I keep reading about the new iPhone coming to VZW this summer. People, check your calendars: it's still 2010. And the exclusivity contract that AT&T has with Apple for the iPhone lasts until 2011.
As an agent with AT&T burn marks on my butt, let me point out that Apple gets monthly recurring revenue from AT&T for iPhone users. About $18 per month per iPhone times 4 million units. That's $72M per month and $864M per annum. (See here and here and here and here).
The moment Apple gives VZW an iPhone, AT&T will make it really hard to collect that dough. That's $1B of leverage.
It's certain that Apple will sell a lot of iPhones on VZW, but there's no telling how the iPhone will clog the VZW network -- all those stupid map commercials aside. Plus, if consumers hated the AT&T network that much, wouldn't they jailbreak it to the T-Mobile network? At least, to a certain degree?
BTW, if AT&T was losing the iPhone this year, would they be spending all that money advertising it?