Digital Swarm

In the past I have talked about the "Gift Economy" concept (a term most recently coined by author Howard Rheingold) being critical to successfully unlocking the potential of mobility in the future.  (Gift Economies are defined by users investing effort/taking action for the benefit of the greater good versus expecting something in return as is the case in a transaction economy)  There are plenty of recent examples around us like Wikipedia, Participatory sensing networks like CitySense, or even the recent Arab Spring with regime changes coordinated via SMS/social messaging.  I now have an example right in front of me thanks to one of my colleagues at Mobiquity, Jonathan Stark, our VP of Mobile Architecture (and author of several leading books on iOS and Android Development).  Jonathan recently launched a "gift economy" type experiment by posting a picture of his Starbucks Card online and allowing anyone that wanted or needed a cup of coffee to pay for it with a picture if his card downloaded on the screen of the mobile device.   Continue Reading...

I gave two talks at the recent Devcon5 Conference in New York City on "Venture Capital in a Mobile Virtual World" and "Seeding the Start-ups"(http://html5.tmcnet.com/conference/newyork/Agenda/Agenda-at-a-glance.aspx)  Some of the highlights from my talk were: 1) Mobile is a distinct wave (personal, ubiquitous, payments, point-of-decision, behavior measurement, social context, and augmented reality to name a few); 2) Despite the fact that wireless VC investment is rising to $1B+ in 2011, in is still a shadow of the $4B spent in 2000 and pales compared to the $8B spent in Cleantech;  3) Of the 114 wireless deals done this year so far, 65 are early stage/series A and the largest deals included $100M in Square and $50M in Foursquare;  4) New York is quietly becoming a major investment hub for wireless on the back of its strong media/advertising corridor.  New York + Boston now equals the total VC wireless/tech investment in Silicon Valley in 2011;  5) Hot areas for investment include network traffic shaping/offload, video optimization, social media integration, apps/middleware, mobile analytics;  6) HTML5 is lowering the barrier to entry for mobile apps (less dependency on 3rd party software) and new apps store models like Facebook and Amazon;  7) the wireless wave is causing significant "creative destruction" and is presenting new opportunities at the boundaries/intersections of traditional industries (example - Kindle); 8) Large players will need to adopt a co-innovation approach in order to attract the participation of smaller companies with creative, innovative solutions;  9) Several carriers such as AT&T and Verizon have created co-innovation testbeds to make their networks/resources accessible to entrepreneurs/developers;  10) seed funding is available for good ideas and investors are willing to move fast (our own new venture, Mobiquity, was able to close on funding in less than 3 months from the initial plan)
The frenzy around mobile investment is building, but this time, the economics (cheap smartphones/tablets) and market reach (10B devices) are there to support the returns to make this more than another bubble.

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I have talked a lot about collective group behavior and "Digital Swarms" in past blogs, but collective behavior starts with single individuals changing their own behavior which is where mobile become such a revolutionary platform.  The notion of providing people information or insights that can "nudge" their behavior must be done at the right time, in context to have the right effect.  Something only mobile can do as a communications medium, since it can reach the "last foot" wherever you are.  Feedback loops have existing for sometime (such as showing you your own driving speed in a school zone or showing you calories burned on an exercise machine), but mobile is taking this to another level of engagement (http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/06/ff_feedbackloop/all/1) 
Whether its helping a patient take their meds when they are supposed to (a $100B+ impact to the US healthcare system), getting a consumer to curb their energy use at peak load times, getting a driver to practice safe driving habits, or getting an investor to save for retirement, every industry will be attacking the same universal problem of behavior change.   Continue Reading...

I recently ran a panel on the impact of Mobile+Social+Cloud on enterprise applications at the INNOVATE conference hosted by Global Logic in Palo Alto (http://www.innovate.globallogic.com/).  The panel itself was very diverse with representatives from SAP, SalesForce, Citrix, HP, SugarCRM, and Yammer discussing a range of issues from security and control of the cloud to changes in software development and business models.  While the group diverged on its views around the dependability of cloud services like Amazon EC2 for mission critical enterprise apps, they agreed on shrinking development cycles, the need for more “user-centered” design, and the drive towards more integrated or “stacked” applications. 

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While there have been a number of very cool Augmented Reality (AR) apps developed such as Google Goggles, Layar, Monacle, there has been little revenue to speak of produced by AR.  So until now, it has been about possibilities and cool factor.  But the recent activities by Sony show that AR may be hitting an inflection point (http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/37637/?a=f).  Sony has developed SmartAR platform to be leveraged in new games/toys.   Continue Reading...

Many of us in the wireless community have been talking about cognitive radios for years as a potential "game-changer" in the competitive landscape.  Not only do I still believe this to be true, but I believe we are now on the doorstep of realizing the technology instead of just talking about prototypes and pilots.  Of course the Gnu Radio (http://gnuradio.org/redmine/projects/show/gnuradio) has been evolving an open sources environment around software radio platforms for years, but the real disruption is likely to come from the current device manufacturers who have a huge incentive to incorporate cognitive functions into smart devices.  We are seeing the early signs with Apple's "Dynamic Carrier Selection" patent (http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/apple-patent-could-cut-the-carriers-out-of-the-iphone-equation/11341) would allow the users device to select the best network based on their location and need. Continue Reading...

In my book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution (http://www.amazon.com/New-World-Wireless-Compete-Revolution/dp/013700379X), I talk about  "Killer Bees" scenario where users lose trust in wireless networks due to breaches of privacy.  In this scenario, the Digital Swarm never fully develops to its full potential as users are unwilling to share their personal data for the greater benefit of all.  It will take a critical mass of health, financial, energy, security, or other personal data from many mobile users to drive real benefits.

The recent accusation of Apple, Google and other device/OS vendors accumulating user's location data without their full knowledge (http://www.wirelessweek.com/News/2011/04/Policy-and-Industry-Lawmakers-Apple-Google-Location-Sharing-Legal/?et_cid=1458682&et_rid=54169515&linkid=http%3a%2f%2fwww.wirelessweek.com%2fNews%2f2011%2f04%2fPolicy-and-Industry-Lawmakers-Apple-Google-Location-Sharing-Legal%2f)  This is now under congressional investigation and depending on how this progresses, could result in public backlash, or worse, new privacy legislation that will over-restrict the ability to track information from a users mobile device.  Much of the innovation going on around mobility today is around context-aware services or applications.   Continue Reading...

As many folks know, I am always looking for leading edge examples of Digital Swarm apps that integrate social + mobile + sensing.  One that I recently spotted comes out of colorado ski resorts from snow.com called EpicMix (http://www.snow.com/epicmix/home.aspx).  It allows skiers of all ages to immerse themselves in a social and competitive skiing experience with others on the mountain.  It is based on a RFID-enabled lift ticket that automatically tracks the skiers path around the mountain and logs points (or Pins) for each activity completed and vertical feet skied.   Continue Reading...

I have noticed an increasing number of conversations that use wireless and mobility interchangeably.  These represent complimentary, but different concepts.  Wireless is a radio frequency medium, just like Copper, Coaxial Cable, or Fiber, but uses air-space to transmit the RF signal.  Wireless can connect both fixed and mobile users or objects directly or into networks.   Continue Reading...

The recent New York Times article on security threats to connected devices, http://nyti.ms/hBLdvY, is a bit of a call to arms for device security.   The article discussed the ease with which a new web-enabled HDTV could be hacked to steal sensitive user profile information.  This example illustrates the lack of awareness among users regarding security threats to their devices including smartphones, TVs, media players and gaming consoles.  In the past, these devices had fragmented operating systems, were not always connected, and carried little sensitive data of high value.   Continue Reading...

Cisco, Microsoft, and Skype are all making aggressive plays to bring videoconferencing to any device starting with the TV.  Cisco is going the high-end route with its Umi (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/08/ciscos-new-umi-the-answer-to-a-question-nobody-asked/)  at a price point of $600 for the unit and $24.99/month for the service, this will truly be aimed at high-end consumers and professionals who are willing to pay for an enterprise brand.  Even if the video chat experience is good, user may get frustrated with the service given it requires 1.5Mbps of bandwidth.  Other alternatives include Skype which has been in the PC video chat game for a while and has now partnered with several TV manufacturers (Panasonic and Samsung) to embed skype into the TV inlcuding a wide angle camera (http://www.skype.com/intl/en-us/get-skype/on-your-tv/)  The service is free to other skype users.  Continue Reading...

As Ray Ozzie is exiting Microsoft, he has offered some views on the future of enterprise IT that are very provacative, saying basiclaly that those that faik to embrace the new model of cheap, available IT will remain stuck in the rigid, expensive, and poor user experience offered by traditional licensed IT models
(http://blogs.hbr.org/hbr/mcafee/2010/10/ray-ozzies-message-to-all-indu.html)  Ozzie's argument boils down to a cloud-based versus controlled approach to IT.  While I agree that ultimately, the user experience will be superior in a cloud-based model (any app, anywhere, any device), the path to get there may be a bit rocky, primarily due to the fact that wireless networks are not able to provide the QoS needed to consistently support many real-time enterprise apps.  An application like desktop virtualization or virtual collaboration will only work with a good user experience where there is high bandwidth, low latency, and high availability.  Without 4G being rolled out everywhere which will take several years, we will need to live with the patchwork of broadband wireless we have today.  Having said this, there are many improvement that could be made in a cloud-based approach using today's wireless networks such as leveraging WiFi in congested areas and creating seamless IP flows between WiFi and 3G network.  While 3GPP release 10 will make this more explicit, there are specs and technologies available to support this type of interoperability, yet due to the threat to current business models, many carriers are not pushing this.  That is until their networks become swamped, they roll-out capped plans, and users satisfaction plummets.  Stay tuned. Continue Reading...

The recent ruling by the FCC to open up "Whitespace" spectrum, which live in the guard bands of TV broadcast spectrm between 54-862MHz, is creating a lot of buzz (http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/206071/fcc_approves_white_space_wifi_on_steroids.html).  Prior to last week's decision, devices could only operate on a non-interfering basis and had to be able to sense and adjust to other local signals to avoid intereference using something like the 802.22 WRAN specification.  Companies like Spectrumn Bridge (http://www.spectrumbridge.com/Home.aspx) have been developing small-scale solutions in this space, but to build larger scale solutions beyond a few devices is very complex and requires true cognitive radios which are still several years from being truly economical.  However, the recent decisions allows any device to use Whitespace spectrum by simply looking up against a database of available whitespace in their local area based on providing their coordinates.  This is a much easier solution and will allow device vendors to take advantage of this new spectrum in the near term.  Given the tremendous pressure to offload stressed 3G mobile data networks, whitespace empowers users to create their own nomadic offload capability where WiFi is not readily available if their device can operate across whitespace frequencies.  This could certainly be disruptive is the carriers do not proactively move to help users integrate whitespace with other network resource options to drive a seamless experience.  If WiFi is any indicator, it will take lots of consumer pressure and innovation to make this happen. Continue Reading...

Precision location capabilities like shopkick(http://www.technologyreview.com/communications/26156/?nlid=3447&a=f) which uses accoustic triangulation to locate a smartphone within an inddor setting (now used by Best Buy and several orher retailers) are starting to change the entire retail experience.  By knowing exactly where the user is down to the aisle/shelf, you can push very targeted information/offers to their phone when they are "in the moment" of making decisions.  This could be a game-changer for advertisers and retailers alike.  It will be interesting to see what the threshold is for consumers being messaged throughout their shopping experience.  As with any new app or service, if the benefits/savings far outweigh the annoyance, then they will flock to it.  Otherwise, it could die like many early variants of location-based services.  The precision of these services is getting down to inches which could have possible benefits for supply chain/product tracking as well.  Irish company Decawave (http://www.decawave.com/) makes ultra-wideband chipsets that can achieve this type of accuracy.  It will be interesting to see what new possibilities emerge form this.  Maybe optimizing your path through the store based on your shopping list or knowing where that tough to find item is on the shelf. Continue Reading...

There has been lots of buzz lately around location-aware solcial networks such as Foursquare (http://foursquare.com/), Gowalla (http://gowalla.com/), and Loopt (http://www.loopt.com/).  Now Facebook is muscling into the game with its 400M+ user base.  It will be announcing a location-based service sometime today.  The real question is where will this lead us?  Right now, over 50% of users are willing to share their location information in exchange for useful data (advertisements, local info) according to a recent study )http://www.tgdaily.com/mobility-brief/51140-half-of-mobile-users-willing-to-share-location-with-advertisers)  But as the volume of targeted advertising increases on their mobile devices, where will this value exchange end?  In my book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution (http://www.whartonsp.com/store/product.aspx?isbn=013700379X), I talk about two future scenarios: Nature Aligns where users are willing to share everything with little/no security or privacy risks and get significant benefits in return that improve the quality of work/life; and Killer Bees where the use of personal data becomes toxic and is used to unwillingly exploit consumers and degrades the overall value of the networks that make this data available.  I am hopeful that companies like Foursquare and Facebook understand the fragile game they are playing and carefully manage the ramp up in a way that matches the willingness of users to participate in the value exchange.  If users begin to see little value in exchange for an ever-expanding window into their lives, location-based services are doomed to failure.  Continue Reading...