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I came across this interesting article from Rafe Needleman about web 2.0 startups which will not make it through the economic downturn. Here are my thoughts on some of the companies on his list:

Twitter: I agree the company needs to generate revenue and showing some ads wouldn't hurt the business model that much. As I mentioned recently -- I have started to use this service regularly -- but I am not promising I will have time to continue.

Zillow: This site seems to be used by virtually everyone who owns a house -- is shopping for one or is curious to see how much their friends and coworkers are worth. You enter an address and get a home price. Cool stuff -- but at some point it does need to generate revenue. I did see an ad for State Farm Insurance on Zillow today so I am not sure this site is doomed. Then again, I don't know what the site's expenses are.

Pandora: I would be devastated if this one was to die off. The ability to play customized music based on a single song or artist is amazing. I do know the company has agreements with AT&T and Sprint to stream music for a small fee. Hopefully this along with the in-home consumer-electronics agreements it has will keep it going.

Second Life: This one could die off. I could see it happening due to the massive infrastructure costs. Rumor has it the platform will spin off an enterprise offering soon. If so, this will potentially bring in revenue as I believe virtual worlds will play a larger part in future communications.

Skype: Why would Skype go away? I don't get the thinking here. The company is growing revenue and one imagines in a slowing economy, more people will Skype than ever.

Ask: This search site keeps getting better and I try it monthly in the hopes I will like it. I never seem to like it enough to try it twice in a month though. I am unclear about how this site will do but I think it makes a nice acquisition target for Microsoft and even Oracle.

Perhaps the most important thing to take away from this article is that companies need revenue models or investors with the deepest of pockets to make it through any slowdown. Remember though that one of the reason's Google has done so well these past years is that they were busy building a search engine and investing heavily while others lost funding and abandoned the market.

In other words, when we come out of this housing/financial storm, there will be a string of new winners in a number of markets that will be really tough to compete with. It happens every time. The question is, will investors have the patience and funds to ensure these companies cross the chasm to profitability?
One of the people with a long history in the communications space is Neal Shact (pictured) -- CEO of Communitech Services. In the past, Shacht has been a distributor in the headset market and has been early in many new markets such as VoIP, call centers and others.

Shact points out it is impossible for customers to know what they want in UC. He mentions the old story that Henry Ford once said people when asked what they wanted in transportation said, a faster horse.

His point: you need a communications roadmap. Don't rely exclusively on your UC vendor to dictate what you want and need.

You want to check out this podcast as it is rife with references outside communications -- and the tie-ins are fascinating. In addition, he has a way of bringing tech and communications together.

I truly hope you enjoy it.
As the convergence of television and the internet continues, there is still a basic challenge in finding a simple way to connect the massive stores of internet video content seamlessly with the traditional television. There are a number of devices which tackle this problem but none I've seen which seem to have the momentum to become mainstream. The marriage of the internet and TV is a huge opportunity and if done correctly, it will change numerous industries.
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Recenty I heard from old friend Brian Mahony (pictured), the VP of marketing at localcasting (in-home broadcasting) company ZeeVee. Mahony has worked at a number of companies on the cutting edge of technology in the decade in a half or so I have known him. When I met him in the nineties, he was working for Tundo - one of the first IP PBX companies which like so many others, ran out of funding during the dotcom/telecom meltdown. He then worked for a number of IPTV companies including Espial and Netcentrex  which was eventually acquired by Comverse Technology.

Now at ZeeVee, Mahony is about as full of energy as I have ever heard him and he seems to be revved up by the opportunity in front of his company which is becoming the defacto way to broadcast internet-based HD content to all televisions in a home.

What Zeevee does which is different from other approaches is eliminate the premise that a standalone TV box is the answer. In other words, it does away with the notion that you need an internet-connected box on all the TVs in the house. In addition the company does away with the notion that the standalone box should be a computer. In fact, instead of putting a computer in a box and connecting it to the internet, the company's ZvBox connects to a PC in the house and broadcasts HDTV internet video content throughout the home's cable TV cabling. Thus the term localcasting.

Once connected, the user sits in front of the TV with an RF-based remote control

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and watches virtually any Internet-based video content. In addition, the customer can use the box to watch locally stored movies and DVDs. This gets us to the next point which is elimination of what Mahony refers to as the digital octopus (pictured) - referring to the tangle of wires and devices which live near your television. Mahony further explains that the new televisions with their wall mounts have become like artwork and many people are not happy with the tangle of wires near their TVs.

The logic of using the PC as the heart of a converged solution is the PC can decode any content on the web. Mahony reiterates it is the best device (as opposed to a standalone box) for streaming television and videos and he is right. I should mention he says this because the PC can decode anything and specialized equipment would have to be constantly upgraded to achieve the same functionality. Basically the standalone box has to be a PC to function properly.

Mahony further explained that many of the networks do not like to have terms dictated to them by cable companies and moreover do not want to share their revenue with such partners. In addition they are yearning to get more internet viewers as these viewers can identify themselves and as such provide a basis for more targeted ads which can mean more revenue.

One network has even told Mahony (he wouldn't say which) that they are now making more money online than they are on cable. This is partly because viewers seem to be more loyal online - watching more episodes and in addition, old content which is posted on websites is generating massive amounts of traffic and generating new viewers as opposed to cannibalizing existing ones from TV.

Mahony explains the box works with all content and various formats such as Amazon Unbox (now called Video on Demand), TiVo, Netflix, iTunes and others. In addition, the company has something called a Zviewer (soon to be released in Beta) which allows all videos to be watched from any PC. One of the benefits of this viewer and this solution in general is menu system which allows access to a slew of content types which are updated regularly and is hopefully easy to navigate.

The system also supports Dolby high quality audio and Dolby 5.1 is in the works.

In addition, the remote allows web browsing meaning all HDTVs now have access to web surfing. So while watching a ball game you could use Picture in Picture or PiP to surf your fantasy sports stats.

The downsides are minimal - it is possible that configuration could be a problem but Mahony says it is pretty seamless and most users shouldn't have a problem. It is also a PC-only solution for the moment. In addition, a cable company or other broadband provider could make a stink about using bandwidth and limit your download speeds. This wouldn't be surprising to me as this box cannibalizes their primary revenue generator. I hope the FCC and politicians are reading and weighing the pros and cons of ISPs throttling bandwidth and in the process reducing the likelihood game-changing technologies successfully get into the hands of US consumers.

Mahony also points out the solution may not be the best for sports as IPTV and cable solutions provide better quality sports than what is available online at the moment.

In addition, you need an HDTV to work with this system but this is a minor challenge as well. Perhaps the last drawback is the price but even though the company feels the $499 price tag may be high for a consumer electronics device, it really isn't. I say this because to get a wired solution which does everything ZeeVee does for such a low cost is a bargain. Sure, we could argue all day about other ways to accomplish what Zeevee is doing but their different approach is also embraced by the IPTV carriers who also repurpose the in-house coax wiring. I consider this a major validation of a well thought-out product.

It is also worth pointing out there is no per-month fee to use this service and the company is purposely trying not to put up any walled gardens, meaning you can access any content for free once you have the box. Still, Mahony does not discount the idea that a lower-priced box subsidized by a monthly fee and long-term contract won't be available in the future. In addition, ZeeVee is in discussions with partners who may be able to provide more flexible pricing terms and other distribution models. I wouldn't be surprised if the networks themselves started subsidizing these boxes.

From my perspective this is a very intelligent and elegant solution to bringing the best of the web to the TV. There are certainly many ways to accomplish something similar but the combination of web access on the TV and the ability to access many types of media seamlessly from any HDTV in your house make the ZeeVee solution a real winner. I can't wait to try it myself.

Apple's Developer Can of Worms

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In a perfect world, a company who decides to control which applications can be downloaded to its devices would have no problem doing so. We live however in a world which is far from perfect and Apple is having serious issues controlling what can be downloaded and what cannot.

Recently the Cupertino-based company decided that a program called Podcaster which allows multimedia files to be downloaded wirelessly should no longer be downloaded to iPhones because as the company says, the software duplicates the functionality of iTunes. It would seem to someone like me who is not allowed to "legally" download the software anymore that this ruling is to protect Apple from a software program which seems superior to iTunes.

After all, it makes little sense to have to plug a wireless device into a PC when you want to download music, podcasts and other files.

I have a theory that iTunes will soon go wireless as well and this move by Apple is a defensive play to ensure the market for wireless multimedia downloads is there when Apple is ready.

But that article will have to wait for another time. For now, Podcaster has turned to Cydia, the open-source iPhone application installer and will focus on installing on phones which have been jail-broken -- referring to the concept of breaking the walled garden locks Apple has placed on its devices.

The question worth asking here is whether the negative PR buzz is worth it for Apple and should they open up? It seems there is a good deal of risk in driving consumers to jail-break their phones. Sure, the user interface is great and there is iTunes compatability -- but in the end, if a strong competitor comes along what will happen to the iPhone? After all, no one likes to be locked in by their carrier or device manufacturer.

See Also: IPhone -Find Those iPhone Apps With Apptism
Many people wonder how well the communications markets are doing in thse tough economic times and while the future is tough to know for sure, I just came across fantastic news. AudioCodes just confirmed its guidance for the rest of 2008.

AudioCodes is a major partner of a slew of communications equipment makers and also supplies equipment to service providers and even enterprises via gateways and other CPE equipment.

In short, AudioCodes is a pretty good barometer for the IP communications markets including contact centers and other subsets of the market such as wireless, etc.

WiMAX World 2008 Update

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WiMAX has gone through an overhype stage and now is like so many other technologies - VoIP included, at a stage where the markets are trying to figure out where the opportunities lie. Indeed, trying to determine what is real and what is hype is difficult to do and to cut through the FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) I spent time at WiMAX World in Chicago to learn more from the movers and shakers in the space.

I came armed with questions about deployments and the threat of LTE - the evolutionary technology theoretically enabling 2-3G operators to ignore WiMAX. In the last six months there have been numerous articles and technical white papers written about whether WiMAX is necessary.

To cut to the chase, I spoke with VP Chair, Marketing Working Group of the WiMAX Forum, Dr. Mo Shakouri who explained that the transition to LTE is more than a simple software upgrade as carriers need to go from CDMA to OFDM - which obviously requires hardware. They believe there is a strong marketing campaign being waged by mobile operators and some hardware providers who want to sow FUD in the WiMAX market.

In order to combat the threat from LTE the WiMAX Forum is feverishly working with companies to develop lower cost CPE devices as carrier profitability is tied to device cost. In fact, the cost of such devices should soon be in the $20-$30 range. He acknowledges that the increased FUD has slowed investment in the market but at the same time explains that worldwide, governments are pushing WiMAX as they realize mobile wireless broadband is crucial to the success of their nations. As a result they are allocating frequencies to make WiMAX a reality in their parts of the world.

From Shakouri's perspective, most every carrier will have to overlay WiMAX on their networks to provide mobile broadband access at speeds sufficient for future applications. He explains this is happening in many countries today and in a few cases, major operators are resisting this trend. I should mention that in the cases where operators spread FUD, it is coincidentally the case that the carriers do not own frequencies which would allow them to easily roll WiMAX out themselves.

This sounds to me exactly like what the major carriers and equipment providers did when IP telephony first started to become popular. They downplayed the new technology for years while secretly working on IP communications solutions themselves.

Shakouri also reminds us that WiMAX has a huge head start over LTE and laptops and other devices will soon be equipped with WiMAX radios meaning LTE will be at a disadvantage.

I interviewed a number of people at WiMAX World and they concurred with most of what Shakouri told me. Motorola was a notable exception. I spent a good amount of time picking the brains of Sudhakar Ramakrishna, Corporate VP and GM, Tom Gruba, Senior Director and Kathi Haas External Communications. Their take? It is possible for carriers to skip WiMAX and many are doing so. Indeed they agree that some say WiMAX has a three-year head start over LTE but they are actively engaged in providing LTE networks for their customers today. I pressed for an ETA but couldn't get one.

Motorola is truly agnostic in the LTE vs. WiMAX war and they will tell you they just want to do what is best for customers. Sometimes as discussed earlier this has to do with available frequencies. It is worth discussing that Motorola also feels they are well positioned in the wireless space as they are able to leverage their wireline expertise and also help carriers deploy their connected home visions.

My take is that WiMAX is happening today and has proven itself quite well. I have spoken with operators making money providing WiMAX service and they are happy with the price points and look forward to them going lower. LTE does have a tremendous advantage of a massive installed base of devices which will be upgraded by wireless carriers over time. In the end, there may be a winner but for the foreseeable future expect peaceful and in some cases, not so peaceful coexistence.

Other Important WiMAX Happenings


Chinese communications giant Huaweii has 29 signed WiMAX contracts, 35 trials and 2,000 engineers developing WiMAX products. One of the latest products is a Picocell available in Q1 '09. They also have the second generation of their WiMAX base station available which also supports CDMA, HSPA and EVDO.

Palasium uses Israeli military technology to cancel interference in WiMAX networks. Think of it as noise cancelling for WiMAX. Using software, the company is able to target the interfering signal of adjacent antennas by producing waves which cancel them out. The result is lower cost and denser networks with less interference and QoS problems.

Comsys is one of the few companies in the WiMAX chip space with experience in GSM. The company targets device manufacturers and one recent Taiwanese company, dmedia is using the Comsys ComMAX CM1100 baseband chip as part of a GPS device which allows real-time views of traffic at various intersections.

Soma Networks - a long-term WiMAX equipment provider has recently inked a deal with Indian telecom giant BSNL and will provide services on a revenue sharing basis. The company will seek more deals of this nature going forward.

Wavesat - a fables wireless semiconductor company thinks they have a home run with their low-power SDBC or software defined baseband Odyssey chips which allows an OFDMA core and a definable air protocol. The company will soon have a chip which does WiMAX or LTE - meaning lower prices than traditional chip vendors such as Beceem.

San Diego based NextWave Wireless sells WiMAX chips which are ideally suited to video applications. The company's MXtv technology allows true mobile multimedia over WiMAX networks. The company also provides a broadcast service and owns spectrum which they are actively selling. To be honest the company's strategy is unusual - it seems overly broad. Then again it is similar to Qualcomm, a company who has been very successful doing similar things.

It is worth pointing out the company is in the sweet spot of the future - mobile multimedia. It will be worth watching if they can pull off their ambitious goals of being a premiere WiMAX chip vendor in multimedia and other applications.

Fujitsu Semiconductor has made waves with their new Femtocell SoC which supports 30+ meters of coverage and self-organizing networks Devices based on this chip will allow true connected home functionality on a licensed band and moreover allow cable companies to build the equivalent of p2p networks where their networks in dense areas could rival those of wireless carriers. The company is optimizing their chip for sub $100 CPE cost.

Alvarion has over 230 deployments with over 50 being mobile. India and Russia are some of the hottest areas for WiMAX growth according to the company and Alvarion is now the OEM and R&D WiMAX arm for Nortel.

Altair Semiconductor has a laser-like focus on low-power WiMAX chips and showed these chips off to me. These low-cost chips do not require external memory and are perfect for applications where battery life is critical or in areas of the world where device cost is a major issue.

Asterisk World Comes to ITEXPO

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digium-asterisk-world[1].jpgAs a major supporter of open source -- especially in the communications market, I cannot be more thrilled to announce that Digium will be co-hosting Digium/Asterisk World at ITEXPO this February in Miami.

It is well-known that open source companies consider ITEXPO an important event and one where they come to meet service providers, resellers and other companies looking to deploy open-source solutions. This news solidifies TMC's commitment to open source as a solid choice for companies looking to not only purchase today's solutions but to resell and develop tomorrow's breakthrough products.

Mark Spencer, founder and CTO of Digium and original creator of Asterisk had this to say about this news. "Hosting Digium|Asterisk World at ITEXPO East 2009 will allow us to share the vision and power of Asterisk with a broad set of customers who might not be familiar with open source. By giving them their first taste of Asterisk, we empower them to not only save money but to use and create new technologies that never existed before."

For my part, I salute Mark and his company which has brought open source communications so far, so quickly. The entire open source communications market has gained massive credibility due to Digium and the many other pioneers who supported Asterisk over the past years.

As always, all members of the open source community are welcome at all TMC expos and to learn more about this news, please visit the Digium/Asterisk World section of the ITEXPO site.

We looking forward to seeing you all February 2-4 in 2009.

T-Mobile G1 Google Phone Emulator

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Like you, I am very curious to see how the much discussed Googlephone the G1 based on Google Android will function. Will it be more like Windows Mobile or iPhone I wondor. After spending some time with the new G1 emulator I would have to say this new media darling is more like Windows Mobile with some Google Gmail type functions.

The emulator is not fully functional. You can't send email, use the GPS features or make "real" phone calls. But still, you will get an idea how this thing will feel if you buy it on October 22 or thereafter.

Would I buy one? I am not sure at this point. I didn't see any features which are really better than Windows Mobile and it isn't as slick as an iPhone. Moreover, Google services can be synched with the iPhone or Windows Mobile so I am still searching for the niche this device will fill.

Google execs tout the openness of the OHA/Android software interface and developer ecosystem and this could be an area of differentiation. But Google must realize that for developers to develop in massive numbers, they need to see massive demand for the phone. A real chicken an egg problem for the search giant. I can't wait to see what the demand for this phone looks like. At this point I just can't see it being super-strong. Hopefully I am wrong because I am pro-competition and as a Google shareholder, investors will be watching the success of this device very closely and they could take down the stock if this shiny new wireless gasget doesn't fly off the shelves.

More from engadget.

Navigating the Financial Crisis

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I have been getting more and more questions on where the communications market stands in light of macroeconomic conditions. It is a constant in my frequent conversations. In most cases, when I get this question, people tell me their business is good but they wonder if the housing market problems will trickle down into the telecom space.

The answer is simply, I do believe there is risk to all sectors of the global economy. For the first time in my memory, US and other political leaders have come on TV and mentioned the term global crisis on a frequent basis. This sort of talk shakes confidence. This is simply the way it works.

The question we need to ask is how do we benefit in such a scenario or at best, how do we tread water so our sales, revenue, income does not decrease?

Most importantly, you need to focus on areas which save your customers money and make them more productive. UC, telepresence, workforce automation, FMC and other technologies pay for themselves quickly. In addition, SIP trunking is a natural in this market... You save your customers money and get a recurring revenue source if you are a service provider or reseller.

Subsets of the communications market are on fire. Mobile banking and WiMAX are a few. Emerging markets and rural America are ripe for wireless broadband.

In fact, these markets are ripe for all forms of communications and penetration in many cases is extremely low. Of course this equals tremendous opportunity.

In a slow market there is pressure to purchase less but we have crossed the chasm of mobile web browsing these past years and we will see more devices with mobile broadband and this leads to the increased use of the internet on the go. As this trend continues - the opportunity for wireless services increases as well. This leads me to the mobile application market. You need to have an application which works on the iPhone, RIM devices and eventually the Gphone. Don't forget about Windows Mobile or Nokia by the way.

I have seen many recessions in my day and the telecom space is one of the few which saw something called a nuclear winter between 2001-2003. What I learned from these experiences is that every slowdown ends at some point and customers do not ever stop buying - they may slow, they may delay, but they don't stop.

In other words, even if things slow down in our space, they will speed up again. The strategy for making sure you come out the other end of a slowing economy in a better position than you are in today is as follows:

Conserve Cash: This is obvious but how you do it is crucial. If you cut your PR, marketing and R&D, where do you think you will be in a slowing market? None of these areas can be cut by more than a few percent. If you have to cut a bit more, R&D is the area to cut incrementally from. The reason is that the feature wars most companies fight are less important than explaining to customers why they need to buy your products.

Keep in mind, every company you sell to now has to go through more internal scrutiny before they buy. You need to reinforce sales with more marketing and sales efforts. In order to last in a slowing market you need to ensure you are still selling. If you are too heavily R&D focused and don't do marketing and PR effectively, hire an agency to help you immediately.

Become More Productive: Every company needs to operate at 100% efficiency. Cut off your dead wood. Do it today. It is time to let the complainers and high maintenance people go. If they aren't happy, you are doing them a favor. Believe me; it will work out better for you and for them.

Rally the Troops: Explain to them why they need to work smarter, harder and faster. Customer service is key. Don't lose customers because of bad service.

Hire PR/Marketing People: If you aren't strong in these areas, you have to hire an agency or top people who can help you market more effectively in slow times. I have witnessed many millions of wasted marketing dollars in my life. Spending a marketing budget and spending it wisely are totally different things. A million dollar marketing budget can be blown stupidly with 10 newspaper ads or used much more effectively in focused media vehicles where your potential customers are actually looking for your products.

Market Analysis: There are hundreds of small companies which are engineering driven in the communications space which do not know how to market. Companies founded by engineers are typically the worst run from a marketing perspective. (Remember - I am an engineer myself so no insult intended - we aren't sugar coating here). These companies - where the engineer runs marketing are likely going to have trouble selling products in a slowdown (or any other time for that matter). Keep your eyes open for acquisitions or weakness in the markets you serve. Keep your ear to the ground. One of these small companies about to go under may have good ideas for products but just no clue how to sell them. You may determine developing a competitive product/service to one of these small companies makes sense.

Speed: It is better to be fast than right. After all, you can't be right every time but if you are fast, you can adjust and become right faster than the other guy.

Optimism: Be optimistic. If you are smart and run things well and your entire team works together to support you, your company can come out of any downturn stronger than it went in. Sure, be cautious --but in the end, business is cyclical. It just is. That is the nature of the beast. Work harder, faster and smarter and you will be rewarded.

Remember, things are still generally good in the communications and technology markets and if you follow these rules you should make it out the other side of any slowdown in better condition than you are in today.

Mobile Banking to Skyrocket

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If you are looking for business opportunities, you may want to think about mobile banking as the market is set to take off. When you consider analysts estimate over 100 million mobile banking users will be created in the next few years, you realize -- wow -- there is serious money here.

The question is -- who will be the leaders in the space? PayPal and credit card companies are naturals. But there will likely be niches held by players in security, authentication, etc.

If you have a novel mobile banking application -- be sure to drop me a line so I/TMC can consider coverage. Thanks.
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