer electronics losses between Flip, Umi and Cius that they won't be open to any such partnerships unless they have little or no risk associated with them.

I reached out to Avaya regarding their strategy and spoke with Joel Hackney, President of Sales and Field Operations. He told me they remain committed on extending video to all employees in the enterprise including mobile video and SIP leadership are very important areas for them. Their pending RADVISION acquisition gives them a full video offering allowing you to enhance your own device or purchase a complete solution.

The question now is will any other company be able to compete with Apple as a pure-play tablet maker. Google should be coming out with their solution soon and we will see what sort of acceptance there is in the market.

Microsoft Working on Skype Everywhere Initiative

2012-04-20T12:37:01Z

The fact that Microsoft would want to integrate Skype everywhere shouldn't be too surprising, Office/Lync and Windows Phone are obvious areas and so is Xbox. That's why news of the company looking for engineers who can delve into the hybrid world of video games and IP communications shouldn't be too surprising.

When Microsoft integrates Skype into Xbox and bundles some free calling into the solution, what's to stop them from offering a DECT phone as well? With retail prices of DECT 6.0 phones starting at less than $20, the idea makes more and more sense.

Sure, you can use a cordless/wireless phone with Skype today but if Microsoft integrates it all seamlessly and video is added for free, what happens to the business models of Ooma, netTALK and magicJack?

And what about the cable companies, AT&T and Verizon? Sure, a Skype home phone calling solution will be inferior as it doesn't allow emergency calling due to a lack of E-911 support but still, if it is part of a bundle and has HD voice support, why pay for phone company or cable calling? Especially if it has video as well and other great Skype calling features, presence, etc.

Additionally, a benefit of the Skype purchase will be potentially becoming the phone provider for hundreds of millions of consumers. Of course Skype already has hundreds of millions of users but when I say "phone" I mean the actual physical phone, not the computer to computer experience.

Moreover, if Microsoft is successful, it will be achieving what Cisco couldn't with Umi. And remember, one of the reasons I said Umi wouldn't make it was because of Xbox Kinect. I also mentioned Skype's deal with Panasonic, Sony and others as another reason. It would be ironic if Skype and Xbox together were to fulfill the market niche Umi was looking to exploit.

The challenge for Microsoft is the tablet market - which today means iPad, is eating the video game space. So the next version of Xbox better have some really compelling features to draw the gamers back. I would think they believe tight Skype integration will be one of these features.

Monetizing the Mobile Data Explosion with Tektronix Communications

2012-03-20T19:26:10Z

Remember when you were in the engineering lab and you relied on a Tektronix oscilloscope to analyze signals? I do and I deeply craved one of my own but could never afford one. But the company once part of Tektronix, Tektronix Communications does its best to ensure that not being able to afford their products is not a reason to keep you from buying. The company provides solutions for carriers which help with pre-deployment, network operations, customer care, network and RF engineering solutions as well as business performance. You see they want to ensure the solutions you buy, pay for themselves so carriers are more likely to purchase their products than a college kid eyeing a high-quality scope.

In a recent meeting with Laurence Alexander and Samir Marwaha they shared with me the news that the company has been awarded more than 50% of the LTE monitoring opportunities worldwide partnering with more than 15 tier one carriers around the globe. The company helps its customers across multiple “technology domains” such as EUTRAN, EPC, IMS and VoLTE.

Moreover the company is assisting carriers maximize revenue per subscriber as well as ensuring commercial readiness of LTE networks. They also assist with OTT partnerships between carriers and companies who can utilize such QoS enhanced pipes like perhaps in the video space. According to Laurence this is a win/win because carriers can charge for it and consumers get a better quality service.

Moreover deep packet classification enables service providers to get a better sense of what users are doing on the network. Moreover the company’s solutions allow operators to determine network quality from a user perspective – and at this point they can even alert customer care that a problem is taking place. Quality issues are just one cause of churn but certainly a very large portion of the churn pie. This sort of solution is designed to help carriers be proactive and retain customers – even ones which just had a negative experience.

Certainly one of the reasons carriers to choose Tektronics Communications has to do with the breadth of product line starting with a product like K2Air/NSA for advanced RAN and RF performance analysis to OptiMon for deep drive RAN troubleshooting. Then there is the Iris series – traffic analyzers, session analyzers and performance intelligence solutions – all the way up to touchpoint CEM for customer experience management.

And as the growth of LTE and VoLTE accelerates so should the opportunities for the company to assist carriers in providing better quality of service to customers. In addition, the company aims to help them find new ways to generate revenue by providing differentiated, higher quality services.

Disclosure: I am a shareholder in Tektronix Communications parent Danaher. Pictured is the graphic of Danaher's holdings in the tech, telecom and related spaces.

Check out a Webinar on Telecom Visibility 2.0

2012-03-20T17:41:14Z

For over 20 years I’ve been tracking Unimax a company that has been the only pure-play moves/adds/changes solutions provider to large enterprises around the globe. Andrew Hunkins was the founder/CTO/CEO throughout the years and my most memorable meetings with him were at the Harry Newton/CMP Computer Telephony EXPOs also known as CTEXPO in Los Angeles, California. A huge accomplishment for the company Hunkins founded was lasting – it’s been around since 1985!! This is a big deal.

It is worth mentioning that Hunkins has moved on from the company but he/Unimax made national news when after the Iraq war they were featured in BusinessWeek because they lost a partnership deal in France because there was a brief spat between the US and the French over the Iraq war.

You remember, when we were briefly calling French Fries, Freedom Fries and body odor French perfume – admittedly I might have been the only one speaking the latter – but I know you were thinking it.

Unimax has evolved over the years and Minnesota-based company is sponsoring a webinar on TMCnet which will discuss how organizations can increase their telecom visibility and reporting. I would have called the webinar using big data and analytics to manage your disparate PBX and communications systems across the campus and/or globe but admittedly that is a really long headline.

But you get the idea. The webinar takes place in a couple of days and thanks for working with me during this brief commercial message from our sponsor.

The 7 Wireless Data Cap Losers

2012-03-06T23:08:46Z

We are in uncharted territory when it comes to mobility as this year we will see a slew of productivity-boosting 4G, quad-core smartphones like the Ascend 4D Quad from Huawei which I saw at Mobile World Congress 2012 in Barcelona, Spain. Moreover, while devices get more powerful, we will only want to do more with them and quite often this means relying on wireless networks from carriers.

The only problem is these providers are rapidly running out of bandwidth and this means they have decided the best course of action is to cap users and slow their connections once they hit a certain threshold. Their other strategy is to just charge for bandwidth being used.

This latter method of charging will eventually lead to data use bill shock. This means we can expect to see the viral spreading of news related to parents being faced with a $5,000 bill because their child viewed 2,000 YouTube videos in a month.

There is nothing worse than that nail-biting feeling you get when you try to end that important video call before your carrier starts to throttle your bandwidth

So without further ado, here are the top 7 losers who will be hurt by wireless bandwidth caps:

Cloud vendors – all of them. Regardless of business model, you will soon start to lose one of the fastest growing markets you have – mobile users. The carriers will tell you that a small fraction of users are hogging most of the bandwidth but that just may be because the majority of users have slower devices and/or haven’t discovered the really bandwidth hungry apps which they will rely on in the future. And we know that most users aren’t on 4G yet – when they do migrate they will use more data, more quickly. You want me to name names of companies who will be hurt? OK, Amazon EC2 – as so many other services rely on the leading ecommerce and cloud hosting site as well as Dropbox and of course iCloud.
Desktop sharing companies like OnLive Desktop, GoToMeeting, LogMeIn, etc. Much of the appeal of using these service has to do with working remotely and having the full functionality of being in the office. To some degree, these services actually minimize bandwidth use because if you download a huge photo and view it – you only see a compressed rendering of the photo on your tablets screen. This of course will all change because as screens get more resolution, the amount of bandwidth use will grow.
Video Streaming companies such as Hulu, YouTube and Netflix are obvious casualties – and as more tablets are sold, the problem gets bigger. And yes, video is a huge bandwidth hog.
Audio Streaming Companies like Pandora, Spotify, etc. Sure audio consumes less bandwidth than video but with streaming radio – users have a tendency to just set it and forget it.
Social networking sites to some degree have an issue but for many functions such as tweeting and/or posting status updates which don’t include video, limited bandwidth shouldn’t be an issue. But one has to wonder about how the ecosystem of apps which enrich social networks – let’s say Twitpic for example could feel a slight pinch because users may be afraid to do anything which bandwidth-hungry because they may exceed their monthly allotment of bits. Graphics-rich Pinterest may see some pain as well.
Apple could potentially have a problem as well but the company does seem to be immune to most challenges which should hurt it like the advent of $199 tablets. The challenge for Apple is newer devices tend to have advancements screen resolution – in fact the next iPad is rumored to be called the HD, not the iPad 3. Guess what? All those pixels need to be filled with information and the more pixels you have, the more bandwidth you suck. The same is of course true for Google, Motorola, Samsung, HTC and the rest of the market. Smartphones aren’t immune to this problem either so a Samsung Galaxy Note just went from a device which can straddle the smartphone/tablet market to one which could cause users to go over their data plans more quickly.
Finally, corporations have the most to lose as they purchase all these fancy tech tools for their workers with the expectation of ROI which is usually calculated based on stable metrics. And now users are going to be in a situation where at a certain point, their telepresence calls start to have jitter and latency because they are over their bit allotment for the month. And the issue will be difficult to predict in advance as a Slingbox user could eat up a month’s worth of bandwidth in a week or even a few days.

In short, bandwidth caps may cause great pain for users over time and wireless carriers should be very careful as their policy changes begin to change end-user behavior.

Chinese Nortel Hack Unconfirmed by my Sources

2012-02-16T01:33:35Z

Although reports have been swirling regarding Chinese hackers breaking into Nortel's computers for over ten years in order to steal trade secrets, I have been unable to confirm such a breach took place. I have tapped into a few high-level sources and they were unaware of anything like this happening - the internal Nortel employees would almost certainly need to know if such an attack was taking place.

After all, reports say that even Nortel CEO Mike Zafirovski had a computer which was compromised.

One of the reasons Nortel went bankrupt had to do with Chinese competitors Huawei and ZTE undercutting Nortel on price for carrier wireless and other products. So it easy to understand why many would easily believe that Nortel had been hacked.

And hacks from China are not unusual - they have happened to numerous US companies and even government agencies.

But again, would you not let your company workers know if this was the case?

Siobhan Gorman has a story in the Wall Street Journal on what happened at Nortel and it seems there is enough information to make you believe the hack was real. But still, I remain skeptical that the breach if it happened was on such a massive scale. I reached out to Siobhan in order to see if there are any public documents which would enlighten us. I will advise you if I hear of anything - please drop me a line if you know of anything as well.

Cisco Underestimated Skype's Value. Acts against Microsoft Acquisition

2012-02-15T21:35:30Z

Cisco is far from the most open company in tech so it is ironic it is concerned about a monopoly over video conferencing a result of the Microsoft acquisition of Skype. The company’s Martin De Beer said, “For the sake of customers, the industry recognizes the need for ubiquitous unified communications interoperability, particularly between Microsoft/Skype and Cisco products, as well as products from other unified communications innovators.” This statement coincided with Cisco challenging an EU court over the acquisition.

One has to wonder however if Cisco underestimated Skype’s value. After all, the company has been sold twice in the last few years and the networking company didn’t close the deal either time.

The thesis that Cisco did not realize Skype’s importance is backed up by Cisco’s other actions – launching its consumer video service Umi - a Skype competitor. As you may recall I immediately said this service would fail and backed it up with ten reasons.

Here are the first three as a reminder - #1 is the most important for now:

1) Skype. Elaboration would be talking (writing) down to you.
2) Cisco's solution at $599 for the equipment and $24.99 per month is insane for a new consumer technology which has little to no network effect related to Metcalfe's Law. Oh and you need 3.5 Mbps upload speed for 1080p calls - meaning higher broadband bills for some.
3) Facetime: Apple's FaceTime is free and even though at the recent ITEXPO many people commented that using the software on an iPhone 4 is not great because inevitably your hand gets tired and falls to your stomach causing a nose-hair view of yourself to be transmitted - we can expect Apple to Facetime-enable everything they sell. Will Umi interoperate? If not, how will it compete?

And yes, the service failed shortly thereafter.

What is Cisco’s stance on video openness? In October of last year, the company responded to critics regarding its somewhat closed video ecosystem and decided to become more open. But this was five years into selling their telepresence products.

If anything, Cisco has been one of the more closed vendors in the market.

Remember what happened when Cisco announced it would buy Tandberg? Well, Stefan Karapetkov, Emerging Technologies Director for Polycom said the following:

Cisco announced today that they will acquire Tandberg, and this will have significant impact on the video communications market. It will reduce competition, and limit customers' choices, especially in the telepresence space. It will, hurt Radvision who now fills the gap in Cisco's video infrastructure portfolio.

I am however more concerned about the standards-compliance that have been the pillar of the video communication industry for years. Tandberg and Polycom worked together in international standardization bodies such as ITU-T and in industry consortiums such as IMTC to define standard mechanisms for video systems to communicate.

Cisco on the other hand is less interested in standards, and considers proprietary extensions as a way to gain competitive advantage. The concern of the video communication industry right now should be that the combined company will be so heavily dominated by Cisco that standards will become last priority, far after integrating Tandberg products with Cisco Call Manager and WebEx.

Telling is the fact that both Tandberg and Cisco declined participating in interoperability events over the last few months.

But this doesn’t mean Cisco hasn’t done the correct things for its shareholders by being more closed than most other companies. After all, if you are a dominant provider of a solution you aren’t required to open up your product unless a government forces you to. And this is why Cisco has inserted itself into the regulatory approval in Europe of the acquisition of Skype by Microsoft. De Beer continued, “Cisco does not oppose the merger, but believes the European Commission should have placed conditions that would ensure greater standards-based interoperability, to avoid any one company from being able to seek to control the future of video communications.”

And this is the challenge Cisco faces. Last week, Microsoft had a Lync Pavilion at ITEXPO in Miami and it was mobbed – lots of attention and buying – and it will expand in ITEXPO in Austin, Texas. And this was before Skype integration. Based on what I saw, enterprise buyers and resellers want UC solutions from Redmond.

Cisco will no doubt lose more share to Microsoft in the enterprise – this seems to be a given. But when FaceTime is a fast-growing competitor and is very closed, do we need to force Skype and Microsoft to open? In fact, in five years I predict Cisco having to worry more about Apple in the enterprise than Microsoft and Skype. And good luck getting Apple to open up.

It seems Cisco grossly underestimated Skype’s value and importance. The company had been burned by failed consumer product company purchase after purchase and didn’t want another mistake. This makes sense. But by the same token, Microsoft is facing a titanic battle with Apple and needs any advantage it can get. And this doesn’t even take into account the damage done by Google in the mobile and other spaces.

In a free market – companies should be able to make the decisions they think make the most sense for themselves and shareholders. I believe it would be an error to force Microsoft/Skype to open up.

Moreover, with the pace of IT consumerization is speeding up, Cisco will no doubt be playing a very difficult game of making purchases of pure B2B companies while having to understand which B2C companies are indeed crucial in the B2B world as well.

Need a New Car? Win a Mustang at ITEXPO in Miami Next Week

2012-01-27T15:48:11Z

I think I may have one of the best jobs in the world. I admit it is a bit ADHD-inducing as I get involved in lots of areas from new media to the latest technologies in the market as I run this major media company which is TMC. Not only do I get help influence tens of millions of people online I also get to host live events where I meet many of the readers who frequent my blog and TMCnet - the main web portal of TMC where I am CEO.

But the most exciting part of my job comes twice a year when I give away a car to an unsuspecting attendee at ITEXPO. Next week - Friday Feb 3rd at 1:45 pm at the Miami Beach Convention Center, I get to give the next car away and it will be a Ford Mustang. In order to be eligible to win you need to pick up a card at registration and get it stamped by all the sponsors of the car giveaway.

Thank you sponsors for making these giveaways possible. If I were an attendee at a show I would want a mix of solid education, a chance to network with peers, see the leading exhibitors in the space but also to have some fun and that is what events like our various receptions and giveaways are supposed to provide.

The TMC team and I look forward to hosting you next week. Thank you all in advance for coming to our event and hats off to the TMC team who is managing not only ITEXPO but a host of collocated and unparallelled events such as Super WiFi Summit, MSP World, our SUITS technology patents event, M2M Evolution, Mobile LATAM, HTML5 Summit, Cloud Communications Expo, The Channel Vision Expo (CVx), Business Video, Asterisk 123, 4GWE, StartupCamp5, Avaya Tech on Tap, the Blackberry Hackathon, SIP trunking workshop, business development workshop, telecom reseller week, to name a few.

http://itexpo.tmcnet.com/sip-trunking-workshop/miami/

A Dream for Alan Harper - iPads Do Increase Chiropractor Visits

2012-01-26T19:26:48Z

When the iPad was released I penned a piece titled iPad Neck – Ouch! Because I had such a neck ache, I had to see a chiropractor. Just over a year and a half later I came across a report on TMCnet which explains that yes, indeed, I am not alone. Researchers have found that prolonged use of tablets as opposed to desktop computers has led to not only pain in people’s necks but their shoulders as well.

The reason has to do with how the screen is positioned. With a desktop or laptop your head is generally up, facing forward as opposed to when you use a tablet and your head is tilted down. This is similar to reading a book which you put on the desk directly in front of you. But the book can be lifted – a tablet has to stay in front of you when you type.

What I can tell you is that my chiropractor was very happy with Apple and I was one of a few patients she was working with within a few weeks of the release of the iPad 1. And with the news that Apple sold more iPads than any computer vendor sold computers, we can expect the chiropractic business to do well for years to come. Do the writers of Two and a Half Men know about this by the way? At this rate Alan Harper will have more money than Walden.

Much to the dismay of Mr. Harper however – researchers advise you not use the tablet as a computer replacement – because if you do, you may potentially end up in a seedy chiropractic office in the San Fernando Valley.

ITEXPO East 2012 Miami Schedule

2012-01-25T20:49:34Z

One of the most frequent question I get regarding TMC’s ITEXPO which takes place next week in Miami – is with all that is going on – how do you make a decision as to which parts of the show to attend. Truth be told I believe the event and its collocated conferences and educational sessions rivals just about any other tech show in terms of education.

Some of the hot topics to be discussed include not only general communications and technology but 4G wireless, mobility, Asterisk, open source, business video, the channel, cloud computing and communications, HTML5, Mobile Latin America communications, M2M, technology patents, the MSP market, Super WiFi/white spaces and much more.

The following is a list of important details you will need to help navigate ITEXPO East 2012 Miami. I warn you – this is a subset of what is happening. To keep you posted on not only these items but other important events at the show please follow @itexpo on Twitter and turn on mobile notifications – it is pretty simple – just follow the menu below. Twitter also allows you to turn off notifications at certain hours in its settings tab.

Also, please download the show directory/guide (PDF) and read through it before you get there to get the most out of the event.

ITEXPO East 2012

January 31 - February 3, 2012

Miami Beach Convention Center

If you are staying at the Loews in Miami or a hotel nearby the best route to walk is down 16^th street making a right on Washington after a block. Most concierge personnel will tell you to walk down Collins which is longer and if the sun is strong may be a bit uncomfortable.

View Larger Map

Registration counters are located in the Hall B Lobby. This is the section of the convention center on Washington Blvd., closest to the show hotels.

When you arrive, proceed to the registration counter to receive your badge. You will need a photo ID.

SHOW HOURS

Tuesday, January 31

Registration: 7:30am – 5:00pm
Workshops begin at 9:00am
POST POTS Special Sessions: 2:00pm
Avaya Tech on Tap: 5:00pm

Wednesday, February 1

Registration: 7:00am – 7:00pm
Workshops/Sessions begin at 9:00am
Free Keynotes: 12:45pm; 3:30pm
Exhibits Open: 4:30-7:30pm
Free Networking Reception: 5:30-7:30 on expo floor - Sponsored by Broadvox.

Thursday, February 2

Registration: 7:00am – 4:00pm
Workshops/Sessions begin at 9:00am
Free Keynotes: 9:00-11:00am
Exhibits Open: 11:00am – 4:00pm
Networking Reception: 4:00pm
StartupCamp5, featuring keynote by Terry Matthews: 4:45pm
ITEXPO Party on South Beach - Mangos Tropical Cafe: 9:00pm

Friday, February 3

Registration: 7:30am – 2:00pm
Workshops/Sessions begin at 9:00am
Exhibits Open: 11:00am – 2:00pm
New Mustang Giveaway at 1:45pm – Must Be Present to Win

Updated schedule. Visit the show site for additional details

Keynotes and Special Sessions Schedule: (Open to all attendees)

Tuesday, January 31:

2:00 pm: Special Panel Session:

Post POTS Net Neutrality & the Cloud: From POTS to PANS

============================================================

Rumors of the death of POTS are not exaggerated. To build a new model for the future we have to determine the bottlenecks. Come discuss the impact of the cloud and the migration from end to end to any to any services; about supporting access and quality of service; about Net Neutrality and Privacy.

5:00: Avaya Tech on Tap Workshop and Networking Reception

=========================================================

Kick off ITEXPO East with a special pre-conference seminar and evening networking event, hosted by the Avaya DevConnect Program. Join Avaya and our special keynote speaker Judith Hurwitz, co-author of "Cloud Computing for Dummies", as we tackle some of the most challenging technology transitions facing IT organizations today, namely cloud computing and collaboration enablement.

KEYNOTES Wednesday, February 1:

12:45pm: Michael Rouleau, tw telecom
3:30pm: Paget Alves, Sprint
4:30pm: Timothy Wagner, Samsung Telecommunications America

KEYNOTES Thursday, February 2:

9:00am: Rick Whitt, Google
9:30am: Chris Swearingen, Senseaware, Powered by FedEx
10:00am: Dirk Gates, Xirrus
10:30pm: Julius Knapp, FCC
4:45pm: Sir Terry Matthews, Wesley Clover

WORKSHOPS at ITEXPO – Open to All Attendees

Cloud Business Development Workshop

Tuesday, January 31 - 9:00am

Larry Dillon and Michael Curry will co-host the first ever pre-show workshops focused towards new business development techniques for resellers, developers and cloud-based service providers.

Asterisk 123 Training

Tuesday, January 31 - 9:00am

Come get a well-rounded and informative introduction to the Asterisk Project. All are Welcome! Whether you are managing a team deploying an Asterisk implementation, evaluating potential replacements for a legacy telephony solution that's on its last leg, or just a general Asterisk "newbie" excited to learn what Asterisk is capable of, then this talk has something to offer you.

Sangoma Vega Training

Tuesday, January 31 - 9:00am

Sangoma Technologies will host a free full day hands-on training session teaching you how to configure and troubleshoot the Vega series gateways for use with IP-PBX and SIP trunking.

Blackberry HTML5 Hackathon

Tuesday, January 31 - 9:00am

Join us at the upcoming HTML5 Hackathon to discover how BlackBerry WebWorks takes HTML5 beyond the browser. We'll show you the power and simplicity of the new BlackBerry browser

Ingate’s SIP Trunking Workshop

Wednesday, February 1 – Friday, February 3

Attendees can earn a SIP Trunking Professional Certificate by participating in the Professional Development Program on February 1. Attendees can also earn a Unified Communications Professional Certificate on February 2.

Telecom Reseller Week Presentation Theatre

Wednesday, February 1 – Friday, February 3

Telecom Reseller Week provides you with a forum for you to learn about cutting edge new solutions you can represent, to meet with many new potential partners, and to study proven sales techniques to help improve your team's performance.

MPLS University

Tuesday, February 2 - 1:30pm

MPLS University is a forum for IT and business professionals to bring their questions about network reliability, always-on connectivity, voice, regulatory requirements, security, and cost control. Join us for two FREE live MPLS University sessions at ITEXPO to learn more about utilizing cloud-based solutions

StartupCamp5: Comms Edition

Tuesday, February 2 - 4:00pm

Featuring keynote address by Sir Terry Matthews

The incredibly popular StartupCamp networking event returns. This unique forum is for early-stage entrepreneurs to pitch their communications products or services to a discriminating audience of potential investors, media, bloggers and industry influencers. The event's fast-paced, "ready, set, pitch" format brings early-stage communications companies, developers, industry leaders and investors together to network and validate entrepreneurial pitches in real time.

4:00: StartupCamp5 Free Networking Reception

4:45: Introduction/Event Kickoff by Larry Lisser

5:00: Keynote Presentation by World-Renowned Entrepreneur Sir Terry Matthews

5:45: Startup Presentations and Judging

7:00: Networking and Voting

QUESTIONS?

Contact Frank Coppola (203.852.6800 x 131)

Thank you sponsors

Diamond Sponsor:

Digium

Platinum Sponsors:

AudioCodes
Sonus Networks
Sansay
Dialogic
Interactive Intelligence
Netxusa

Gold Sponsors:

abp
Adtran
Broadvox
MegaPath
USAN
888VoIP
Panasonic
snom
tw telecom
Sangoma

I really look forward to seeing you all at the show – it will be fantastic.

Update: My marketing team has a fancier version of this document which they send in emails after you register. It has web links and may be easier on the eyes.

Innovation Speed = (Moore's Law*Metcalfe's Law)/Patent Lawsuit Activity

2012-01-25T16:42:09Z

Yesterday I was engaged in a conversation with TMC senior editor Peter Bernstein and we were discussing the pace of innovation and whether there is some formula which can explain how much more quickly things are happening today. Interestingly I also had a conversation today with TMC webmaster and author Robert Hashemian where we were going over Apple’s earnings and how fast mobile leadership has changed – from Motorola to Nokia to Motorola to Microsoft to RIM to Apple to Google. And all these massive marketshare swings took place more or less in the last decade.

Back to the discussion with Peter – my takeaway from the conversation (I feel he has a slightly different opinion which hopefully he will expound upon in the future) is that Moore’s Law and Metcalfe’s Law working together are accelerating innovation and lubricating new business models. Obviously email is just one tool which has benefitted from these laws – think about how you can now create and respond to virtually all your email from a smartphone now. Think of the productivity gains from this advance alone.

Then there are services like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn which all leverage both laws and as they grow in users they become more powerful and useful.

Then there are ecosystem plays which allow a developer with a good idea to become rich overnight. Think Apple App Store or using Facebook as a gaming platform.

To me these laws need some sort of multiplier because they amplify one another. In other words a quad-core smartphone in your pocket has the approximate computing horsepower of a supercomputer just over a decade earlier. And when they are cloud-connected to a 4G network or WiFi it makes pint-sized gadgets very very powerful. So the formula would look roughly like this:

Innovation Speed = (Moore’s Law*Metcalfe’s Law).

This isn’t really a formula – so let’s say the equal sign is defined as “roughly proportional to.”

But there is more to it – there are unions, government regulations and taxes which could add drag to business and innovation. Then again tax credits could act as accelerant. For the sake of brevity I will leave these and other related factors out of my analysis.

Patents however is an area worth delving into – after all Google more or less purchased Motorola Mobility because of its large patent pool. I realize the company says this isn’t the case and the other products in the organization are very important but I must respond by borrowing a line from Tom Hanks in “Big” – “I don’t get it.”

So back to my formula – there are patent lawsuits all over the world – many being initiated by Apple, Microsoft and Oracle. It is really tough to keep track of them all.

So my formula could be modified as follows:

Innovation Speed = (Moore’s Law*Metcalfe’s Law)/Patent Lawsuit Activity

You can see that I assert that Patent Lawsuit Activity is the denominator of the equation which means that given enough legal fighting the entire effect of Moore’s Law and Metcalfe’s Law can be wiped out. I do believe this to be the case but this wouldn’t necessarily happen in reality. The reason is businesses typically would rather settle by paying a royalty instead of fighting lawsuits to the death.

It is worth noting that in the case of patent trolls – roughly explained as entities which charge patent licensing fees and don’t currently sell related products, is interesting because quite often companies settle with them as opposed to going through the lawsuit exercise. And smart trolls try to price their fees in a way that keeps them out of court.

As a disclosure my company TMC has partnered in a patent lawsuit conference to be collocated on February 1st at ITEXPO East 2012 in Miami. It is called SUITS which stands for Synopsis under IP/Patents Telecom Sourcing Conference. It is a first-time event and we recently started to promote it. The agenda looks impressive and if your company plans on being successful it more than likely will have to face the prospect of a patent lawsuit. It is generally better to be prepared for these things before they happen and that is the point of the SUITS event – to bring you up to speed on the legal issues you must know as part of operating a tech or communications firm.

And I would love your feedback on my formula - does this make sense to you? If not, how would you modify it?

Trends and Surprises Regarding Google's 2011 Advertisers

2012-01-25T14:16:05Z

Google’s 2011 revenues were $37.9 billion last year and 96% of that money came from ads. Now I know what you are thinking. Where is all that money coming from? Well thankfully, the people at Wired put together an infographic that explains it all. Here are some highlights – a piece of the infographic and a link for the full graphic.

Finance and insurance totaled at $4B while retail and general merchandise was $2.8B and travel and tourism came in at $2.4B. Computers and consumer electronics came in at $2B.

Regarding individual companies the leading web retailer Amazon spent $55.3M followed by eBay at $42.8M and Macy’s at $35.6M.

On the education front, University of Phoenix spent $46.9M while ITT spent $29.9M.

On the telecom front AT&T was the leader at $40.8M while Verizon followed up at $22.9M. Go Daddy on the domain name front came in at $21.7M.

Another bit of information which is interesting has to do with the price per click for some of the top keywords. For example “Self-employed health insurance” costs a whopping $43.39 per click – that tells you a bit about how profitable that business is. A good basis for comparison may be “Barbie doll” which costs $1.30. It is worth mentioning that a typical Barbie Doll costs about $15-$20 meaning Google takes 5% or more of the total cost for this item - not for a sale but just a click.

Another highly priced term is “online video conferencing software” at $35.53. Seems like a lot of money but software is high-margin so this isn’t too surprising. I did a search on the term and the advertisers at the top were Nefsis, Arkadin, Gotomeeting, fuzebox, Cisco, Webex and Siemens Enterprise.

Perhaps most surprising is the term “custom business cards” which costs $13.83 per click. Since not all the people who click a link purchase it should come as a surprise that the company Vistaprint says in its ad that they will sell you 250 business cards for $10. To me the math doesn’t add up. – Perhaps they make it up in volume . I really hope so because Vistaprint spent $26.9M on Google last year.

The data clearly reminds us of something which may be forgotten – Google is not so much a tech company as a company which is feeding off of budgets which used to be dedicated to direct mail, coupons and newspaper circulars. Many of the companies spending the most money also spend a lot on billboard and TV advertising making Google just another mainstream outlet but with obviously increased measurability.

Going forward we can expect Google to try to push more of these advertisers from search click ads to YouTube – this is happening already but with Google’s recent announcement that they server 4B videos per day there is a massive amount of inventory to sell ads on. This is a natural progression for the company and explains why they have invested in new custom content video channels.

ITEXPO East 2012 Miami Out of Office Message

2012-01-24T22:15:59Z

While I digest the super-strong, mind-numbing Apple growth numbers which propelled the stock to a high of $460 per share after hours I have just set my out of office message for next week when I will be at ITEXPO. The message is below in case you want to use something similar. And for your convenience here is the first show daily from the event – which covers news from Sprint, AT&T, Whitespace Alliance, Panasonic, Accedian Networks, Cycle30, FaxSIPit, Phone.com and Polar Media.

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Thank you for your message. Starting Jan 30th I will be at ITEXPO (www.itexpo.com) in Miami.

This is the global tech and communications conference - covering cloud, MSP, super WiFi, 4G, M2M, Patents, SIP, VoIP, HTML5 and featuring keynotes from Google, Sprint, Samsung, The FCC and Sir Terry Matthews.

On Friday, Feb 3rd @ 1:45 pm I give away a new Mustang - You must be present to win so I hope to see you there. (http://goo.gl/vkqrd)

Have a wonderful week and enjoy the New Year.

Paget Alves, Sprint CSO keynotes ITEXPO in Miami

2012-01-17T22:21:40Z

Dear readers – thanks for registering for ITEXPO – our conference registration numbers show there is solid attendance already and the scope of attendees as always will be international with people coming from as far away as China. What I love about running conferences is the ability to experiment with the leading edge of technology to help attendees stay up to date on the latest happenings in hot spaces like super WiFi, UC, IP collaboration, mobility, 4G, M2M, etc.

On Wednesday, February 1, at 3:30 PM, Sprint’s Chief Sales Officer Paget Alves will help tie many of the themes at ITEXPO and related show as he discuss the power of ingenuity in the business-to-business space and its influence on wireless technologies – both current and future.

If you want to stay up to date on the latest in technology and communications including cloud computing, asterisk, the opportunity for channel partners, HTML5, the MSP space, startups, etc you should think about attending.

If you can’t – that’s fine as well – TMC and I will do our best to keep you posted on what I believe to be one of the most important events in the industry. I just got back from CES, I will be at MWC… I get a sense of renewed energy and excitement in so many sectors of the market; it will hopefully be a successful year for us all.

Avaya's Top Communication Trends in 2012

2011-12-16T20:22:04Z

Recently I had a chance to have an in-depth conversation with Avaya about the trends they see for 2012 in the communications space. In particular I spoke with George Humphrey a Director and Line of Business Owner at Avaya and Diane Royer, Senior Marketing Services Manager.

The trends below are at times augmented or enhanced with my thoughts.

1) Mobility raises the expectation of availability

Voice is morphing in the enterprise and becoming more consumer-driven and as a result everyone is connected at all times and moreover everyone wants immediate action. Consumers want to know right away if that widget on the website is compatible with European power or if the red color of the lamp online is closer to burgundy, beet or pomegranate.

Consumers are walking around with smartphones today that are the computing equivalent of supercomputers of a few decades back. This means we not only can do anything anywhere from a voice and data perspective, we will need to in order to maintain our customers and jobs. This is certainly not a new trend – a huge jump in being able to work around the clock took place in the nineties when voicemail allowed executives, salespeople and others to check messages without being in the office. BlackBerrys continued this trend and the web and e-mail turbocharged it and today’s powerful devices, WiFi and 3G/4G networks have supercharged the trend.

2) Contact centers test the value of voice

More companies will calculate where voice communications fit into their value stream, from pure cost to revenue generation. This is straight from Avaya - I didn’t get into this one as I thought some of the other bullets were more interesting.

3) Contextual data spans the last mile of personal productivity

For those of you were around during the 1980s in the call center space, you may recall the call centers who could invest millions of dollars were able to connect their Rockwell ACDs to their IBM mainframes to allow a database dip when the phone call information appeared via ANI and this in turn allowed a screen pop on the agents desk when they answered a phone call. What could be “popped” depended upon what was in the database but the idea here is we can do “screen pops squared” today because a call can come in and we can leverage CRM repositories, enterprise search tools, social networks, blogs, wikis and you name it. It is really just a matter of organizing it all. The idea is the more information agents have, the better they can serve their customers and in turn the more loyal the customers will be, resulting in higher ARPU and stickiness to borrow some terms from the wireless space.

4) Businesses advance from social media to social business

The idea here is we are about to cross the chasm of social adoption in companies – the social company or social enterprise is around the corner which in tech adoption turns will likely take 5-10 years. Interestingly at a recent conference I attended one vendor told me about a financial company which installed a state-of-the-art social platform for their company to use. Problem was the majority of the company was made up stock brokers who were – let me put this delicately, closer to retirement than college. Basically the old folks couldn’t figure out the newfangled pokes, circles and the like. Who says I have to be diplomatic all the time? :-)

Point being once again, this will be a journey, not a destination we reach in the next few years. Are we there yet? No. Quit your whining and be patient. :-)

5) Social media and customer care enter into an arranged marriage

My family came to this country from one in which arranged marriages were the norm. Let’s just say you didn’t necessarily fall in love you were I suppose “told” to love. Keep that in mind when you integrate your contact center and social strategies as customers have to feel like the two are seamless and agents need to be able to navigate the Venus of the Contact center and the Mars of social with aplomb. Just keep in mind, you really need to get it right the first time as there is no prenup I am aware of.

The rest of these are straight from Avaya – stay tuned for more comments from me after number 12:

6) The SIP is raised again

early adopters have completed implementation of, and captured initial ROI from, SIP-enabled infrastructure; now they’ll begin deploying SIP-enabled applications to gain the next level of value.

7) Social interactions expose customer care’s flaws

Businesses can’t fake who they are in a “social” setting, because social interactions ultimately expose “the real you.” Some businesses will discover they aren’t portraying an image they prefer, so they’ll be compelled to reinvent what customer centricity is all about.

8) IT support staffs converge, part two

In many companies, voice and data support teams converged with the advent of Internet Protocol (IP) telephony; with the deployment of unified communications applications, more companies will blend their applications teams as well.

9) Continuous connectivity drives communications support services

Communications support services increasingly will involve proactive problem resolution via secure access links and live interaction when necessary via innovative Web environments.

10) “True” UC apps proliferate

IT departments will be compelled by business units and enterprise users to adopt more user-centric applications and devices.

11) UC managed services/outsourcing facilitates alignment between IT and business units

As business unit demands increase at an even faster clip, more IT departments will adopt managed services/outsourcing business models to keep pace. IT groups that resist will continue to struggle.

12) Clients take control of managed services

As IT departments better understand industry best practices around infrastructure management, they will become more discriminating about the services they purchase, their expectations for transparency into those services, and how they hold service providers accountable.

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A few important points - on number eight, the company believes there also needs to be an evolution in IT meaning the director of infotech for the call center needs to understand data, UC, UC apps and be more savvy about MSP-based solutions. And on number ten, the concept here isn’t CEBP or Communications Enabled Business Processes it is more about BYOD – so think mobility.

I also asked the company how these trends are or aren’t manifesting themselves into sales and the response was more clients are seeing true value in UC and app-centric communications. Moreover, they are looking to more creative ways to procure solutions meaning the manufacturer becomes the systems integrator and moreover they are looking for more MSP-based delivery models.

I also asked about Avaya’s Flare collaboration environment which the company rolled out a short while back and they said it is available on the iPad – I downloaded it and it is pretty slick. In the future we can expect it to become video-enabled on this platform and Flare for Android and PC are coming in the spring of 2012.

I also asked about the company’s A175 tablet and didn’t get the sense this device is lighting the world on fire. Let’s put it this way – I knew it was tough to compete with the iPad at $500 when the A175 costs about $2,000. Now there is an Amazon Kindle Fire priced at $200. Believe me there is no comparison between the capabilities of the A175 and these other devices as it is multimedia-enabled and is really a super-powerful device for road warriors. It’s just that Avaya doesn’t have the appeal or consumer electronics name of an Apple or Amazon and this presents a challenge.

Another interesting point is that customers have seen cloud advertised so often they are interested in these types of solutions but they don’t necessarily need their system to be in the cloud. In other words it can be a solution which is MSP-based and OPEX oriented. In other words Avaya is trying to listen to customer needs and cut through the catchy cloud computing and cloud communications buzzwords to determine how they can solve their customer’s needs.

You can also see Avaya’s original thoughts on these trends if you are interested in seeing them without my added perspective.

You can see Avaya live as part of TMC’s ITEXPO where they have consistently been running their Technology on Tap events. It will take place Tuesday, January 31, 2012 from 5-10 pm EST in Miami Florida at the Miami Beach Convention Center (not the typical hotel setting you may be used to). Moreover the keynote will be given by the Author of Cloud Computing for Dummies, Judith Hurwitz. The company kindly requests you register in advance, thank you.