Recently in wireless Category

There are a bunch of debates raging over the telecommunications infrastructure. 

Congress has looked at Open Access bills for cellular networks. By this we mean that a consumer can use any available handset or device on any cell network. This is kind of the Carterphone concept for cellular.

The 700 MHz auction had open access provisions built right in, so VZW's 4G/LTE network will need to incorporate Open Access.

Spectrum is a finite resource. TV, radio, public safety and the cell companies all share access to various licensed spectrums. Other companies, like oil companies to communicate with rigs and ships, have purchased spectrum licenses. There is also the unlicensed bands like 900 MHz, 2.4 GHz, and 3650 MHz that are shared by any and all. We are seeing in the 2.4 GHz band that too much usage causes crowding and in some cases makes the spectrum useless. (Your little blue Linksys wireless AP's use 2.4 GHz, as does quite a few cordless phones and other consumer products). As more and more products and consumers go cordless and wireless, this resource will be used up. It must be allocated better. 

(An aside: Open Access has one advantage: less handsets in the landfill.)

Net Neutrality is based on network management. Both cable and DSL have bottleneck issues in your community. To manage those issues, the service provider uses tools, hardware and software, to prioritize traffic. This same set of tools can be used to degrade Vonage while prioritizing the ISP's VoIP service offering. These same tools can be used for DPI (deep packet inspection) to read every unencrypted packet that passes through the box. This same tool can be used to police the network (or Internet) of child porn, illegal downloads, and the like. Do we really want that kind of Big Brother action? 

At the heart of the NN debate is the fact that a few ISP's have degraded VoIP packets and legitimate P2P (peer-to-peer file-sharing) traffic. As networks go all IP, there needs to be a set of guidelines for peering traffic and network management. I don't think the FCC or Congress should be the ones making these rules. Any rules they come up with will be a compromise that will ultimately solve nothing, but create new problems.

The final debate in DC is about Fair Competitive Access to the telco infrastructure. After court rulings and Forbearance petitions in 2004-06, CLEC's and ISP's have been losing ground in the ability to get access to telco network elements to provide service to customers at a fair and competitive price. In so many cases, the CLEC "wholesale" rate is higher than retail. Make sense? Docket 05-25 at the FCC is the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Special Access Rates. 

While they may seem similar in that they are all about access to the network, they all are about different aspects of the network access. In the end, Open Access Rules and Net Neutrality guideleines will define how we use the networks for innovation, collaboration and communication.

American Tower is buying 196 Towers from Cincinnati Bell (CellNews)-- Outsourcing of Network Infrastructure continues.

Mobile Backhaul Equipment Market to Jump 60% in 2009 to $5.9 Billion (CellNews) Qwest and cable companies are all over fiber backhaul from cell towers. More smartphones means more bandwidth needed from each cell site - and NxT1 won't cut it. Using wireless backhaul won't either as the big boys don't want to use Unlicensed nor use up their precious paid-for spectrum on backhaul.

Pay As You Go Mobile Broadband Overtakes Contract Deals, according to CellNews. Boost Mobile all-you-can-eat-text-web-talk-for-$50 is not good for T-Mobile or VZW. Ma Bell still leaning heavily on iPhone. When exclusivity ends, they will be in big trouble if they don't fix things now - and suing VZW over ads isn't going to help fix what ails you, especially when you lose the first court battle. No injunction granted, because "ATT doesn't argue that the maps are incorrect in terms of showing its 3G coverage. But it says that Verizon is misleading customers by implying that they cannot use their phones or access the mobile Web when they aren't in 3G coverage areas. The reality is that customers can make phone calls and access the Internet from their phones using the company's slower EDGE or GPR networks."

Key investor is opposed to Sprint purchasing the thorn in the side affiliate, iPCS.

Unions push to organize T-Mobile USA employees, according to FierceWireless. That's funny because the old SNET company union workers can't get Ma Bell execs to talk to them. And this isn't a time in American economic history to be a worker looking to unionize. You should be helping your company stay afloat so you still have a job -- and your pensions aren't wiped out when your former company files Bankruptcy. Foolish greed.

I'm in Atlanta speaking at the Microcorp One-on-One event about Trends in 2010. The three trends that I see for agents are the following: Applications, Quality of Service (QOS), and Mobile Broadband (MBB). But they are kind of inter-dependent. Ubiquious broadband leads to innovative uses and applications. Applications like on smartphones lead to a greater need for mobile broadband networks.

Mobile Broadband is growing. Smartphones are replacing cellular handsets. Social networks are moving to mobile devices so people can Facebook and Tweet. RIM's Blackberry brought us mobile email, but it is a standard on many phones now. Netbooks and data cards are presenting the US cellular companies with some fits. They like the additional revenue, but have to keep dropping billions on the network backhaul and capacity upgrades. (And another $45B+ on the upgrade to LTE/4G).

All this means that there are new uses for the mobile broadband, like the Kindle. Sprint's Wispernet allows Amazon to instantly download books, magazines, newspapers and blogs to Kindle devices. Machine-to-machine devices can utilize the cellular data network to provide connectivity for ATM machines, security cameras, and a host of other devices that need to communicate with a NOC or remote server.

All of this is a cycle of applications driving network usage. Ubiquious broadband driving more apps. It's one reason that the FCC needs to maintain open network and Net Neutrality guidelines in place.

Applications - like email, databases, office suites, CRM - are creating a demand for managed services, such as an outsourced IT department. In addition, businesses are looking at the Cloud - moving applications to a data center for redundancy, security, and availability - as a way to save money and stop worrying about the IT department. With applications being delivered in the Cloud or by way of SAAS or even Virtualization, Agents have a chance to offer more than just Internet Access or WAN circuits, like private line. Agents can sell Layer 2 to Layer 7 - pipe to apps. It's a way to get deeper into accounts. It's a way to offer a complete solution. It's a way to deliver on the label of Trusted Advisor.

Applications are driving sales. Voice and email are just the primary apps. Business critical data is also driving mobile broadband. Ubiquious broadband is allowing for innovative ways of accessing data. The problem becomes reliable access to the data. That's where Quality of Service comes in. QOS on the WAN is what is needed to access data reliably and quickly. The MPLS trigger is the Class of Service reliability and prioritization of data over the network. This is paramount for businesses running a truly converged network with video, database, VoIP, email and Internet riding the same pipes. WAN Optimization is selling due to the cost containment and the performance enhancement. Big bang for the buck.

So the agents can sell mobile broadband, applications via Virtualization or SAAS, and add QOS to the WAN to provide reliable access to these business critical data.

Master Agency Microcorp is holding its One-on-One Event for its agents in Atlanta next week. I will be moderating a session on Trends for 2010 & Beyond, where we will discuss the next series of services that Agents can create revenue streams from. 

You've heard the noise about Conferencing coming from the likes of Premiere and Inter-Call. With the Green movement and the economic realities of cutting down travel expenditures, video and web conferencing are selling. It's just a software application that can be sold as a service - (notice I mentioned app and SAAS there?). It creates a revenue stream for an Agent by cross-selling to your existing client base.

You can also offer Hosted Microsoft Exchange email and the Office Suite software. Alternatives to that would be Google Apps and now IBM LotusLive iNotes.

Managed Services is the new buzz word around the Industry. Outsourcing IT (computer support, server maintenance, software updating and backup) is a growing market segment as small businesses find it harder to keep IT staff in place (and trained). Also, IT is becoming mission critical -- well, access to data, email, voicemail is becoming business critical.

The panel will be with InContact, Sprint and New Edge Networks. We will be discussing 4G and M2M as a growth sector. Private Networking and QOS on the WAN for today's real-time traffic. And finally how apps like UC and Contact Center software can provide agents a renewed high margin business.

Please note I didn't mention Cloud or Virtualization.

Over at CNN, there's an article about the iPhone hurting AT&T's brand.

While a recent survey by the consulting firm CFI Group found that iPhone users are the most loyal smartphone users, with 90 percent saying they'd recommend the device to a friend, half of all iPhone owners surveyed said they would like to jump ship to another provider if given the chance.

The sarcastic part of me is that AT&T already has a reputation problem from the way they do business. The Say No First Attitude is more like the insurance industry than the telecom field. Everyone from Agents to Customers feel the pinch from AT&T. So big deal that iPhone users don't like the network -- as long as they keep paying the bill.

However, when exclusivity ends with iPhone, AT&T may lose as many subscribers as Sprint. (Makes me nauseous to think that VZW would win most of those subs).

Some interesting facts from the article:

During that year [2008], AT&T's annual report indicates it spent $20.1 billion on capital expenditures for its wireless and wireline networks. Still, $17 billion is nothing to sneeze at. .... Some of these improvements include deploying 850 MHz technology across AT&T's 3G markets to improve in-building coverage, adding nearly 2,000 new cell sites to improve overall coverage, and increasing capacity in thousands of cell sites with more backhaul infrastructure.

That's not all going to wireless though. AT&T reminds the media that iPhone users are the heaviest network users - it would tax any network. Maybe, but you spent $1B to re-brand everything as AT&T and now that brand is tarnished.

I look at the new IP Phones and wonder: Are they morphing into a cell phone?

I like cordless handsets, mainly because I walk when I am talking. It helps me think and it sounds better for the caller. And I use a corded headset.

So when I look at the newest DECT phones like Aastra 600D series, Cisco WIP310, and others, they are so small, lightweight and are starting to resemble a cell phone. Right? A perfect example is the UniData Wi-Fi phones. These look just like a cell handset and come with video capabilities and cameras. No other handset has that yet.

Broadsoft extended Web 2.0 services to the mobile device. So has Mitel. Blackberry wants to mobilize your PBX - to make your cell phone an extension on the office PBX system. So does Mitel. So does Broadsoft. Oh, and so do the cell carriers because they want you to spend those minutes.

It looks like only difference between your IP phone and your cell phone will be signaling technology (Wi-Fi, CDMA, GSM, DECT). When we get a phone with half those chips in there, will the desktop phone become obsolete? Are we really that mobile? I sit at my desk at least 40 hours per week when I am in town. I can't see getting rid of my cell phone even with those home phone systems that jack into your cell phone. For me the call quality on the cell is inferior to either my VoIP line (most times) and my POTS line.

I think that battery life will always save the desktop phone. I wish it could do more: like updates and texts or IM or something. After all the desktop IP phone by Polycom or Aastra (the ones I am familiar with) are mini-computers. Broadsoft and Aastra have XML marketplaces for apps for them, but I have not heard (or seen) anyone taking advantage yet. (Anyone?)

As more minutes move away from the PSTN to VoIP Networks and Cellular systems, what happens to the PSTN? Where's the Tipping Point when the telcos can't or won't maintain it anymore?

After dumping New England on Fairpoint and cashing in on that garage sale, Verizon bought Alltel. Now it is dumping more rural lines on Frontier. All of this is just Verizon's way of shoring up its stock report. Without the kickers from the Fairpoint transaction and the spurt from Alltel, my bet is that the company would be showing a loss. CNET reports that its profits are down.

It's pouring money into M&A, FiOS, LTE, 3G, International backbone, and Advertising. Especially Advertising. I get something everyday from Verizon. Even at 50 cents per mailer, that's almost $10 per month on one prospect. 

It's about to dump big bucks in a conversion to LTE for its VZW network to keep saying its the best network. But that is after it integrates the Alltel network. Oh, and after it settles things with the rural cellular companies who are tired of VZW squeezing them. Remember that they just built the 3G network, so that debt isn't paid up yet. And cell phone subsidies are increasing to compete with the fact that folks want the iPhone or the Android. 

The FiOS build out is costly. I read that VZ claims it is under $900 per home passed. No one else in the industry has a number that low. Most are closer to $2000 per home passed. Customer take rate is about 21-22%. How many of those are just upgraded DSL subs? 2.5M FiOS TV subs now - some from cable but some from DISH Network, I'll bet. (Still no mention of the 500K voice lines Bright House took from VZ in greater Tampa Bay).

Lots of M&A activity to hide the fact that its growth is stalled and that it has to be taking on huge debt from Alltel, upgrades and Customer Acquisition.

Expanding network into Charlotte and Raleigh was just the start of expansion for  XO in 2009.  

XO's been adding even more services to its too-big catalog lately. (I say too big because even XO sales folks don't remember half of what they sell or can brief prospects on more than a handful). The catalog is RBOC sized including Hosting, wireless, IP, VoIP, PBX, SIP trunks, transport, collocation, TDM, Ethernet, and Managed Services.

Oh, I forgot wavelength services too.  And in a deal with Pacific Crossing, XO extends its reach to the Asia.

XO is back to pushing Fixed Wireless that it relegated to the old Nextlink brand.  It was mentioned recently when XO announced that it was adding new speeds to its Hatteras based mid-band Ethernet service.

XO is also pushing Concentric, its hosting brand, with the announcement of a Managed Backup Service.  According to Phone+ magazine, the service will be sold via a new VAR Channel Program (as well as current XO Business Partners).

Beyond transport, XO added Hosted IVR, labeled as an Inbound Teleservice, and XO Connect, which is a mass notification service. I guess, they are taking lessons from Ifbyphone to use SIP to do more than make cheap calls.

And finally XO has an agreement to extend VoIP to 2800 LSO's in the US. That deal apparently also includes transport and transit to 2800 rate centers.

That's a lot of expansion once the heavy debt was lifted.

I'm watching two conversational threads right now. One about Google Wave, which as Andy Abramson writes:

I'll refer to Wave as transformational, as its not revolutionary, but moves work flow from asymmetrical to both symmetrical and asymmetrical universes simultaneously, changing how you work both in real time and offline time.

Google has built a "communications" object that is full of capabilities that creates hybrid communications that are going to be a blend of games, email, IM, blogging, wikis, and a lot more.

I haven't seen the Wave demo (see a review here), but the reactions have been nothing short of WOW, even more than when Google Voice launched. Google Voice probably made a few ITSP's cry, because it delivers features that they don't, but surprisingly people want. The me-too mentality of telco has slipped into the VoIP World. Except for a few mash-ups, VoIP has remained ho-hum to me for the last two years. The only surprising thing was how few VoIP Providers could get it right and deliver reliable service. And how few could attract more than 10,000 lines.

That takes us to the second thread about the Zer01 mobile service, which is VOX VoIP over the GSM data network of its partners (AT&T and T-Mobile). It is an unlimited plan for $70. No voice calls go out the GSM network, all tunnel back to go out VOX's network via a VPN, which should be taxing on the GSM system. Why? Because cellular calls are moved from tower to tower as you travel, but a VPN call would need to stay at the original tower or drop - then tunnel to each new tower.  This may not be taxing if most calls are off the one tower and don't move, which is possible. And if many UTGI customers are not dense in any area.

The UTGI contract with VOX calls for "a renewable "take-or-pay" obligation for at least 50,000 lines in the first year of service". (IP Business)  "Ben Piilani, UTGI CEO, stated, "With over 100 distributors already committed to over 500,000 lines in the first year, we could easily exceed one million lines in year one, and we are targeting five million lines by the end of the second year."

I question that number because Nextel's Boost is offered Unlimited for $50, all the big guys have Unlimited for $100 - data and voice. Virgin Mobile USA is adopting a $50 plan as well. Two drivers seem to be Price and Handsets. Nice handsets like Blackberries and iPhones come with a $100+ monthly price tag, but you can get service for $50 per month with a lesser phone.

I'll tell you where I see the problem: it's pitched on price ($70 unlimited) and there are cheaper plans. It's pitched as cheap International calling, where there are numerous competitors - i2, Skype, Fring, TruPhone, etc. And how big is the market to call International from your cell phone?

One thing UTGI probably doesn't understand is that having an ILEC as a vendor means your largest competitor is also your vendor. And he doesn't play nice. Most MVNO companies including marketing giants like Disney/ESPN have closed because competing against a cellco is difficult. (Wait until UTGI sees the billing error machine at work!)

MetroPCS has 6M lines. It took them a long time to get there. MetroPCS "ARPU fell from USD 42.51 to USD 40.40", significantly lower than $70. It's churn rate is 5%. I would love to know its Customer Acquisition cost and its Advertising budget.

You can get details of the UTGI/VOX Zer01 plan here. (Pervasip's SEC filing on it is here.) My skepticism comes from: can VOX's proprietary system and its company (which laid most folks off recently) scale to accommodate the UTGI plan IF UTGI can actually sell that many lines, which seems doubtful under the current flat market of cellular that is seeing higher churn, lower ARPU, higher customer acquisition costs, higher handset subsidy rates - it's a zero sum game of take-away. 

Finally, while Google's Voice and Wave services are Wow-ing people, UTGI isn't doing anything magical to the consumer experience. It's another arbitrage game. What's the reason a consumer would care how the call is carried? Consumers care about the handset and what they can do with it - text, take pictures, surf the web, and lately the apps.

I was told that when you hear rumors about a merger, it's just bankers raising a balloon to see about interest. It's there way of testing the waters so they can "earn" some money with a little M&A action.  (You wonder why banking is in trouble? What do they actually produce? Nothing. Very little value comes from companies merging. It only results in lay-offs, market share gains, and bankers pocketing millions).

This week - besides the swine flu hysteria - was the rumor that VZW would get an Apple device to sell.  AT&T and T-Mobile run on GSM like most of Europe; VZW and Sprint run on CDMA, like nowhere else.  It would be difficult to roll out one CDMA model for VZW. Anyway.... who benefits from these rumors? Well, everyone. According to John Gruber, Apple and VZW definitely benefited from the rumors. AT&T just gets added pressure to secure exclusivity on the iPhone for more than one more year. [More here]. Rumors: someone always benefits.