Recently in cableco Category

The WSJ has an article titled, "AT&T, Verizon Still Pouring Billions Into Mobile Networks". It notes that cellcos have already spent billions upgrading their networks to 2.5G and 3G -- and now will spend billions more on 4G.

In addition, both companies are also dumping billions into International routes, domestic broadband networks, and their respective triple play networks, U-Verse and FiOS. 

On top of that, both companies have been acquiring companies, like Alltel and Centennial. Ummm, how are they not toppled over in debt? 

These companies have felt intense pricing pressure from cable companies as well as T-Mobile and Sprint. Customer Acquisition and Retention costs have to be high, even as ARPU remains about the same. Debt costs more right now. Wireline income has been declining for at least 4 years.

Where's the money coming from?

Our house has been a Bright House Road Runner customer for almost 12 years. And a DISH Network customer for 10. The DVR is dying on the DISH and DISH wants me to pay full price to replace it. Um, no. So I call Bright House (BHN) to upgrade my Internet and home phone package to Digital Cable. It costs about $35 more including HD.

BHN had a contractor out here in 2 hours to install. There wasn't much to install. I have 2 sets of coax runs in my house - one for BHN and one for DISH. All the tech had to do was plug in my set-top box and watch me change some cables out. The box was used. And you only get one box. The other TV's have to be cable ready but get less than 80 channels, no pay-per-view, no guide or channel info.

The DVR is basic at best. It is cumbersome to set schedules up. The DISH DVR was wicked easy with a great search function. I had issues with the DISH DVR software upgrade - like it erased my box - but even that version is better and easier than this hokey BHN DVR platform.

Remote batteries were dead. Set top box kept freezing up and clicking. BHN came out yesterday to swap out the set-top box. The new one doesn't freeze up.

The TV Guide was so slow that as my wife said, It takes 20 minutes to find a show to watch and by then its almost over. (Some channels do have a nifty feature that lets you start at the beginning.)  Every channel is in the guide. No color coding to distinguish between subscribed channels, PPV, and unsubscribed channels. So many On-Demand Channels that have to load to show you the available content. (And when you see the content, like Superman Returns for $1.99 which is playing on FX HD channel for free, you get frustrated.)  I went through and set up favorites and blocked changes that are useless -- that didn't work sincel all of them still show up. BSN digital TV service is awful. We are likely switching back or going to try DirecTV. 

DISH is struggling since it lost AT&T as a distribution channel. Customer servicie has slid in my experience. It is more concerned with gaining new customers than keeping old ones. In today's marketplace that is a dumb deal. Customer acquisition costs are too high.

FiOS is available in my neighborhood, but as anyone that knows me can attest, I dislike VZ immensely. Writing that check for my business POTS line monthly makes me grind my teeth. Plus I have seen too many of my neighbors go from Verizon FiOS back to BHN. Billing - Surprise! - and Customer Service - another surprise - issues.  And as the Washington Post writes here, there is a day coming when the RBOC financial house of cards will fall.

• Upgrades from 2.5G to 3G and now 4G is expensive.
• Handset subsidies.
• Almost flat ARPU.
• Buying customer growth through acquisitions.
• TV is the least profitable of the triple play - so while MSO's went from least profitable to most profitable, RBOC's went the other way.
• FiOS and U-Verse build outs;
• International backbone upgrades;
• Domestic IP Backbone improvements;
• new product launches like CDN and managed services;
• merger integration efforts;
• debt from acquisitions and network builds;
• healthcare and pension expenses;
• lobbying efforts - federal, state, county and city including for TV franchises;
• marketing and advertising expenditures; and
• customer acquisition costs in flat markets (TV, POTS, broadband, cellular)

All of these outpourings of big money has to catch up to their earnings statements soon, because there is too much going out. According to BHN, it has taken 500,000 POTS lines from Verizon. At $30 per month, that's $15M per month or $180M in one market.

Sorry for the free flow wrting here. Just giving you my thoughts.

I'm seeing a lot of news in our space but not enough time to cover it all or analyze it, so here's just the headlines:

DPI (deep packet inspection) by cable being investigated by Congress. It scares the crap out of Boucher (ARS). Cox, Comcast, NebuAd  = new privacy law being debated (NYTimes).

Broadband download caps: in the news all week because apparently TWC said that without caps, they won't upgrade any more. Well, I have news for them: if they don't upgrade they will lose customers. Can you say FiOS, WiMAX, U-Verse, and now Wildblue is testing 18MB service.  ARS notes there are caps even when not explicit like TWC.  VZW and others have usage limits built into the acceptable usage policy.

Clearwire is being sued - class action status - for ETF (early termination fees) and network quality issues (can you say: false advertising on network performance?). (see here and my twitter pal @morisy).

And speaking of Caps (no, not hockey, how about Comcast battling it out with the former FCC chief's ruling that cable companies can only have a maximum of 30% of the entire market? If we applied that to telecom - and why shouldn't we? - we would have to break up Ma and Pa Bell (Verizon and AT&T). Please note: I am all for that.  Meanwhile Comcast's defense is Freedom of Speech.

Lastly, Facebook exec becomes new CEO at MySpace. Too little, too late? And Yahoo! is closing down GeoCities free hosting services, which it bought in 1999 for $3.5B. The analysis of the deal is on Fred Wilson's blog. Worthwhile read for start-ups about what VC deals look like.

There are only 3 RBOC's left: AT&T, Verizon and Qwest. In the new Fortune 500 listing, telecom has 21 companies listed. The top 2: Ma and Pa Bell. AT&T has revenue of $124B. VZ is $97B. Profit for AT&T is $12.9B, and only $6.4B for VZ. I say only because the profit is half that of AT&T. I guess building out FiOS and buying Alltel costs a few bucks. And I bet it adds a huge amount of debt. Factor in the LTE buildout (after the 2.5G and 3G upgrades) along with rumor that VZ wants to buy out Vodafone's 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. I guess the New England landline sale to Fairpoint only gave them a tax credit and less debt, no real profit.

Notice that Sprint is # 3 on the F500 list but lost $2.8B on $35B.

Qwest is #6 after Comcast and DirecTV! Qwest's $13.5 billion in revenue result in less than $1B in profit -- just $681M.  But they did better than Charter which lost $2.5B; Virgin Media that lost $1.7B; and Cablevision which lost $228M on $7.2B.

We'll see how the pricing and marketing pressure affects these numbers in three quarters.

This from Telephony online and the Convergence Consulting Group:

The latest in an annual study of the bundled services market shows US telecom service providers are losing wireline voice customers at a faster pace and being transformed in the process into companies that will look very different from their traditional telecom roots. The Battle for the American Couch Potato: Bundling, TV, Internet, Telephone, Wireless, released this week by the Convergence Consulting Group, shows maintaining a broadband connection is increasingly important to telecom providers, as wireline voice services become much less important.

If you look at the numbers in that PDF report and you still think that the QBPP is a viable option or that the last 400K businesses in the BellSouth region will somehow see the light and convert, I have some land for you in South Florida.

I have written about this in years past: the telcos have finally hit the wall. Everything is flat or down now: TV, wireline, cellular, and broadband. Granted most numbers are for residential, not business accounts which agents sell, but this will affect the entire telco business. Telco moved from the most profitable service - Voice - to Internet (the 2nd most profitable) - into TV, which is te least profitable. Why? Set-top boxes cost $400 per pop. How do you recoup that $5 per month rental? Most of the pricing goes straight to the content. You know, Disney and ESPN want their dough. Then there's the network upgrade for TV (and high-speed internet), which although VZT says is under $900 per home passed, the numbers I see are closer to $2000. Let's factor in the advertising. I get something almost everyday from VZ. At even $0.75 per mailer that's $15 per month. Times how many homes passed?  See how that may slow the telco engine? Plus MSO's moved from the least profitable service (TV) to the most profitable (Voice). And MSO's are getting into mobile data and maybe cellular voice with Sprint.

When you look at the summary from Convergence Consulting Group, it looks bleak.

• We estimate Cable's double play base of TV and Internet subscribers YE2008 at 61% (we forecast 79% YE2011). The RBOC/Telcos residential telephone to broadband overlap was 33% at YE2008 (we forecast 54% YE2011). Hence, it's easier for Cable to add voice customers off this overlap than for the RBOC/Telcos to add TV customers.
• 2008 RBOC/Telcos residential wireline telephone line loss was 10%.
• Wireless Substitution was responsible for about half the loss and Cable for the other half.
• We forecast Cable will have 23% of residential telephone subscribers by YE2009.
• We estimate wireless-only households at 20% at YE2008.
• Wireless annual subscriber additions continue to slow, 2008 saw 15.6M (2007 saw 22.4M) and we forecast 13.9M in 2009.
• Data continues to drive wireless ARPU growth (voice ARPU is declining). We forecast that price competition, which intensified in 2008, will continue to increase going forward.

Telcos are building out high-speed networks for TV and Internet, which is costing a bundle, at the same time that they are forklift upgrading the cellular networks to 4G. Have they even paid off the debt from constructing the 2.5G and 3G systems? Meanwhile, Charter is bankrupt and the rest of the MSO's have to upgrade to DOCSIS 3.0 while also constructing WiMAX networks. All while the ARPU is decreasing and the customer acquisition costs are increasing.

With these kinds of pressures on the RBOCs, imagine the pressure on the ILECs without a cellular division like QWEST, Embarq, Windstream, Frontier and Fairpoint. Landline losses that cannot be off-set by TV or cellular revenues. Yikes! Basically, the EarthLink strategy right? Cost cutting as the primary executive decision. Right out the knitting until its over.

Where do you think Agents come into that play? With losses, an easy cost cutting measure is to stop paying agent commissions. Think about your Channel Partners in 2009.

CircleID has the story of ILECs and Cable companies once again fighting municipalities, like BellSouth and Cox fought LUS.

With President Obama determined to promote the development of open network telecommunications and smart grid networks we can expect the incumbents to step up their legal battles to stop this from happening.

In relation to the recent $7 billion stimulus package AT&T made a statement that it didn't need the money, but that it would launch a defensive campaign against any competitors using the money to encroach on its territory.

To me, it's anti-American for the Duopoly to fight the city. It's more taxpayer money that could be used for something useful that gets used to fight against two enemies of progress and innovation. Should Lafayette taxpayers have had to spend $500,000 in fees to fight the Duopoly?

There is case after case where the city or town with broadband including FTTB (fiber-to-the-business) has created jobs and added tax base while increasing home values. When the duopoly sues to stop broadband deployment, while crying that it is unfair competition, look at the profit statements of these companies. And look at what it is costing your community.

CircleID takes a look at America's Broadband Score

"Leonard Waverman, the dean of the Haskayne School of Business at the University of Calgary, describe a measure he developed called the 'Connectivity Scorecard.' It's meant to compare countries on the extent that consumers, businesses and government put communication technology to economically productive use. Even after deducting the untold unproductive hours spent on Facebook and YouTube, the United States comes out on top..."

What's interesting to me is the comments. How no one can find the US Broadband score is funny. (Heard of Google much?) It isn't so much the score as what the score represents.

We have a few problems to fix:

(1) ISP Competition for one. Many places only have one choice for broadband. Many have two - cable or telco. Few have three. It makes download caps and Net Neutrality a hot button that true competition would eliminate. (And please don't give me that 3G is the third rail because guess who owns that - Ma and Pa Bell in the majority just like they own the Internet backbone and the PSTN structure in more than 70% of the country).

(2) A definition of broadband. Is it 256k one way as the FCC has defined it for years? Is it now the new FCC definition of 768k? Or is it 1M x 1M minimum? Or is it 100Mbps? This would certainly help.

(3) Deployment versus Penetration. "When you look at the 2008 ITIF Broadband Rankings report ...the U.S. ranked 15th among industrial nations at a composite score of 10.25. The U.S. is reported to have an average download speed of 4.9 Mbps, which is a far distant behind Japan's 63.6 Mbps. In addition, the report states that the US broadband penetration comes in at 0.57%." [source] Here's the detail: "Composite Score: Each nation's overall score is the sum of its standard deviation score for each of the three indicators: Household penetration or subscribers per household, average download speed in Mbps and price at the lowest monthly cost per Mbps." 

We may have "broadband" deployed in a large swath of America, but the speed is low compared to other countries. Because we are a suburban and rural country, it takes more infrastructure to hit everywhere with broadband, especially very high-speed Internet Access (greater than 3Mbps). And because most places hit are single family homes - we do live in suburban sprawl consisting of McMansions filled with Yuppies and 2.2 kids - it also affects our score at the ITIF.  According to a CWA study, the speed in the US is just over 2Mbps.

(4) Cost! We probably pay more per MB than any other G8 country. We get less speed and pay more for it. That hurts us. Surprisedly, in Wilson NC, the Muni fiber sells 100MB symmetric while TWCable and Embarq just gape at the speed and price. Well, not gape, so much as sue that it's unfair that a city would provide services it refuses to.

So we have cost, penetration, subscriber per household (density), and speed. Can't do much about density, but you can improve speed and cost. Also, there is a Digital Divide in America. Poorer families do not have computers, so do not have a need (or a budget) to buy broadband. It poses a problem that funding broadband for libraries and schools is supposed to throw a rope at. The Pew Report reflects this chasm.

BTW, the Connectivity Scorecard study has been analyzed here and by my favorite snarky blog, TechDirt.

Time Warner has received approval from the FCC to spin off TW Cable.

"The separation of Time Warner Cable Inc. gets Time Warner out of the media distribution business altogether, something investors had been clamoring for. The company announced its decision to split up last month and said Wednesday that the boards of the two companies had agreed to financial terms.

Time Warner Cable is the second-largest cable provider in the country after Comcast Corp. with about 13.3 million video subscribers. It has been a public company for more than a year, but Time Warner had held on to an 84 percent stake. [CBS]

Here's something you may not have seen:

Time Warner owns 85 percent of Time Warner Cable shares. Just before separation, Time Warner Cable plans to pay out a dividend of $10.27 per share, which will result in $9.25 billion going to the parent company. [BusinessWeek]

Yesterday Nortel filed bankruptcy. I'm guessing it was a pre-packaged deal because of the way it went down. Seeking Alpha implies that the BK was due to a lack of urgency to turn the company around. Three CEO's that just didn't catch up to Cisco.

Then this morning DSL Reports is discussing how Charter is preparing to file for BK as well.

At Christmas, we saw Level3 escape the BK plunge, when the stock hit a low of $0.57 before jumping back up to $1.60 after the S&P release. Now hoovering at $1.

Interesting report from Strategy Analytics: More folks would switch their triple play provider if they didn't have to waste a day or two waiting for the install.  With that kind of stat, will any of the duopoly companies fix their install process?

People often claim to be satisfied with what they already have. 76% of broadband subscribers in the US suggest they are very or somewhat satisfied with their broadband service. But when they are asked if they would be willing to switch, three in every four say they would do so, depending on the price and performance of an alternative service.

Can't be too satisfied if you would switch.

And really the perception varies greatly. In Tampa Bay, I have used Bright House for broadband for 10 years at home and at the office. Rock solid. Someone on Twitter was complaining today about the Verizon install. In the course of the conversation, she mentioned that she hates BH. Me? I don't want to give Verizon a dime, but I want that one POTS line for my business - which they keep charging me more and more for - almost as if they were forcing me to switch. (If they would stop mailing me something every single day, they could lower my rates!)

I think the surveys are flawed. Or people don't understand what satisfied means.