Even Fairport, acquired by RLEC Consolidated, is upgrading its network for higher speeds. Some of this is due to the fact that cable is winning the broadband war. Some of it is powered by USF Reform whereby broadband is the metric for dollars. Add in the Connect America Funds (CAF) and other federal and state incentives for broadband and middle mile fiber deployment. AT&T, Verizon, Windstream and CenturyLink have all talked about upgrading the broadband infrastructure. (BTW, this flies in the face of the new FCC Chairman's claims that investment went down after Title II.) It comes down to revenue - and DSL was not cutting it.
Fiber deployment is tough (just ask Google). Many providers use a mix of technologies. TPX (formerly known as TelePacific), Windstream, XO and Google Fiber use fixed wireless for broadband. Thousands of WISPs in America have been utilizing wireless to deliver broadband for years. The bigger guys are now jumping on the bandwagon. To be fair, the technology is not only better, but cheaper.
This from DSL Prime: (from Sail Internet in Fremont California) "George Ginis used Mimosa's super Wi-Fi to connect a customer a customer with 435.74 down, 331.83 up, and 4 ms ping. 5 GHz Mimosa is designed like a mmWave network but a heck of a lot cheaper than 28 GHz. Interesting alternative."
DSL Prime has an ad from Sckipio about Virtual fiber. "Extend your fiber with 100-300 meters of single-port G.fast. It can save expensive trenching for cell towers, small cells, basement fiber, commercial customers and others. A very thin management layer allows operators to keep their existing GPON management layer. Sckipio makes it effortless to add G.fast to any GPON network." G.fast uses copper like VDSL2. We'll see if it gets adopted in the US like it is in Europe.
Also on the copper side is trials by ASSIA for Terabit DSL. See here. Companies are at work to extend the life of wireline broadband to satisfy the consumer appetite for downloading videos. On the business side, the same technologies will be used to feed the business appetite for cloud apps - fixed wireless, 4G/LTE-A/5G, DSL/T1, cable modem and fiber. SD-WAN will be layered on top for metrics, failover/resilience and more. Interesting times.
]]>"The U.S. (and the world) is in the midst of a sea change in how we spend our leisure time. Young people are less inclined to indulge in America's favorite pastime: zoning out in front of the TV. On average, people ages 18 to 24 spend half as much time watching live and recorded television as 35-to-49-year-old Americans, according to Nielsen...... Young people are definitely watching video, but it's more likely something from YouTube or a friend's Snapchat story on their phone than the episode of "Grey's Anatomy" their parents are watching on the living room TV."
"All told, traditional cable, satellite and telco pay-TV services (not counting OTT offerings) lost a net of about 1.64 million video subscribers last year as compared to a loss of some 980,000 in 2015." [telecomp]
Telco TV was too late to the party. It cost the telcos billions of CAPEX dollars to find out that cord cutting was real and OTT video - Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, Amazon Prime, Sling TV -was going to be the winner.
The economics look upside down. Bear with me here. Right now the cable operators are winning the war for both broadband and voice. In many areas, cable is now the incumbent voice provider.
With triple-play the operator sees ARPU of about $161. If the customer only buys broadband - which is happening more and more - the ARPU drops to $65. Never mind the tax implications for federal, state ad local government (they are screwed either way), just consider what this does for revenue numbers.
The ripple effects are already being seen. ESPN, the Disney owned sports channel, is in a tail spin with a loss of about $500M in revenue per year from cord cutters. Cable channels are either being closed by the content owners or re-named and re-tooled. There aren't 500 useless channels; there are 1M with all of the streams and social media. This will be a real problem for content creators, actors, writers and advertisers.
Windstream, CenturyLink and other RLECs (Frontier, Fairpoint, TDS, et al) have been working hard to get the percentage of revenue from residential/consumers from the average of 75% to a 50/50 mix with business services. Windstream bought EarthLink; CenturyLink bought Level3. TDS bought managed IT firms and data centers. Fairpoint sold itself to Consolidated Comms. Frontier keeps buying states from Verizon and AT&T; consequently, their mix is still heavily consumer.
Everyone has a revenue problem. Pricing pressure has squeezed every operator. It will get worse. Millennials don't want to pay a cable company. They have a huge cellular bill and student loans totaling $1 Trillion. Couple that with stagnant wages and a bleak jobs future that is getting darker with all the investment in robotics and AI, the economic outlook doesn't look bright. As I have asked before: if wages are stagnant, how does someone continue to keep the economy spinning with buying?
I hope, unlike cord cutting, that operators don't have their head in the sand on this issue.
With 5G trials rolling out, will the next generation - who aren't buying homes and aren't buying cars - buy wireline broadband? A few analysts say Unlikely. I already know several twenty-somethings and thirty-somethings that do NOT have terrestrial / wireline broadband. It is all smartphone and hotspot at home.
What does that do to the economics of the network? Business revenue will become even more important. And as revenues decrease, price increases will result, which will mean less subscribers.
Planet Networks believes that rural and under-served areas will still be on wireline because 4G and 5G will not get there any time soon. That may be true - so RLECs will be happy - but the majority (80%) of the population lives in urban areas.
In other nations, cellular (including fixed cellular) are sometimes the only available network. It is cheaper to put up towers and radios than to dig up streets and sidewalks to lay fiber.
]]>Just as they are getting acquired by Windstream, EarthLink finally gets its stuff together. ELNK announced that in six months they have deployed SD-WAN functionality to about 1700 offices for 41 customers. That is pretty impressive but the technology (SD-WAN) is best deployed at small offices, rural and branch locations. It is where the tech gets the best ROI.
FYI... SD-WAN, like WebRTC, is a technology NOT a product. Stop trying to sell the tech!!!
IPO's are on the horizon. Fuze got another bag of VC cash and hired a CEO to take them to the public land. I hear that Star2Sar is thinking the same thing.
Speaking of cashing out, my client, Hunt Telecom in Louisiana, got acquired by CS&L aka Uniti Fiber. Congrats to Jason, Kevin, Robert and Troy!!!
LUMOS Networks got grabbed by investment firm EQT for $950 million cash.
One weird acquisition: Atlassian spent $425 million on task management provider, Trello. Altassian owns Hipchat (a Slack competitor) and JIRA. It seems like a good combo.
A head scratcher: Fonality got bought by Netfortis. Asterisk and Genband.
ARRIS is buying Ruckus from Brocade because "Every carrier will need to be in wireless."
TelePacific is coming into 2017 with its acquisition of UC provider DSCI. They will be re-branding the new nationwide managed services provider at the Vegas CP show. Yesterday at a partner event, TelePacific CEO Dick Jalkut told the room that they had spent $500K on ITx and UCx demo centers around the country as well as building out a SOC (security operations center) in St. Louis. Any current TelePacific partner can visit the SOC. You might want to ask if they will pick up the airfare. TelePacific isn't giving up on network - it is what made them the regional giant that they are - but all bets for the future of the company lie with the strategic products - like security, managed IT, Office365 and a Broadsoft UCaaS offering - that DSCI strengthens with their own experience and products in those areas..
OTT UCaaS provider, Panterra, has inked another distribution deal; this time with VoIP Supply.
]]>Google Fiber stopped over-building fiber to the home (FTTH) to give fixed gigabit wireless a chance. This isn't even 5G. This is current non-millimeter tech.
AT&T is trying to get BPL (broadband over power lines) to work with Project AirGig. Will it work this time? The power infrastructure is still pretty old/antiquated, ut technology has gotten better.
API isn't talked about like that. Integrations are. UCaaS as a stand-alone platform is not that impactful to the employee work day. Integrated with CRM, email and other work day applications is. [All About API is at ITEXPO.]
Intelepeer just announced a platform that integrates with Cisco Spark. Hope they demo that at ITEXPO.
The IDEA Showcase is Thursday evening. I always get amped at startup events because there is great energy (hope, promise, excitement) that we kind of lack in telecom.
If you like startup stuff, the week of Feb. 13 is Startup Week! Techstars runs that globally.
Channel Vision Expo is collocated with ITEXPO again. This is the first channel partners event of the year. And it is collocated with MSP Expo. Should be interesting because more and more referrals and indirect sales are making a difference for cloud providers. 8x8 notes, "New monthly recurring revenue (MRR) sold to mid-market and enterprise customers and by channel sales teams accounted for 60% of total new MRR booked in the quarter."
I don't understand Blockchain. (There I said it!) Maybe I will get a chance to see what that is about on the show floor next week as well at the Blockchain Event.
WebRTC is still a thing, according to Andy Abramson. We'll see as Real Time Web Solutions has a section of the ITEXPO as well.
Most of the noise in my email is about HPBX/UCaaS, SD-WAN or IOT. The IOT Evolution is happening at the same time in Ft Lauderdale but it is a separate show. Verizon, Amazon, Gogo, Sprint, T-Mobile, Cisco (but no AT&T) are speaking and/or exhibiting.
That is a lot of tech to take in at one time, but it also in one place. Where can you get that much info/demo/prezo in one place?
Some interesting stats from 451 Research Group.
Overall IT Spending vs. Cloud Spending. Cloud spending remains strong, and the growth rate continues to outpace overall IT spending. A total of 44% of cloud users expect spending to increase over the next 90 days, while 4% expect a decrease. In comparison, 38% expect an increase in their overall IT spending vs. 11% expecting a decrease.
Cloud Adoption. SaaS (64%, up 1-pt) remains the most popular type of cloud computing in use, followed by Infrastructure as a Service (43%, up 4-pts) and On-Premises Private Cloud (34%, down 2-pts).
On-Premises Private Cloud Vendors. The most popular vendor for on-premises private cloud is VMware vCloud (65%), with Cisco (33%) and Microsoft Cloud OS (30%) a more distant second and third.
Key Attributes. The most important attributes for on-premises private cloud vendors are Platform Reliability (66%), followed by Value for Money/Cost (47%) and Technical Expertise (36%).
If you are in Ft Lauderdale next week, let's grab coffee! Or join us for dinner on 2/7 HERE.
]]>CenturyLink just sold off its data center business that was a combo of Qwest Cyber Centers and SAVVIS to a group of PE firms for $2.15B in cash and C-Link keeps a minority stake worth $150M in the new company. CL bought Savvis for $2.5B in 2011. Buy High; Sell Low. Bell-Head Mentality.
The PE coalition that bought the data centers also grabbed 4 cyber-security firms in order to announce this global security co, to be run by Manny Medina, former CEO of Terremark Worldwide.
Wired's headline says it best: The World's Telecoms Are Under Threat From All Sides.
Broadband, cellular and voice are all flat or declining markets.
IAAS and PAAS are ruled by Amazon, IBM and Google. Microsoft only got into the game recently and is doing better than all the telco's combined.
PE firms are buying up data centers as the world adjust to cloud computing, an app market and streaming TV and radio.
DDoS attacks are happening too often. So are Hacks. There are not enough fingers to fill all the holes in this dyke.
UCaaS is ruled by 8x8, Vonage Business, RingCentral, Fuze and a bunch of other providers that are not a telco. The PBX market may be shrinking but not fast enough for the other Hosted VoIP players. Cisco and Microsoft have chunks of the enterprise UCaaS business that the telcos don't.
Comcast Business is at $6B in annual revenue, which makes it a bigger CLEC than almost all that are left. WIND does $5B. EarthLink less than $1B. Birch and TelePacific are private. Level3 does $8B. CenturyLink does $17B (much of it ILEC revenue). Zayo is $2B.
Apps like Messenger, WhatsApp, Skype and Slack are replacing voice and SMS and even email. It is a topsy-turvy world. What's a telco to do? Well, merge! Get bigger because bigger solves nothing, but it makes money for top execs in the C-Suite and the Board room and on Wall Street.
Our economy spins on e-commerce and the Internet. When the companies that provide that Internet are too clunky to do it properly, what happens to our economy?
We went from a five nines voice network of reliability to cell phones and VoIP that quite frankly can't be more than three nines. Have you noticed the number of outages lately by telcos and cablecos?
There is a lot going on. There are many areas of opportunity, but the fall back from these guys is "more of the same", "do what I know" and "one more quarter!". None of these transactions is good for the industry, the economy or the consumers. They are stop gap, short term money movers. We are going to wake up shortly and realize that it is 1970 all over again. It makes the NSA job easier when there are few players, but what about the customers?
In the data center space, one master agency contacted me after the C-Link announcement to tell me that the folks at CenturyLink have no details about the sale. How can that be when Monroe has been trying to sell the DC division all year? Great planning, guys!
Whose customer is it? Will the agent still get paid? Will the customer see a price increase? Who is the billing entity? Who will the customer be paying? These are good questions that bothered some TELX customers when Digital Realty took over.
I keep seeing executives at master agencies say these deals are good. Do they say that in print because they have to?
Don't forget that you can leave a public comment with the FCC on any of these mergers. You can voice your opinion here. You will need a docket number but you can google it after the filings are in the system.
]]>Yet, this headline: "75% of internet use will be mobile in 2017 according to forecast" is kind of misleading. "Zenith Media has released a forecast which says that mobile devices will account for 75% of global internet traffic in 2017." Globally that would appear to be on point since much of the world is mobile only. Laptop and desktops aren't booming. I wonder if tablets are considered mobile or only if they are on a 4G plan.
Mobile internet use passes desktop for the first time, study finds. "The combined traffic from mobile and tablet devices tipped the balance at 51.2 percent, vs. 48.7 percent for desktop access, marking the first time this has happened since StatCounter began tracking stats for [global] Internet usage."
Keep in mind that Mobile vs Desktop has unique User Behaviors. Maybe 55/45 is as far as we go.
"For someone in telecom, the surface-level answer seems obvious. Millennials grew up in the age of cell phones and the Internet. They expect constant connection, mobility, and innovation. This explains why millennials are shaking up personal mobility and communications. But how is it that they're having such an impact on business communications and collaboration too?" from this report.
To continue, "Millennials are becoming the majority in the workforce. They're already the largest generation in the U.S. workforce and should be more than half of the global workforce by 2020. Millennials are becoming managers and leaders. Their preferences and early-adopter tendencies are shifting the conversation about tech in the workplace."
This might be why so much emphasis is on 5G and mobility, but let's not forget that the 2 RBOCs get about half their revenue from mobile, so they will hype up the biggest half of their business.
I don't know how 5G will trump fiber to the home, especially for Boomers and older. Reading tablets and phones with old eyes is a challenge, believe me.
As we have recently witnessed with IOT and hacked phones, security will be an issue. A big issue. No idea how we handle that going forward since people still use password for password (and 1234 for PINs).
If 5G is sold in buckets of data, how does that compete against cable wi-fi or an almost unlimited fiber pipe? "Wi-Fi Expected to Carry up to 60% of Mobile Data by 2019". Is that still mobile only?
Fiber has had set-backs, especially with Google Fiber, but it is also on the rise. More than 600 independent telcos have FTTH projects in the works. Getting pole access via telco, power and government entities is a maze of red tape. Yet cell towers are facing bigger hurdles as no one wants one in their neighborhood. Companies like Crown Castle and Zayo are building out small cells along their dark fiber routes to help 4G fill-in. No idea how dense it will need to be for 5G -- or the lasting effects of that many radios and wi-fi routers per block.
What about the economic effects of fiber? "The evidence is mounting: investment in fiber improves the economic performance of a community as well as its quality of life," said FTTH Council President and CEO Heather Burnett Gold. Would fixed 5G present the same economics?
We will see a certain amount of the market go wireless only. "The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control paints the picture of a growing mobile first society in the U.S., with nearly half (45.4%) of U.S. households wireless only," from the CDC's National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).
5G will change things for a few companies. Point to Point licensed wireless has made a few CLECs happy (and profitable). But it isn't for everyone or for every where.
]]>I wonder back to when AT&T tried to buy T-Mobile in 2011. That Obama Admin said NO. Despite the fact that AT&T was actively helping the NSA and other 3-letter agencies since before 2006, when Klein exposed Room 641A.
Then there is the other program that AT&T runs for the feds: "Hemisphere was used far beyond the war on drugs to include everything from investigations of homicide to Medicaid fraud." The Daily Beast explains how AT&T is spying on Americans for profit. (It would be weirder if they were just doing it for fun.)
Barry Eisler spells out how all this works via his "fictional" book God's Eye View.
AT&T has hedged its bets since the T-Monile No. It won approval for DirecTV. It plans to get a Yes from the DOJ - and has told the FCC that they don't have a say in this acquisition.
From NEXTDRAFT by Dave Pell: "Will the AT&T acquisition of TimeWarner get federal approval? Before you place your bet, consider this data provided by the NYT: "AT&T is the biggest donor to federal lawmakers and their causes among cable and cellular telecommunications companies, with its employees and political action committee sending money to 374 of the House's 435 members and 85 of the Senate's 100 members this election cycle."
Why are they buying TW? Well, to catch up to VZ and Comcast. And because all the pies are flat. AT&T had a bad quarter. VZ has a had a couple. They are laden with debt. Cellular which is half the revenue or more is being picked apart by T-Mobile and to a much smaller extent Sprint. Cable is eating the wireline broadband lunch*. Since all of the bets were on cellular, it is now a run to use fixed wireless (LTE or licensed) for broadband deployment which will increase ARPU for them -- and the bills to consumers.
Ma and Pa Bell have spent tens of billions on spectrum. They will use it to get out of terrestrial broadband and have everything be wireless. They will still have to figure out the T-Mobile problem as well as the cable wi-fi problem.
They want content to build a walled garden - like Facebook or AOL before them. When you own the content you can be king, just ask Comcast/NBCU or Disney.
The one thing that will kill off the telco is an economic depression. When the US experiences another economic slowdown - like say 3Q2017 - consumers will have a lot less money to spend. That means ARPU will not go - and subscriber counts will go down. When you have to eat, you skip HBO and cable TV.
The auto industry is already feeling this crunch. More leasing, less sales, more discounts, interest free loans. The cars last longer. And driverless cars are coming.
One reason for immigration is to actually increase the population of the US. Millennials aren't having kids - in many cases because student loan debt and poor salaries make a child too expensive, except by accident.
In the midst of this noise 2 things to note: (1) ABRY is selling Masergy to Berkshire Partners for about $1 Billion dollars. The reports say $900M; I was told it is more than that.
(2) Google Fiber is laying off. The CEO of Google Access, Craig Barratt, is also stepping down. Too few subscribers, too many hassles means they will try fixed wireless then probably call it a day. The Duopoly of cable and telco have successfully squashed competition. And for all the little guys cheering, it could be you next!
Please note that in the middle of all this, despite the skyrocketing analyst forecasts, cloud computing is not mentioned in this scenario. Why? It amounts to peanuts in revenue for the Duopoly. "Total SaaS/PaaS revenues of top 50 software companies globally are $22.4B. Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, SAP, Symantec, EMC, VMWare, HP, Salesforce and Intuit are the top ten software companies worldwide," according to Fortune and PWC. Unless they were to buy Salesforce to gain $5.5Billion in revenue, they have to go content. Microsoft bought LinkedIN for $26B!! And LI revenue isn't even $4B dollars.
IOT isn't even a billion dollars in revenue for VZW yet. So how do you move the revenue needle at the former Bells?
* Per telecompetitor, "The number of U.S. fixed broadband subscribers dropped by nearly 200,000 on a net basis in 2Q 2016, a decline of 0.2 percent, according to the latest market data from Point Topic."
]]>As I watch Hurricane Matthew, I wonder how many elderly and infirm still have POTS lines.
Verizon workers can now be fired if they fix copper phone lines for DSL, according to reports (and HERE). Verizon wants people to buy fixed wireless and 4G LTE-A in place of anything copper.
Certainly, VZ needed the money when it sold off VZT in Cali, Texas and Florida to Frontier. It had to pay the FCC $10B for spectrum - and that is what the sale price was to Frontier. But it wants out of the union labor based telco business. Buying Yahoo and AOL is a way to be a mobile and entertainment business. So copper has to go.
Windstream is using copper for G.Fast and VDSL2 in Project Excel as it beefs up broadband in its ILEC regions. Their ARPU is up, which is what they need - to pay for the upgrades AND to keep Wall Street happy AND to pay down debt.
AT&T uses copper for VDSL2 for the now retired brand U-Verse. "AT&T notes that "AT&T Fiber" may not actually mean fiber -- the telco noting that "under the AT&T Fiber umbrella brand we will use a variety of network technologies." That's likely to include wireless broadband, and should it ever come to market, AT&T's AirGig initiative which utilizes power lines." [DSLR]
After Google Fiber finished up its acquisition of WISP, WebPass, it started thinking about fixed wireless in places, instead of always actual fiber. Why? It got exhausted trying to jump through hoops with local governments for rights of way, pole attachments and more. Then there was the matter of the electric companies who also own poles. And finally dealing with the ILEC, who also owns poles, and who along with cable was suing to slow it down. Louisville being a good example.
Google Fiber reminds me a lot of Covad and the DLECs (and Earthlink's Muni wi-fi project): Good idea, poor execution, no telco experience, learning the lessons all CLECs know the hard way: ILECs will screw you to hamper competition. So will cable. Monopoly mentality just can't be changed.
It would be nice if the copper plant could be rolled up into a nationwide REIT (similar to CS&L), so that EoC, DSL and T1s could still be utilized by alternative carriers. It is the one thing that other CLECs find a use for XO: EoC. We'll see how it plays out.
]]>Sendhub,a business SMS provider that raised $10M, was acquired by Cameo Global, a global managed IT shop that does some contact center work.
Salesforce's leadership position in CRM now gets e-commerce with Demandware $2.8B acquisition
Broadsoft acquired Intellinote. [see here]
QTS buys DuPont Fabros Tech's New Jersey data center. This transaction comes after QTS transformed the Sun Times building in Chicago into a Tier 3 data center with 317K SF of capacity and 24MW of power.
Nest has unlimited budget, large workforce, and nothing. Oops!
The strike is over for Verizon and the lesson for the C-Suite: we can't get rid of wireline and unions fast enough.
ADTRAN launched hardware-as-a-service, a subscription service for MSPs to offer hardware to clients without leasing -- or another way to say that the leasing is built into a subscription service.
The Allied Fiber assets in the Southeast are up for auction under bankruptcy court approval. [source]
Rest assured, another prediction says the same thing that the other predictions said: VoIP Market Set for Steady Growth.
Want an example of Innovation? Zappos re-designs the shoe box!
CNBC list of Top 50 Disruptors
Mid-year channel trends HERE (site is hard to read with banners, pops, etc., but aren't they all getting that way?!)
Dean Bubley asks, "So uncomfortable Q for 5G designers & stds bodies: can critical-comms 5G really yield enough rev/profit to justify much expenditure/effort?" Follow up with this piece on 5G Vision. In short, is there enough revenue to build out yet another network (voice, 2G, 2.5G, 3G, 4G)?
Now softswitch vendors are service providers, competing with their customers and making it easier for new entrants into the already bloody ocean of Hosted VoIP. Broadsoft BroadCloud; GenBand Nuvia; Alianza Cloud Voice Platform; and Metaswitch MetaSphere Cloud Services [see here and here]
RETAIL: Sears, J C Penney - 30 Companies That Might Disappear In 2017 Based On Altman Z ]]>
If you can't see the flash based player above you have two options: listen on Soundcloud or download the mp3.
]]>Try something new.
Mary Meeker's annual Internet Trends report was released this week. She makes 2 big points:
One: There are now about 3 billion global internet users, but user growth is stalling at about 9% year-on-year. Smartphone sales are slowing, as is the yearly growth in the number of smartphone users, down to 21% from 31% last year. There will still be a market for bandwidth, but the it will not be lucrative. Revenues need to diversify from network.
Two: The rising Snapchat generation: Millennials communicate with text, but Generation Z prefers to communicate with images. There are now over 3 billion images shared daily between Snapchat, Facebook, Facebook Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp--all but one of which are owned by Facebook. 55% of Pinterest users use the site to find products they want to buy. Messaging apps are moving from simple text tools to communicate with friends to platforms for commerce. It will make selling simple VoIP solutions difficult, because smartphone and apps beat a Hosted VoIP solution. This will make it even harder on the remaining VoIP Providers.
Other things not from Meeker's report, but from the news.
Ransomware is a real problem for small and large businesses. Even NASA got hit - as did Congress recently. It is so bad, the FBI issued a warning. Selling security is going to be a big market. Data backup is a good solution for ransonware (if set-up properly). So is an anti-malware solution. How many businesses can afford to be down for 2 days?
Have you thought about selling data center? If they have an extensive WAN or MPLS network, a data center may be involved. QTS is turning the Sun Times building in Chicago into a large Tier 3 data center. It will have with 317K SF of capacity, 24MW of power and have fiber connectivity from 5 carriers. If you need help selling colocation, call the experts at COLOTRAQ.
If you want to stick with just bandwidth, how about managed WLAN or managed wi-fi solution for bigger buildings? Cablecos offer it. Some telcos. ADTRAN, Ruckus, Cisco. In a world of IOT and mobile devices, managing the wireless network is a pretty big problem to solve.
Don't want to sell mobile devices? How about mobile expense management? Stay tuned for a podcast on Monday from Wireless Watchdogs.
Have you thought about Microsoft - and riding the wave of hype around Office365, Sharepoint and Skype4B? If you have read any of my blogs, I mention Skype4B often. There is demand for it.
WAN Monitoring is getting louder. Master Agents have added circuit monitoring. AireSpring offers it under the AireNMS service mark. Most VARs and MSPs offer RMM (remote monitoring and management) of desktops, laptops and servers. This is similar.
Colocation, Backup, Security, Monitoring, WLAN and mobile expense management are all items ancillary to what you are selling now. You would be doing a disservice to yourself and your customers by not mentioning them.
There will be a gulf of disapproval. (see diagram) I think that gulf is about 5 years old now. Time to get through the Dip, grab the bull by the horns and change.
]]>TCN and GlobalConnect merged. Never heard of either company. Cloud somethingor other.
PGi, a publicly traded conferencing provider, was acquired by a fund management company, Siris Capital Group, LLC, for $1B <-- billion. Revenue in 2014 was $567M. Wainhouse suggests that the CITRIX spin-off of Grasshopper+Citrix's GoTo+OpenVoice would be worth about $600M.
Data center is hot. Now the UC&C space is heating up. It could be because there are no clear winners or dominant players yet. Certainly, West and NTT are big but they don't dominate. Neither does Vonage or any other UC company. There is plenty of room to consolidate and work towards domination.
Netwolves, a managed services provider, was acquired by a Health IT firm. "Vasomedical, Inc. today announced the acquisition of all assets of NetWolves, LLC and affiliates on May 29, 2015." [pr] I missed this one. Netwolves' "Fiscal 2013 and 2014 revenues were approximately $28 million and $30 million, respectively, and adjusted operating income was approximately $1.2 million and $1.4 million, respectively. Vasomedical completed the acquisition of all NetWolves assets on May 29, 2015, including all proprietary technology and intellectual properties, service provider and customer contracts, licenses, etc., for $18 million in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities, virtually all of which are operations related." That is a 14x multiple on income!!!!
]]>"Today, nearly 40 percent of American households either do not have the option of purchasing a wired 10 Mbps connection or they must buy it from a single provider. Three out of four Americans do not have a choice of providers for broadband at 25 Mbps, the speed increasingly recognized as a baseline for broadband access."
The discussion revolves around - surprise - arbitrage! There would be investment IF there was enough money in last mile residential; if regulation was lighter; if, if, if.
Quite a few feel that the answer will be wireless. I don't think there is enough spectrum for that, but I could be wrong. And even if there is enough spectrum, metered pricing will crush every wallet.
That said, I think many people don't have a real good ground view of telecom. In many parts of America, there are a number of independent players (non-Duopoly) that are rolling out fiber to the home or fiber to the MDU (condo/apartment building/etc). Stealth in NYC; Socket in Missouri; Sonic in Cali; and Hunt Telecom in much of Louisiana where they are laying fiber to businesses and schools.
WISPs (wireless ISPs) who typically use fixed wireless gear to offer broadband have been transitioning to fiber in a number of rural communities, like Shelby Broadband is doing in KY. And they are doing that without government funds - all bootstrapped.
Another theme is that investment is down in broadband due to the Net Neutrality rules that are being argued in SCOTUS. *cough*cough*bullsh!t* Investment appears down for a number of reasons.
One reason is that the investment dollars of the ILEC/RLEC group are government funds from USF, CAF, RUS, NTIA right now.
Number 2: The cost to pass a home with fiber when FiOS started in 2004 was about $2700; now it can be as low as $700 depending on density, geography, topography. Also, the biggest spender in FTTH was VZ with FiOS, so investment has declined since they stopped spending the $24B. C Spire and Google aren't going to replace that kind of spending. However, CenturyLink's Giga announcement and Windstream's 100Mbps PR are shining some light.
Number 3: I have been in the room when execs at AT&T have said they have no answer for DOCSIS 3.0. Verizon did a co-marketing deal with the cablecos (as part of the SpectrumCo deal). That isn't competing!
How deflating do you think it was for ILECs when Comcast said it was doing 2Gbps?! That isn't about regulation. That is like being in a high school boys locker room and realizing that you have puny equipment muscles.
ILECs don't cross LATAs any more than cablecos do. Only WOW! and RCN overbuild. Wholesale agreements to get FiOS and U-Verse access have been ridiculously hard to acquire until just these past few months. APEX by AT&T opened up U-Verse infrastructure to wholesale partners. Verizon is a little stingier with FiOS probably due to their outsourcing wholesale to one person in a nursing home in Phoenix who only has phone access an hour a day. True story. Ask any VZ wholesale customer.
Until a vendor comes along like Hatteras did with G.SHDSL making it easy to deliver g.Fast to premises end to end, DOCSIS 3.0 will win. VDSL2 is just now becoming economical and stable. And the deployment costs for VDSL2 with fiber-to-the-node is less than FTTH. I think if you didn't see the industry from the ground level, you can make pronouncements all day long that are misleading or skewed.
We need the best broadband network in the world if we are going to compete globally. If not, no one will be able to pay their cell phone bill.
]]>Windstream is in battle at the FCC to get IP equivalent wholesale products from AT&T as TDM retires. It is not going well. (You would think all CLECs and Comptel would be roaring along with them.
A little more WIND news as residents of Alabama are taking Windstream to court over slow broadband speeds. Not shocking.
9-1-1 is falling apart in this country. No one notices until a huge outage. T-Mobile hit with $17.5 million FCC fine for 911 outages . Fines are great, but the FCC has to address the underlying problems with the 9-1-1 system, especially as we transition from TDM POTS calls to cellular, texts and VoIP. But, heck, the FCC hasn't fixed Rural Call Completion problems yet either.
So DISH bid on spectrum in the last FCC auction using a bunch of shell companies setup as "small biz" for credits and discounts. Well, the FCC caught on. FCC Poised to Reject Dish Partners' Spectrum Discounts Affiliates requested $3.3 billion in small-business discounts on $13.3 billion in winning bids.
So the FCC is approving the AT&T-DirecTV deal with some conditions. Will they actually follow up on these conditions? History says No. "12.5 million customer locations will have access to a competitive high-speed fiber connection. This additional build-out is about 10 times the size of AT&T's current fiber-to-the-premise deployment, increases the entire nation's residential fiber build by more than 40 percent, and more than triples the number of metropolitan areas AT&T has announced plans to serve." [forbes]
"The customer relationship management (CRM) market is mature, bloated and consolidation is going to continue for the foreseeable future. The upshot: Technology buyers need specialized CRM vendors, but they could wind up absorbed by a giant." So companies build their own systems. Why build from scratch when you can use stuff like tray.io, Idea2, IFTTT and the like?
74% of business buyers told Forrester they conduct more than half of their research online before making an offline purchase. [source]
]]>Considering my client has been waiting 2 months to port DIDs from an AT&T PRI to Birch POTS lines, no kidding AT&T is not a Phone Company any more! Plus I have other clients that AT&T is calling to tell them to get off the copper. Move to fiber. The company only has one T1 technician for large areas (covering 5-6 central offices).
"We don't view ourselves as a phone company anymore," said Ralph de la Vega, the company's longtime mobile chief who took on greater responsibilities beyond phones after a company reorganization. [source]
AT&T is focused on Latin America and other global expansion; TV (hence the DirecTV acquisition it is still waiting for); US cellular with MDM and IoT; and home automation. It is now doing what Sprint tried to do 6 years ago by leading the cellular ecosystem with applications, tracking, etc. Even Verizon is getting out of the phone business. It is selling its stakes in FL, CA and TX to Frontier.
Europe is trending with all-Wi-Fi-based voice and data service. The US has a few versions of this - like Republic Wireless, FreedomPop, and Cablevision. Cablevision owns Freewheel, a wi-fi only device "powered by cableco's wi-fi hotspots". Is there enough wi-fi coverage to supplant a cellular data plan? Not yet anyway.
Bill Miller is making the case that the desk phone is going away. This is Part 2. I made the case against that notion HERE.
"Are carriers - now branching out beyond circuits and voice into all manner of cloud services, vertical offerings and even professional services - bringing channel partners along on this ride?" Good question from CP. In some cases, YES. In some cases, a specialized service provider like West IP or InContact make a better case for a channel partner.
I don't know how well EarthLink's retail offerings are pulling in the channel, but the story is right. It just depends on how many channel partners are selling retail (and trust EarthLink).
How many Channel Partners are out there? Another good question. At one time, it was said that the telecom channel was 7,000 strong. Just agents is probably in the 3500 range. Then on the VAR side, what used to be estimated at between 42,000 and 65,000 has probably shrunk to about half of that on the high side - 32K. Many VARs are still in business but doing other things like programming, integration and other tech work. Just selling stuff was never what they liked to do. But we can fight over these numbers any time you want.
A collection of start-up pitch decks. Look at the difference between deck 1 and 2 for MatterMark. I am coaching at Startup Surge Tampa next Friday. This will come in handy.
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