On Rad's Radar? - wimax Archives

Three Big Jumps This Weekend

2012-10-15T18:06:09Z

The biggest jump over the weekend was Red Bull Stratos: "Felix Baumgartner captured the attention of the web on Sunday when he jumped from a capsule 128,000 feet above Earth and landed safely on the ground in New Mexico." [via Huffpro] Not only did Baumgartner break the speed of sound, but YouTube broke the streaming barrier previously set at the Olympics. 8M people watched globally as Baumgarter jumped from the stratosphere.

Another big jump was Japanese mobile operator, Softbank, plunking down $20.1 Billion for a 70% stake in Sprint. Sprint needed the cash to reverse its course in 4G build-out issues with WiMax and Clearwire. PCMag has a good analysis of the deal. I think that if Hesse gets to stick around as CEO this money won't mean jack! "Believe it or not, Sprint is still trying to deal with the aftermath of its 2006 merger with Nextel, network-wise."

Increasingly, it is a global telecom world. "Britain's Vodafone owns part of Verizon. T-Mobile is owned by a German company. AT&T owns part of Mexico's America Movil, which in turn owns parts of lots of other carriers." VZ just announced plans to spend in Asia. Level3 has been expanding internationally (which still hasn't helped their bottom line).

The third big jump was VZ into SMB Hosted PBX. I say this because it looks like VZ is doing things differently than others. For example, they aren't talking about cost savings. That right their is a huge jump for VoIP players. (Are the rest of you watching?) "Verizon Introduces ‘Virtual Communications Express’ to Accelerate Productivity for SMB - Now Companies Can More Simply and Cost-Effectively Employ Advanced Collaboration Tools to Speed Decision-Making and Enhance Customer Service." The other piece that marks a departure is that VZ's VCE works with Google Apps!!! VZ does notice that 5 million small businesses use Google Apps - and it doesn't hurt that many of those businesses use Android phones on the VZW network.

"Companies using Google Apps for Business can download a Virtual Communications Express application from the Google Apps Marketplace, which will allow users to make calls -- with one click -- from Gmail, GChat and Google Calendar. Individuals can also see if other Google Apps users are available to join a call instantly."

"A Verizon-certified phone and an Internet connection, from any broadband provider, are all that any company needs to experience Virtual Communications Express’ benefits of enhanced productivity through real-time collaboration with co-workers, customers and business partners. In addition, administrators can authorize and instantly manage the various features available to individuals through a dedicated online tool."

Another winner here is Broadsoft. VZ is using Cisco in Enterprise UC, but BSFT for SMB. That's a huge sigh of relief from Maryland.

Another jump was in patent trolling lawsuits. "Based on our sample, lawsuits filed by patent monetizers have increased from 22% of the cases filed five years ago to almost 40% of the cases filed in the most recent year. In addition, of the five parties in the sample who filed the greatest number of lawsuits during the period studied, four were monetizers and only one was an operating company."

Finally, we have had metering of mobile and cable broadband, but now comes the Piracy Police. From Torrent Freak:

"A set of leaked internal AT&T training documents obtained by TorrentFreak reveal that the Internet provider will start sending out anti-piracy warning notices to its subscribers on November 28. Customers whose accounts are repeatedly flagged for alleged copyright infringements will have their access to frequently visited websites blocked, until they complete an online copyright course."

Buying or Being Bought: Sprint

2012-10-02T04:23:13Z

In March, Craig Moffett of Bernstein Research announced that Sprint would end up in bankruptcy. MSN reports, "After assigning a 50% likelihood in March that Sprint would end up in bankruptcy as it raced to build a national wireless network to handle smartphones like the iPhone 5 and compete with stronger carriers -- and citing bond trading prices -- telecom sector bear Craig Moffett of Bernstein Research now says that readily available financing makes that prospect remote. However, amid a 100%-plus stock rise for Sprint in 2012, Moffett says that even if bankruptcy is not a near-term risk for Sprint shareholders, significant risks remain."

Bloomberg writes, "Sprint's stock surged 136 percent for the second-biggest gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index as the wireless provider boosted sales with Apple Inc.'s iPhone and began rolling out a faster network. Cash and equivalents stand at almost $6.8 billion after reaching the highest this year since the end of 2005." The debt stands at $21B as of June of this year. This includes debt raised for its network build, to fund Clearwire (its 4G partner for life), and for re-financing debt due in 2013 and 2014.

Sprint is sitting on over $6B in cash, according to Bloomberg. Coupled with easy available financing, Sprint is ready to start acquiring, as indicated by CEO Dan Hesse. Rumor has T-Mobile or MetroPCS. While Leap has a deal with Clearwire, MetroPCS does not (yet). Neither does T-Mobile, who made a spectrum swap with VZW. All this says that T-M or MetroPCS would be good buys for Sprint.

Here's the flip side: Sprint stop is still under $5 and it is sitting on cash - lots of cash. That makes them a takeover target. Nothing says that MetroPCS or T-Mobile can't buy them!

Obviously any move would create a mess. Clearwire and Sprint are entangled. Sprint is still unraveling iDen. We know that Sprint sucks at integration from acquisition! Sprint-Nextel was second only to TW-AOL in bad deals.

Bloomberg gives many reasons for Sprint-MetroPCS, including MetroPCS CEO Roger Linquist admitting that acquisition was possible. However, all that debt Sprint has may prove more of an obstacle than the FCC. Consolidation will be necessary for Leap/Cricket, US Cellular, C Spire, T-Mobile, MetroPCS and Sprint - to compete with the RBOC/cellcos and their stranglehold on the market - subscribers, spectrum and handsets.

One other glitch today: ATT talked the FCC into giving them 20 MHz of 4G spectrum nationwide! "Genachowski on Wednesday began circulating a proposed order among commissioners that, if approved, would give AT&T a free-and-clear 20 MHz of spectrum in the 2.3 GHz Wireless Communications Services (WCS) band for a new LTE network. " ATT is buying up as much 700 MHz, AWS and WCS spectrum it can including NextWave Wireless. This will make it impossible for most of the other carriers to compete long term. VZW and ATT will have the most spectrum. Clearwire with Sprint also has a hefty amount of spectrum. One more reason consolidation is all but required.

Cellular Mayhem

2012-05-18T17:46:16Z

Just looking at the news makes me think that the cellular industry is having a week of mayhem. Besides the mess I wrote about earlier this week, "US wholesale player LightSquared has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection amid efforts to resolve regulatory issues that have prevented it from launching its satellite service," according to Telecoms. "The carrier has been planning to build a ground-based LTE network, supported by satellites, but the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) blocked the project, stating that the proposed mobile broadband network will impact GPS services and that there is no practical way to mitigate the potential interference." That about spells it all out. Last I read Philip Falcone wants the FCC to give Lightsquared better spectrum.

WISPA stormed DC this week to plead at the FCC and Congress for more unlicensed spectrum. Everyone wants more spectrum, but only WISPA will settle for unlicensed spectrum. WISP's make a lot out of a little. Cellcos make a mess out of an abundance, which just goes to show that when you are too big to fail, you will fumble a lot.

Speaking of fumbling, AT&T is in talks with Leap Wireless. Yeah. AT&T needs to acquire more spectrum. How about you and all the rest of you just deploy the spectrum you already have? How about you have to give it back if it isn't lit in a year?

I like this comparison by the NYT: Sprint as a downer and AT&T Mobility as techno-Pollyanna. Sprint might be right about mobile payments, since I don't trust the cellcos enough to be my wallet. I have a wallet. A leather one. I trust AMEX. I understand the rules of using VISA. I have Paypal. What more do I need? Do I really need to spend my money faster?

The Big 4 Cellco execs riffed at CTIA. Yawn.

AT&T ripped into FCC Chair again and threatened price increases: "In the case of wireless, without additional capacity, which would have been created by our transaction, prices rise," said AT&T Senior Vice President Jim Cicconi." So you mismanage your network, can't buy your competition, whine about the FCC and then raise rates. Awesome! We have names for people like you.

You know I have a problem with Sprint and its CEO, but this headline takes the cake: A Better Network is Coming! Really? Could be get a worse network?

,p>T-Mobile thinks that VZ's deal with SpectrumCo (the cable alliance) is bad for everyone. "T-Mobile USA would like to have a chance to bid on the spectrum Verizon Wireless is looking to buy." Well, make a bid then. Sheesh.

The Union is against the VZW-Cable deal, "could mean the end of a competitive telecommunications landscape, saddling consumers with higher prices and diminished choice." Well, that and the Union doesn't get a piece of the deal. I do agree that this will end all competition, since the competition is a Duopoly. Now they would be working together.

Sprint is Losing

2012-05-17T15:01:30Z

I have had Sprint for a long time. Mainly, I have them because I don't like to give my money to the RBOC cellcos. I may just have to switch.

Sprint's network makes me think that THEY are an MVNO. The thing is constantly roaming. I am in NYC and the Samsung EVO Touch is constantly beeping at me that I am roaming. In NYC. In Tampa. In Miami. I am not talking rural America.

__PLACEHOLDER__

Sprint can not win customers with this type of service.

I had to give up my Blackberry Curve because it was just too slow and old. Sprint doesn't carry any Blackberry phones that have a good rating. I ended up getting a good deal from Sprint Retention for the Samsung Evo Touch. It's a tablet, not a phone. The keyboard is a pain to use and slows down my texting and email - which are the main uses I have for a smartphone. I can't really blame Sprint for the fact that Samsung making a tablet that they call a phone. I can blame Sprint for an almost useless network and a horrible selection of phones though. The two factors that determine its long term viability.

When Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett said that he was afraid Sprint would BK, I thought he was wrong. After a month of no bars in almost any building and the beeping of roaming, I have to agree.

CEO Dan Hesse had to return a $3M bonus. I say give him the money back as severance and look for a new CEO. Heck, look for a new C-Suite. That company has had a lot of time to fix its ills but it keeps getting distracted by stuff like Lightsquared.

Sprint had the perfect partners in the cable cartel with Pivot and other JV's. It blew that. Now VZW is courting them.

Clearwire is a cluster. Just buy it and build your 4G network already!

Wireline - you have the famous pin drop network that you fail to utilize. What's up with that?

Sprint was the MVNO for Qwest and lost that to a sales agent deal to VZW. How is that possible?

Sprint has the FMC Integration with MITEL and Broadsoft, but it takes almost a year to get to contract. And likely those partners will be as disappointed as Qwest and Cablecos.

These are real problems that management at Sprint are ill equipped to deal with apparently.

How come they were last to get the iPhone and have no exclusive handset deals for a cool phone?

Why did they make a $20B commitment to Apple for the iPhone? At $500 per phone, that's more than 1.5 million phones per quarter. Two million phones per quarter is $1B. That means it will take more than 20 quarters - 5 years - for this deal to pay off. It won't work. Just another bad deal for Sprint and Hesse.

Where Will the Revenue Come From?

2012-03-02T16:00:45Z

The screaming you hear is coming from execs at the global cellcos. For years we have been hearing how voice will be free. (Hasn't happened yet, but it has flat rated.) Now it seems the text messaging revenue arm is decreasing - 9% from last year globally.

According to this article, "Pinger and an explosion of smartphone messaging services -- like iMessage, BlackBerry Messenger, WhatsApp, Viber Media, Facebook Messenger and KakaoTalk -- have managed in just a few years to slash away at the important revenue that cell phone companies get from text messaging. Analysts say there's no end in sight to the financial blood letting."

This explains all the metering and bandwidth caps. Revenue is flat for cellular so they need to make it up in data revenue. When you are spending $7-9 Billion per year on the network, plus paying for roaming and having to buy spectrum, you want ARPU and revenue to go up.

There is also all this envy to Apple, Google and other cloud companies that are making money from apps, shopping and usage that the cellcos are not getting a piece of.

I think it is also why a good many cell phones do not have wi-fi. That tends to work two ways though: wi-fi is capacity offload while the customer is still paying you a monthly rate. Wi-fi upload may be how they save some money on capacity upgrades. Wi-fi capability in teh handset would also be a way to appease the folks who get throttled or capped. However, that doesn't help the carrier revenues. They just don't want to be a dump pipe, but every move they make seems dumb.

It's a Mobile Monday

2012-01-30T16:51:18Z

It's a mobile Monday as I get set to pack up to head to ITEXPO East 2012 in Miami Beach.

Yahoo was being Yahoo this morning as it announced - in the same breath - that it has launched a "Mobile First" mindset, then shut down 10 mobile apps. Granted, some of them were not doing well (like Yahoo itself), but it's schizophrenic to do it on the same day.

Patent house Klausner Technologies sues MetroPCS for Visual Voicemail Infringement. That's always fun - and profitable for the patent house. Hopefully, in this case, it doesn't mess up the consumers' experiences.

AT&T is now supporting DISH Network at the FCC on its deployment and usage of spectrum in the 2 GHz range that it acquired from bankruptcy court via TerreStar Networks and DBSD North America. In the Fierce article, it is suggested that the support is because AT&T has eyes for DISH spectrum. And as you have read, the rumor mill has AT&T bidding on DISH - for less than what T-Mobile would have cost. It will depend on the FCC rules on the spectrum.

Both Verizon and AT&T had bad quarters. AT&T attributed its $6.7B bad quarter to its $3B T-Mobile acquisition break-up fee. Some of it may be due to having too much focus on the merger you thought for certain was going to pass. VZ blamed pension liabilities on its loss. Windstream changed its pension accounting method.

Not for nothing, but the pension liabilities that VZ and CenturyLink (via Embarq) owe SHOULD have been funded all along -- not in lump sum, quarter killing fashion. I wonder if this is a boat anchor that will sink them?

While AT&T whines at the FCC about a "clear spectrum policy", can I remind that of a few things? One, you have spectrum. Deploy what you have! And try not to mismanage it this time, so your top execs don't have to explain it to Congress again! Two, what spectrum do you want auctioned off? There simply, at this time, isn't any. You and your ilk have bought it all up, horded it, did not deploy it, and screwed the pooch that is mobile data networks in America. Your pals at CTIA didn't plan well for the future either. Did you think that the spectrum was unlimited?

In more AT&T whining, there is this article about the roaming rules and how Sprint is free-loading. My understanding about spectrum was that deployment was required - with an expiration date. What happened to that? Where is the enforcement?

In cool news: Sprint has a $100 7-inch ZTE Android tablet coming out!

Woes: AT&T, Spectrum, Yahoo, RIM

2012-01-17T22:16:09Z

How badly does AT&T need spectrum now that the T-Mobile deal is dead? According to analysts (who are likely just trying to get press and pump up some stocks so they can make short term gains), AT&T has to make a move soon. T-Mobile does too.

I find this interesting because AT&T and T-Mobile are sitting on spectrum that they have not deployed. If you needed it that bad, you would use what you have - at least for now.

Let's look at Clearwire as a 4G wholesaler. Clearwire has a ton of spectrum - not all of it deployed obviously, because they need money badly to operate what they have deployed and to build out the rest of their nationwide network. T-Mobile could partner with Clearwire for 4G.

T-Mobile could also outsource their 4G network to someone like Nokia Siemens (NSN).

There is also Lightsquared. Oh, wait. The DOD kind of put the nix on that idea.

That must be why the analysts are bullish on DISH - and AT&T buying DISH. As a bonus, AT&T gets satellite TV and Blockbuster. That must be to counter Verizon buying Netflix.

MetroPCS and Leap are still in play in the bankers world of M&A. In the past, these two have had failed merger attempts, but this is a new dawn. Meanwhile, MetroPCS, which wanted to buy leftovers from the AT&T-T-Mobile merger, is saying that they could use Clearwire spectrum, too. Well, sign a wholesale agreement, Mr. Lindquist.

Today, we have both the FCC and CTIA stating that consumers will require 500 MHz of spectrum for bandwidth usage in the future. What they are really saying is that all spectrum will belong to 4 companies for all reasons - radio, TV and cell. You watch.

Comcast bought NBCU. Most MSO's own sports channels like MSG and YES. If Clear Channel, the mouth of Bain Capital's former managing partner (Romney), goes BK in 2014 as predicted, it won't be long before the radio, TV, news and cell are all owned by 4 companies: ATT, VZ, Comcast and Cox. That's my prediction by 2015.

in other news:

Jerry Yang, Yahoo's co-founder, has quit all positions at the company. This move comes as Wall Street is rattling sabers about selling yahoo off in pieces - even though PayPal's Scott Thompson just signed on for the top job at the struggling search company. Thompson has a big job on front of him. Let's hope that Yahoo isn't the next Kodak.

Another troubled company, RIM, maker of my Blackberry, reportedly is in talks to sell to Samsung, HTC, or anyone.

Oh, yeah, one more rumor: Sprint merging with T-Mobile after buying Clearwire.

Are You Going to ITEXPO?

2011-12-28T18:48:18Z

It's just about a month away from ITEXPO East 2012 that starts January 29, 2012. The Lowes Hotel is already sold out in Miami Beach.

I am moderating 4 sessions this time. Here they are:

2/1/2012 @ 11:00-11:45am - TRACK: Customer Engagement -- "Social Media Channel Integration"

2/1/2012 @ 2:30-3:15pm - TRACK: Next Gen Service Provider -- "Educating the Channel with Industry Standard Certifications"

2/3/2012 @ 9:00-9:45am - TRACK: Customer Engagement -- "Does Your Business Have a Social Media Strategy?"

At 4GWE on Friday the 3rd at Noon, I will be moderating "Wireless Access Open For Business" where we will be discussing fixed wireless as a last mile access choice. Then we will have an open discussion, kind of an Un-Conference.

You can register for ITEXPO or MSP World or Cloud Comm Summit for $99 until 12/31/11. You can register for 4GWE here. CVX for Agents and VAR's is no charge.

Asterisk workshop on the 31st is free (with any registration).

Julius Knapp, Chief of the Office of Engineering and Tech at the FCC, will be one of the keynotes.

Another keynote is Terry Matthews, chairman of Wesley Clover, MITEL, Newbridge and Counterpath.

Let me know if you are attending so we can meet up for coffee or for the Gathering Dinner.

4G is in Trouble

2011-12-20T21:45:13Z

AT&T had to give up the acquisition of T-Mobile.

LightSquared is almost out of money, says Reuters.

Clearwire needs money - not only to build out the two 4G networks it has promised to Sprint (WIMAX and LTE), but to continue operating.

VZW has been quietly buying up all the AWS and other spectrum it can get, which - if it gets through the DOJ and the FCC - would be devastating to everyone but VZW. If the cablecos actually start bundling VZW with their triple-play, as Forbes is betting, Clearwire - and subsequently Sprint - could be in trouble.

The top 4 cablecos account for most of the consumer broadband and a huge swash of the US. Partnering with VZW - which seems so weird to me - means that

Sprint has MVNO deals with Cbeyond, TelePacific and XO. It used to have a deal with Pivot, a cable consortium. (I think EarthLink is also with Sprint.) It needs more. It needs CenturyLink and Windstream to be an MVNO customer. So does T-Mobile.

At this point, LightSquared has other issues besides money; they have GPS interference issues to deal with.

Clearwire just needs money to build and run. It needs customers who sign on for a minimum buy. T-Mobile could be one of them. So could WIND and C-Link.

Meanwhile, DISH is quietly fiddling with its spectrum plans. No idea what they will do. But except for VZW, right now, 4G in the US is a mess, which directly impacts our economy.

Sprint Deals With Clearwire

2011-12-05T21:50:07Z

The best details of the Sprint-Clearwire deal is at Marketwatch, but Tammy Wolf at TMC did a good job, too. Clearwire gets "up to $1.6 billion over the next four years in payments for WiMAX services, possible pre-payments for LTE services and potential equity investments" from Sprint. "Sprint will pay Clearwire a total of $926 million, approximately two-thirds of which will be paid in 2012, for unlimited 4G WiMAX retail services during 2012 and 2013, subject to certain conditions." So Clearwire is stuck with WiMAX until like 2015 while also building an LTE network. The speculation begins: is $1.6B enough for Clearwire? Who will buy the bundle (Sprint-Clearwire)? The Senate wants to know more about Lightsquared. DISH wants someone to build it an LTE network. VZW picked up the SpectrumCo 20 MHz from the cablecos. The cablecos will now be selling VZW services to its customers as an authorized VZW sales agent. (Isn't that stupid?)

It's Monday So Lots Happened

2011-10-17T17:21:24Z

Polycom bought Vivu, a video collaboration company, to help Polycom push it's Presence gear. Video, video, video. Yet I never have video calls or video call requests. To me, I wish you would work on the phone part. Give me a great looking phone that is easy to use and where the voice quality is awesome. Can you do that? Not really.

All the companies in this space are running to the Video. Why? Deployment and usage are challenging enough without trying to hook up video and make myself presentable. Fax over IP and HD Voice are still just a promise - and video conferencing off platform doesn't work.

It's kind of like talking about Cloud or UC, you are hoping for a stock bump or a PR bump.

Folks are at the Broadsoft show today being introduced by a 3D presentation. Then they will be peppered with alcohol to dull their senses so they can listen to BSFT talk about Video Conferencing (iLinc acquisition) through BroadWorks (Don't get your own; Buy more licenses from us!). Then I'm sure it will be about Mobility and Integration from the vendors that ponied up big $$$ to pitch their wares.

The one thing that gets lost in all this: there are too many VoIP Providers in the marketplace (over 1100 in the US alone). All of them are still trying to figure out how to sell more seats! Sure, they can sell SIP trunks but that is low margin commodity business. Hosted PBX is a higher margin (if sold correctly) business that is about to heat up as the cable giants - Comcast and Cox - roll it out nationwide and give away access in the sale. How does a Hosted PBX provider who doesn't own a network compete then?

And selling UC&C (unified comm and collab) mixed with video is a specialized sale. First, you need a base of Hosted PBX clients and a set procedure for deployment and on-boarding customers. Then you can have a process to upsell or chase a specialized market.

Meanwhile, we are all waiting for the FCC to make some decision on both USF Reform and Inter-Carrier Compensation. ICC will actually change the VoIP market a little. Not that anyone noticed, but the TRA is now a requirement for Inter-Connected VoIP Providers. Why not utilize the video and collaboration components to solve TRA and Communications for Disabilities? Then at least you would have a hot button.

I was going to rant about USF Reform -- like how we should kill the whole program -- like that would ever happen -- because spending tax money to outfit rural areas with broadband is kind of crazy, in my opinion. And its only 15 million Americans. How many will actually buy broadband? Maybe 67%? So 10 million? At a cost of 15% of the bill every month? That's crazy.

Anyway, on to M2M. Sprint is big in Machine-to-Machine wireless solutions and "has targeted four high-growth segments as the umbrella focus of its M2M development activities and offerings: Connected Transportation; Connected Meters, Sensors & Alarms; Connected Machines, Screens & Things; and Connected Personal Devices." [pr] Meanwhile, Sprint is hoping the iPhone bouys up their subscribers.

VZ is getting into home energy monitoring and testing 3G/4G networks nationwide. I'm sure that it will be an unbiased study of the 3G/4G world (MetroPCS, AT&T, T-Mobile, Cricket, Sprint and VZW).

And in another blow to privacy, VZW "has made a change in its privacy policy that clears the nation's largest wireless carrier to track its subscribers' Web browsing, location and app usage habits," according to the LA Times.

Did you know there is such a thing as Hardware-as-a-Service? Chartec and Outreach offer it in a partnership.

NTS/XFONE grabbed 1800 cable customers in West Texas from Reach Broadband.

ABRY Partners bought data center company XAND, who is either a hosting company or a data center infrastructure company. To tell you the truth, the way these press releases describe the companies involved, I know two things: (1) the PR firm has no clue what they are talking about; (2) the marketing department or firm has no clue what they are talking about either. Keep It Simple!

360, OpenRange and Hosting.com

2011-10-11T13:10:10Z

It looks like Zayo Group is going to buy 360 Networks. Back in May, Zayo and 360 entered into a long-term dark fiber deal that must have set off talks of an acquisition. (It explains why 360 was too busy to keynote this week.) Zayo, backed by M/C Ventures, reported sales of $77.8 million and a profit of $11 million in 4Q11. Instead of being acquired, Zayo is grabbing its 17th sale.

Hosting.com acquired Neospire, a Dallas based mission critical, managed hosting provider. It adds higher margin services to its portfolio.

OpenRange went bankrupt, Gary Kim reports. GigaOm's Stacey has been reporting on OpenRange since 2008 when they filed an application for a broadband stimulus grant. Now they leave the taxpayers hanging. The numbers look kind of bleak. A few of these broadband stimulus winners will turn sour. It's bound to happen because of many factors: the cost of accounting and reporting the grant is huge. It's been almost 3 years since the application and the landscape in telecom has changed a lot. In fact, some LEC's and cablecos used the apps to find underserved areas to serve before the app winner even got his first dollar. Then there is the whole "Bit off more than I could chew" effect as well.

We are going to see a lot more M&A and a lot more BK in the next 24 months. No shock and awe, just an industry that is chewing itself to pieces for short term gains and too much long term uncertainty. CFO's can only perform magic until they blink.

How Do You Make it Rain in the Cloud?

2011-10-10T16:12:31Z

Here at Microcorp's One-on-One event, I moderated a panel this morning about various cloud services with Level3 (CDN), Cbeyond (Virtual Servers), Intercall (Microsoft 365/Linc), EarthLink (Security), and PAETEC (Visual Messaging). It's an eclectic mix, but that should tell you that there are many ways to leverage this thing called CLOUD to make money.

The Cloud is really a value for IT services. It's about leveraging the technology and the technical skill set of another company in order to let the business focus on their own finctionality, instead of the tech that might help the business operate.

The move to the Cloud by carriers is due to the lack of margin growth in the primary business of access. It's moving up the OSI stack from Layer 1 (wireless, copper, fiber) to Layer 3 (Internet) to Layer 7 (Apps). As we have learned with the iPhone, people use apps. Apps drive traffic. So if you go after the apps and move them into a data center (into the Cloud!), then you make it possible for the business to have access to that data 24/7 from any where with many devices - laptops, smartphones, etc. That's the trend in the marketplace.

Just to simplify Cloud for you: email, anti-virus, websites (hosting), Salesforce, Amazon Web Services, Google Apps, Gmail, Hosted PBX, conferencing (GoToMeeting, Webex), Skype - are all examples of cloud applications.

The three things driving the cloud trend: ubiquious broadband, the economy, and the fast paced technology space. The economy means that companies have to do more with less (less people and less money). It means that there is cost cutting. Broadband is available in most places - DSL, cable modem, 3G, 4G, WiMax, LTE, satellite, wi-fi. This means you can get access to your data and apps (Gmail, Google Apps, Dropbox, whatever) from any where. Finally, the technology is changing so fast that by the time you install it, the tech is probably almost obsolete. Cloud apps means that you lessen CAPEX and upgrades (like with Microsoft software) are taken care of my the service provider.

There's revenue here. Either you be the one to have the conversation with your customers or someone else will. And they will get those commodity services like broadband, T1 and PRI after they get the cloud services.

VZW and the Open Spectrum

2011-06-07T18:03:07Z

In the 700 MHz FCC spectrum auction 73, Google 's involvement insured that the spectrum would be Open Access. ATT ducked out of that auction to buy 700 MHz spectrum from Aloha Networks instead. VZW won $9B worth of Googlized spectrum. That is, that the spectrum was supposed to be used for open access. Supposed to be.

So VZW's LTE utilizes that 700 MHz spectrum. Having Android disable tethering is not an Open Access attribute, according to Free Press who filed a complaint with the FCC against Verizon. "Licensees of the C Block of the upper 700 MHz block, over which Verizon runs its LTE network, may not “deny, limit, or restrict” the ability of their customers to use the applications or devices of the customers’ choosing." This is like a Carterphone moment for the FCC. We'll see how it plays out. [BTW, it's been over 40 years since the Carterphone decision.]

In other cellular news, Ma Bell has to pay back $1 Billion "as part of a class-action settlement stemming from allegations that the carrier improperly levied taxes against customers on mobile Internet access fees, according to attorneys for the plaintiffs in the case."

In cellular rumor, BusinessInsider is saying that Microsoft is buying Nokia's phone business for $19B.

And finally, Sprint lodged a formal complaint with the FCC against the AT&T/T-Mobile merger. Meanwhile, Sprint is trying to ink a deal with Lightsquared and clean up the Clearwire mess.

More Spectrum, More Spectrum

2011-03-22T15:17:11Z

At CTIA today for the CEO Panel, AllThingsD quipped, "A lot of carbon dioxide being expended at CTIA talking about how spectrum is the industry’s oxygen." Just so you know, they HAVE spectrum. They horde spectrum. What they don't do is deploy it until they feel like it.

CTIA wants another auction. The FCC's "Genachowski touts benefits of voluntary incentive auction where broadcasters and others get a piece of the revenue generated by auctioning off their spectrum." Have they all forgotten that the radio spectrum is a public asset? That it isn't owned but leased out for use for very specific reasons, like a public radio station, a TV station or cellular data?

More regulations have to come with a $30B auction of the last of the spectrum. More good would come from making some of it unlicensed or even quasi-licensed like 3650 MHz.

You look at the spectrum out there right now - like T-Mobile's AWS, VZW's 700 MHz, Aloha Networks' 700 MHz that Ma Bell bought, Qualcomm's 700 MHz that Ma Bell wants, Clearwire's 2.5 GHz, and LightSquared owns 70 MHz of spectrum in the 1.x GHz range. "However, only 13MHz of the spectrum is dedicated for terrestrial services. However, as a part of an agreement with the FCC, LightSquared can use all of its spectrum for LTE services, if the devices employed can also connect to the satellite network. Harbinger also insisted on a provision governing access. The FCC requires SkyTerra to gain approval if it wishes to lease more than 25% of its spectrum to Verizon or AT&T," according to Instat. That's a lot of spectrum out there before you even get to White Spaces. And let's remember something significant: Much of this spectrum is NOT deployed.

The Big 3 CEO's sitting on the CTIA dias with Julius asking for more spectrum is like the fat prep school boys letting their ice cream cones melt over their hands while crying for more ice cream.

Here's a Wireless ISP's view of the Airwaves.