June 2009 Archives

The Death of the Cassette: Anthony Robbins

June 30, 2009 6:26 PM

My TV keeps me company in my late hour work and my hotel rooms.  Often I wake up to the infomercial dujour.  Anthony Robbins is on a lot these days with a 19.95 offer.  I have been trying to understand why so cheap.

Then I noticed the offer was only for the audio cassette.

My guess is that he got caught thinking that cassette was a constant business. I think we can assume that the tipping point has occurred for digital media.

This point is important for us to learn from.  A friend at Cisco was instrumental in making sure the 5000 series did not ramp up for continued growth in dialup.  He showed the bell curve and warned that the demand was going to have them over produce.

Understanding how to manage user demand is a real problem as we converge the business.  CDMA was never in Apples cards, which made the relationship with ATT the right choice.  (A friend and I were trying to figure out how hard the IPhone would have impacted ATT if Verizion had had the exculsive).  But given the desire to serve the world 3G was always in the cards for the Iphone.

Nintendo had the same problem with managing WII demand.  (Do you think they could have solf more if demand was matched in the early years?)

Now we have to cope with convergence CDMA, HSPA, GPRS all coming to re

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Face(It)Book: Get Over It!

June 30, 2009 5:18 PM
Sitting here waiting for my Penetration Testing class, I am reading a copy of MIT's Technology, particularly the Simson Garfinkel article regarding Facebook.


It's a pretty good read and asks the interesting question?  Why are so many privacy advocates on Facebook? This is the reality of security.  Not only is it a second class, terceriary consideration.  Event its advocates are willing to ignore the risk for the sake of being "where the action is".

The reality is that repetition is reputation and the view of people about Facebook is that the security is pretty good.  This view is based on all these levels privacy restriction.  Mind you the latest status release from Facebook has been written up in the market as an added privacy feature.

But this is the real issue, words like privacy and security go hand in hand in peoples minds as part of a security strategy.  But publishing your presence status does not enhance the privacy.

Its a lot like love and marriage,  privacy and security can be a blend but can just as easily have very little to do with each other.

At the root of Facebook is the opportunity for malicious attacks.

You have "zero security" as Scott McNeally has said in years past, "deal with it!"

And for most part people have.

When my own computer was stolen my identity was very vulnerable to compromise.  I am still trying determine the extent of the damage done to my network, but so far it looks like my MAC has not been used to visit the same sites as mine.

But these issues of security are of great concern.  I have recieved spam from friends, and of course invites and causes that might as well have been spam.

From my own perspective I can not image this is going to be the norm for the rest of our lives.  I expect security is going to become more than a fear and into an action. 

For myself I now think of Facebook as something to send to, not to reside on.  I am back to email.  Unfortunately it is GMAIL.  Which I will write about my frustrations with that system presently.

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Nortel Enterprise Two Buyers (Together) are Better than One

June 29, 2009 1:52 PM
First of all congrats to Nokia Siemens.  I always wondered why the domain is NSN.  From now on this will be Nokia Siemens Nortel in my head.

Here is a thought about the rest of Nortel.  Nortel Enterprise is not just about voice, its about transport and other tools that are within an enterprise.  So who is the logical choice to acquire.

The rumor mill says that Avaya and Siemens Enterprise are already in the bidding war. However, hedge fund companies adding more distress to the mess is not their normal strategy (think of Chrysler / Cerberus). I can make a case for both and of course Cisco, but I have another idea. 

Digium has a very strong relationship with Adtran.  While it looks like Adtran is losing people the beginnings of Digium started with Adtran. 

The reason I suggest this two partner acquistion is based on the remaining assets of Nortel Enterprise.  The PBX is only 1/3 of the asset and its a hardware intensive solution.  However a Asterisk adjunct box (particularly if it can support SkypeIn Skype out) is a no brainer value proposition.  (Heck Ebay might even put some money in).

Now comes the other parts.  Over 2/3rd of the value is in rock solid government and networking equipment and for Adtran this would represent a new energy into a company that has been strong but needs to augment the porfolio for government contracts. 

Mind you if the dollar numbers I am hearing are true this is kind of a stretch, but I have seen the numbers rumored and the numbers signed to vary greatly. It may be worthwhile for Adtran and Digium to jump in. Continue Reading...

Out in the Open Oracle

June 29, 2009 11:08 AM
Reading the Wall Street Journal, I saw the Justice Department is extending the review of the Sun acquistion by Oracle.  Ben Worthen, pointed out in the article,  In April, Oracle Chief Executive Larry Ellison called Java "the single most important software asset we have ever acquired."

This is the critical issue in the Justice department mind.  Hardware no worries, Databases no worries.  JAVA not so fast.

SUN has done a great job enabling the third parties to adopt the JAVA and as they have said continually,  IBM is the largest JAVA developer. 

Given the ecosystem of JAVA, I am not sure there is much to worry about.  I can imagine some optimization for Oracle and as long as the Java Community Process continues.  Having said that, it would be nice if JAVA became more stabilized as a standards effort.  This is the one place I would focus as the Justice Department.

After that I am hoping that Larry gets his Internet Toaster.  Back when I was in the carrier, I kicked the Oracle folks out since they had an expectation that I was going to provide local loop Ethernet. 

Today the vision can be accomplished and Larry should bring it back and with an Open API.  You would be surprised what things are available when the database can be networked.  New federation opportunities exist and SUN asset will prove its value.. 

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The Dead Zone: The realities of Coverage

June 27, 2009 5:56 PM
While roaming the Internet, looking for things to make my Blogging more interesting to you the reader, I came upon Jeff Cohn's Coverage maps. 

I am sure you have seen the Verizon Dead Zone commercials. 

Looking at Jeff's maps you come to understand that living in an NFL city skews your perspective on coverage and makes the stimulus goal of unserved areas easier to grasp.  Mind you the economics are hard.  After all the Alvarion / Open Range announcement talked about 6M people in 17 states.  Its hard to get critical mass in some areas.

When I worked for what is now Verizon in NY I was struck how much of New York State might as well be US West territory.   When my pal Mark Hewitt showed me the plans to connect the fiber rings in NY I immediately recognized the holes that were being filled by their plan.

As will be discussed at 4GWE, If we are going to make the Internet available on broadband to everyone its going to take more than any one carrier can give us.  

One last point about the maps.  If you look at them you can see that unserved is a much greater problem then underserved.  It will be possible for the competitive providers to claim they need stimulus, but my hope is that Chairman Genachowski will focus on the unserved.  They are a greater need and more important to the greater good imho.  I base this on the believe that economies of scale work in our favor where people are served, I would venture a guess that whoever is servicing the area might be open to enabling wholesale.


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Natural Selection and Evolutionary Process

June 27, 2009 9:41 AM
Investor's Daily has a nice article on how wireless operators in the US have hit the saturation point.  While I keep trying to talk about nothing but the broadband wireless network of the future, consumers are selecting an alternative direction.   

Prepaid services are on the rise with companies like Boost (Sprint brand), MetroPCS and LEAP.  These services are strictly voice and text, with very little intention to use the wireless Interent at the moment.  One exception is American Movil which is testing a $30 a month plan that includes browsing.

For the large players world wide the story is a mixed bag.  On the positive revenue side the smartphones are on the rise to by 12% worldwide.  On the negative side the overall worldwide market fell by 9%.  (statistics courtesy of IDC in the article). 

While almost half of the market lost revenue worldwide domestically ATT is up almost 10% and its all thanks to Apple.  Mind you I am not sure those dollars translate to the net given the contract with Apple but we have to tip our hats to them.  Solid growth and from what I can tell loyalty.  I have not see the numbers, but I am guessing that 3GS has a lot of first generation iPhone users coming back.

Its seems for a great many consumers we should have a sign that says "Its the text stupid".  Their connectivity is about SMS.  For me, this feels like a market ripe for arbitrage which brings me back to the real value of the Internet.  The ability to evolve applications that grow the community.

From a 4GWE perspective the obvious question is what should we expect for the data needs.  As people are texting like crazy should we expect the data side to segment into low end services as well?  That will on my mind with our community in September 1-3 in Los Angeles.

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Wireless Backhaul is Fiber?

June 26, 2009 10:44 AM

Our pal Gary Kim highlighted up the In-Stat report on Wireless Backhaul. 

Its an interesting report and helps to show some segmentation in the marketplace.  For Verizon the LTE build out has them moving as much as possible to fiber and MetroEthernet.  

Outside of majority the base stations are taking advantage of the Microwave which means Fixed WiMAX is a winner for a lot of implementations.

MetroEthernet is going to claim about half of the market place according to In-Stat because the migration to support data means circuit switch trunking is no longer viable, and the equivalent costs associated with Special Access is becoming a bone of contention in Washington. 

As the network data traffic grows the relevance of the circuit switched models using T-1s is reduced.  Mind you the commitment to bring voice on to the data side is limited at best.

A very real benefit of MetroEthernet to the links between the RAN and the core network is the ability to have better distributed redundancy and QoS for traffic shaping.

At 4GWE we are going to look at the backhaul and give out the wireless backhaul awards.  I am hoping some innovative strategies apply.

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Apple Peals - Bob Borchers leaves.

June 26, 2009 9:23 AM

Yesterday Bob Borchers informed the world that he was going to Opus Capital Ventures.

I keep getting told that Steve Job has made a legacy group that survives him, but the departure of Borcher and Rubinstein indicate some shake up is happening. Is this about the internal politics of Apple, has Steve's heirs been selected and that is why the departure? Or is it true that "these opportunities were too good".

Regardless of how good they are the impact to Apple has to be considered.  When a person leaves a team can be strengthened, When a team breaks up and you lose more than one person what normally happens is the individuals start thinking about their own needs.

After these departures, I am sure the premiere head hunters are smelling opporunity.

So how sure should we be that Apple will stay on top of their game?

If you read me regularly, you know that I am not an Apple fan, however the departures are survivable to me.

I am not an analyst,  but if I were I would not be ready to short Apple.  I would not be a buyer either.

 

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Context Aware Call Centers - Wake up to LNP

June 25, 2009 10:44 AM
I have a complaint.  I dont mind that call centers user my caller id to direct me, but i wish I could give my profile my other numbers, but when I call the 800 number that is nationwide and get directed to people who can only help me based on my caller id it gets annoying.  They can't transfer.  Its pretty lame.

And they should know better.  They are using Local Number Portability and help direct it as a solution, so why can't they accomodate it in their call center call routing.

Should be a no brainer.

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Best Buy Gets Smart about Mobile

June 25, 2009 8:47 AM
Yesterday, Scott and I were busy traveling to meetings in the city with companies in three separate sections of town.  At one point we past the Best Buy Mobile store at Union Square.  I wanted to jump in, but we were in a time crunch.

If you read the press release of the Best Buys earnings you discover that smart phones are pretty profitable for the retailer.  So much so they intend to add another fifteen stores under the Best Buy Mobile broad.

And its not just smart phones they want to display there but netbooks as well.

At the retail level the term Mobile Internet Device [MID] seems to be missing.

It maybe that with the advent of certified WiMAX rolling out this fall, the term MID starts to catch on.  Talking to Ari Zoldan yesterday, I was impressed with some of the devices solutions he was offering that was carrier independent.

I don't think this is the place where Best Buy makes its margins, I think they are somewhat carrier dependent for the margins on the smart phones.   So it will be interesting to see what kind of bundles start to happen with the netbooks.

I purchased a netbook separately from the Verizon MiFi from Novatel.  But and the HP Verizon bundle may have value to others.

Bottom line though is the Wireless Internet market is about to explode and it should be fun to watch.

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Intel Finnishing it Connections, or, That's Nokia with an IA

June 25, 2009 8:34 AM

Jack Gold who has consulted many friends in the industry and provide great analysis now at J Gold Associates has done a more thorough analysis of the Intel Nokia deal that I highlighted yesterday.  Having talked to friends in both companies, I think Jack understands the considerations very well.  Take a read.

 

Today, Intel and Nokia announced a long term strategic relationship. There are 3 key parts to this agreement: Intel will license Nokia's technology for 3G HSPA cellular technology for use with its chips; Intel and Nokia will collaborate on making their respective open source implementations of Linux for small devices (Moblin and Maemo) more compatible; and they will collaborate on future Intel architectures (IA) for mobile devices. This is a compelling partnership for several reasons.

 

 

 

First, Intel has had difficulty producing competitive cellular radio chips, going back a number of years to when it had the XScale product line before divesting it to Marvel. Nokia, on the other hand, has had compelling Intellectual Property (IP) in radio technology that clearly made it the world's largest manufacturer of cellular phones. Continue Reading...

Why we are here? 4GWE Rewind

June 24, 2009 10:39 AM
I took the liberty of heavily editing  Brough Turner or Dialogic discussion from the "Our Genealogy" session.  When we come to the west coast we broke up the tutorial so that Brough Turner and Fanny Mlinarsky had more latitude to talk about the current environment.

I placed the Video on YouTube.  Not sure how easy it is to find it has the same title.

What's great about Brough's analysis is the understanding of the prime movers in the technology.

This clip gives the perspective of the fact that like the landline network, the wireless network is being swallowed by the data requirements of the future.
In LA we are continuing the discussion about what it take to evolve the 4G wireless broadband.

In listening to Brough, one thought occurred to me is that iPhone probably drove the US 3G adoption way past Europe at the present time.  (Don't your get hopes, I have not reset my opinion of Apple.) 

Enjoy the listen and if you want to stay up to date with us join us at 4GWE September 1-3 in LA.

In the meantime if you want access to the presentations send me an email and I will add you to system.

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This is ARMless: Nokia & Intel

June 24, 2009 10:10 AM

In case you missed it yesterday, the great news was that Intel and Nokia started up their working together again.

Why do I like this?  While I covet an N97 (or even a refurbished N95), my favorite Nokia device was the WiMAX 810 tablet.  Mind you this announcement is for the 3GPP side of the equation.  Its also for Linux which means (I think) its more of a netbook than a phone.

As you watch the Silicon in the wireless devices of the future, various manufacturers are partnered with the subs or other partners for their strategies. 

Down at the base Silicon is in turmoil.  Hostile takeovers, forced mergers and stranded investments.  Nokia working with Intel to use the chips that are at the heart of the data revolution makes real sense.

One of our speakers at 4GWE is from EB Software who was the design support for the 810.  My own take is this will be the key for data network to deliver the full experience of the Internet.

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Twenty Reasons to like RIM over Apple

June 23, 2009 11:07 AM
Anton Wahlman, a good friend, who helps focus money and hedge bets, sent me this note.    

1.      Blackberry is a fully encrypted military-grade secure platform,
with 100% market share at FBI, CIA, White House, Congress, Department
of Defense, major consultancies and major investment banks.  There has
never been a virus or security breach on a Blackberry.  iPhone is
filled with security vulnerabilities. Continue Reading...

New Phones Apple pushes the competition around

June 23, 2009 10:10 AM
Last week the iPhone 3GS was announced and Apple says they sold 1M. 

Comparing that to Sprint's PalmPre and T-Mobile G2 announcement its a winner.  However, Apple's efforts to steal the thunder obviously succeeded.

Having said that the front end loading has been pretty annoying.  Apple basically did not let those of us who had minor needs into the store in some areas they were so busy selling the 3GS.

Myself, I continue to try to recuperate from the disaster of losing my machine.  Having gotten different support from the Genius bar and the Apple Care line, I continue to find Apple a back end system disaster.

Call your cell phone operator and they have your history.  Call Apple its like your are a new customer every time.

Which make sense given any problem I talk to them about generates a reset.

For the Apple lovers of the world.  You are right to love their interfaces.  You can even love their customer care.  I do not.

One company they are not pushing around is RIM.  My next post will be why RIM is the real gorilla in the room.

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