Where's the growth?

September 28, 2008

"Global Wireless Penetration to Hit 80% in 2013, Says Portio Research" [via teleclick] If all the growth will be in Africa, China, and India, what does that mean for European and US carriers? Cellular penetration is now more than 50%.

Looking at the ARPU stat: "Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) declines to $15.80 in 2013, down from $23.20 in 2005." With debt piling up from building out 3G and now 4G networks, how do you pay it back with declining ARPU? As more folks use the network (and use more of it), upgrades are needed to meet capacity demand, including in tower backhaul. Not to mention that the cellular folks have to pay inter-carrier comp for dropping traffic on the ILEC networks. I just don't know how this will work out, specifically for the US Cellcos.

VZW will be adding debt if (when) it buys Alltel. Add in LTE roll-outs as well as FiOS construction, where does all this money come from? (DSL adds are down).

Growth is not the end all. ARPU and profit (earnings) are. (According to Dan Caruso, the end all is cash flow).

Where's the growth?

On Rad's Radar?

Where's the growth?