Technology Projections

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Technology Projections

Here is an e-mail I received today. My comments are in red.

Please find below The Radicati Group, Inc.'s bi-monthly "Radicati Market Stats & Industry Commentary". Here you will find some fast facts from our various reports and analyst quotes on recent industry news which you may feel free to use for citing in upcoming articles. 

EMAIL

We estimate that there are 815 million corporate email clients in use, including both desktop and Web-based clients. MS Outlook makes up approximately 60% of those (489 million).


60% Seems very low.


IDENTITY MANAGEMENT


We estimate that for every $1 spent on the acquisition cost of enterprise directories, an additional $3 is spent on professional services.

Spearheading the further development of the Identity Management market, some directory vendors are starting to offer not only better integrated suites, but also more simplified suites, combining many solutions into 2-3 major offerings, with much richer capabilities.

The total identity management market is expected to reach almost $10.2 billion by 2008, up from $738 million in 2004.


Seems like massive growth but with all the issues of identity theft, Phishing, etc there needs to be serious resources devoted to identity management.

HOSTED EMAIL

By 2008, we expect the worldwide market for hosted business email to reach $788 million, up from $501 today.

Seems reasonable.

SECURITY

The email encryption market will grow at an average rate of 71% per year from $34 million in 2004 to $287 million in 2008.  

The total market for e-mail anti-phishing and anti-fraud solutions (including both e-mail anti-phishing and anti-fraud vendors) is expected grow from $202 million to over $880 million by 2008.

How will governments keep up with ever-changing and evolving encryption technologies? There are serious homeland security implications here. Of course I know there will always be ways to unencrypt data if a corporation wants to do so but how will law enforcement agencies monitor packets on the Net if needed? I assume there are times they would want to read e-mail without alerting the people with the keys.


UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS

By 2008, we expect that the worldwide UC installed base will surpass 95 million, and worldwide UC revenue will total nearly $10.5 billion.
 
Is this unified messaging? Not sure what is meant here.

VoIP

We expect corporate IP telephony revenue to reach $5.5 billion by 2008, an increase from $1.0 billion worldwide in 2004.

This is in line with what I am currently seeing in the market. Assuming no geopolitical problems, etc this growth rate seems sustainable.

WEB SERVICES

We expect the North American market to grow to $2.7 billion by 2008, from $494 million in 2004.


Also in line with what I am seeing. My experience comes mostly from the communications side of things though.

These are some of the most optimistic forecasts I have seen since 2000 but they all seem reasonable and in line with current trends. Is technology back for good? It is too soon to tell but there are certainly sectors of technology that are exploding with growth. Although I haven’t read the report, I wonder if it takes into account VoIP peering and p2p VoIP. These two technologies will have a drastic effect on how companies in the VoIP market generate revenue.



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