Internet Will be Full by 2012

Peter : On Rad's Radar?
Peter
| Peter Radizeski of RAD-INFO, Inc. talking telecom, Cloud, VoIP, CLEC, and The Channel.

Internet Will be Full by 2012

"Nemertes Research continued to throw cold water on the future of the Internet last week, releasing a study projecting that demand for bandwidth on the Web would exceed its capacity by 2012." [PCWorld.com]

I just don't see how that can be. With 40G pipes starting to emerge. With Content Delivery Networks (CDN's) popping up every where.  The CDN's make most traffic local.  The CDN's are getting closer to the edge. Does that report mean that the backhaul traffic will overflow? Or the CDN network will exceed capacity?
Nemertes analyst Mike Jude says, "More and more applications are coming online that will drive expectations for service quality even higher," he said. "I'm not saying that the Internet is going to crash in 2011, but that people's expectations are going to be throttled. People will stop going to the Internet for those services." [PCWorld.com]
Jude goes on to say that people expect more reliability and real-time traffic from the Internet (which it was not designed for). And to get thta ISP's will have tiers of packages to deliver it. That's where the Net neutrality debate unhinges.

My skepticism tells me that it is just the Duopoly wanting to make as large a buck as possible from consumers to continue to get their 40% margins, despite the fact that their actions stall innovation and the economy. And the capacity can be made available, it is just more expedient to create a supply issue.


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