The prevalence of game consoles, tablets, and smartphones will also increase the load placed on mobile networks, an amount of data reaching over 7,500 petabytes. The figure is due to the increasing prevalence of mobile devices, especially smartphones and tablets. Mobile broadband is also increasing penetration around the world, while wireline broadband seems to be slower to increase its use.

Mobile data from these devices will reach 56 percent, with 76 percent coming from users in North America and Western Europe.

"Consumers are also tethering their mobile devices with laptops and netbooks for data connectivity, using unlimited-bundled data plans providing them with the advantage of requiring no modem, new configurations or any other gadgets. With the introduction of 4G speeds, users are expected to increasingly take advantage of tethering in the future,” Nitin Bhas, writing for Juniper Research, said.

To deal with the increase of data on their networks, carriers must invest in small cells and wireless backhaul if they expect to be able to keep up with the demand the devices will place on their networks. Though 4G looks promising, it's still an expensive technology and suffers from constrained resources, hence the necessity for small cells.

Juniper Reseach reported on the increasing number of mobile devices earlier this year. Shipments of entry-level smartphones are expected to reach 185 million all over the world by 2015. A large part of the expected growth is the pricing of the hardware. Prices are also expected to drop dramatically as more people around the world are able to afford a smartphone.

“In 2010 operators like Vodafone and Orange kick-started the low-cost smartphone market with devices in the $150 range. Pricing of smartphones will come down to $80 by 2015,” Anthony Cox, an analyst for Juniper Research wrote in that report.

Source: Mobility Techzone

But there are signs of coming change. Executives at AT&T, for example, actually plan to manage new smart phone sales in 2012, in large part to manage the cost of the subsidies such devices require. AT&T and other firms probably also will try to create incentives for users to buy less-costly devices (which require smaller subsidies by the service providers).

Service providers will move deliberately, to avoid any sudden moves that produce major changes in consumer behavior. Verizon Wireless, for example, will add a $30 upgrade fee for existing users buying new smart phones, a step that might add about $1 billion in incremental new annual revenue.

Some service providers are talking about ending all device subsidies, moves that will be dangerous in markets where most new accounts and devices are sold with the subsidies in place. The decisions will have to handled carefully, given the important role smart phone accounts now play, and the higher revenue those customers represent.

Smart phone sales to new postpaid subscribers represent 48 percent of device sales, up from just 30 percent in 2010, according to a new survey by PwC of eight U.S. and Canadian service providers.

Existing customers upgrading to smart phones also represent 51 percent of total smart phone sales, up from 36 percent in the 2010 survey.

The number of total postpaid subscribers using smart phones was reported by the service providers as representing 37 percent of customers, up from 23 percent in the 2010 survey.

The percentage of prepaid subscribers using smart phones historically has lagged behind adoption rates of postpaid users (for a number of reasons) and was eight percent of prepaid users in the 2011 survey.

The average postpaid customer revenue was $56 per user, per month, as compared to $55 in the 2010 survey.

The average revenue per user for smart phone plans was reported as $83 per user, per month.

The study also shows prepaid average revenue per user of $20.89, which is down from the 2010 survey response of $21.39. For companies with revenue less than $5 billion, prepaid ARPU averaged $27.23, which is also less than the $30.19 average in the 2010 survey.

You immediately will see the problem: as prepaid customer counts grow, average revenue per user will drop significantly.

The PwC analysts argue that the results “are representative of a significant, ongoing paradigm shift for the North American wireless industry.”

Specifically, they argue, “as the industry continues to mature, prepaid and mobile broadband services represent increasingly-important revenue opportunities for operators.”

But there are challenges. In addition to the significantly-lower average revenue, smart phone subsidies are a growing issue. The average subsidy cost per handset upgrade reported by the responding companies was $70 for feature phones and $280 for smart phones.

As sales shift towards more costly smart phones, the financing of subsidies becomes a difficult and costly proposition.

Also, the ongoing subsidy of smart phones reduces their perceived value to the end user and can cause sticker shock when devices need to be replaced following damage or failure, PwC argues.

For this reason, some mobile operators have begun to experiment with higher price points, raising retail pricing from the popular $199 level to $249 or even $299 for some smart phones.

Prepaid plans, including prepaid plans with data service components, represent a significant and growing portion of revenue as consumers continue to trend towards less expensive, no-commitment wireless plans.

But there is a huge tension here. Postpaid service contracts continue to be a popular mechanism for attracting and retaining subscribers who do not wish to make large, up front investments in costly smartphones. Prepaid plans shift the full burden of device costs to the customer. But average revenue per user will fall.

On average, 29.2 percent of total service revenue was generated by prepaid plans as compared to 22.5 percent in the prior year survey for all responding companies.

While the percentage of total service revenue attributed to prepaid plans has been increasing, the average revenue per user slightly declined to $25 as compared to $26 in the 2010 survey.

Similarly, prepaid revenues from SMS text data significantly decreased as a percentage of total prepaid data revenue to 36 percent from 54 percent in the 2010 survey.

At some point, service providers will want to create new mobile data plans as well, to create incentives for users to add tablet devices, for example, to their existing accounts.

Family plans historically were important because they drove mobile services in the “teenager” market, the last remaining untapped demographic once adult adoption had nearly saturated. These days, family plans are a major contributor to retention.

On average, 46 percent of subscribers are on family plans in 2011 and in the 2010 survey compared with 48 percent in 2009, according to a new survey conducted by PwC.

While family plans can be a slight drag on average revenue per user, they are an effective means of deterring churn since they require the conversion of an entire set of devices and customers in order to effect a change.

“We also believe that family plans may also yield significant secondary benefits, particularly in terms of lower rates of bad debt and reduced per-user customer care costs,” PwC says in its report.

So far, fewer than 30 percent of responding companies include the use of wireless cards, wireless data dongles, or embedded devices such as tablets as part of postpaid family plans, but PwC thinks that will change.

As carriers begin to offer more incentives for multi-device data plans that resemble the existing voice and messaging buckets of service, PwC expects the percentage of users on family plans to increase in 2012.

About 44 percent of the survey respondents said average revenue per family plan subscriber ranged from $51 to $60. In the 2010 survey, 50 percent of respondents cited an average revenue range from $51 to $60 for family plan accounts.

That suggests overall family plan revenue is declining. But it is possible, perhaps even likely, that family data plans will reverse the trend, even as more “lighter users” are added to such family plans.

In general, family plans still appear to be an effective way to increase the length of subscriber relationships and reduce churn, as churn continues to trend down for family plan customers.

The PwC survey results reflect the participation of eight US companies, including three of the four largest wireless operators by revenue and subscriber base, as well as four major Canadian wireless companies, including the three largest.

Source: Carrier Evolution

Many findings from the report focus on the impact of the growth of smartphones and tablets, cloud-related services and video streaming. These devices and services are driving dramatic traffic surges and demanding increased network infrastructure investment.

TIA's President Grant Seiffert said, "The rapid advance of smart phones, cloud services and video is placing an enormous demand on the network. These devices and services are essential for consumers and have become critical for businesses. Companies that support both wired and wireless networks are expected to spend nearly 41 percent more in the next four years than in the previous four years. And this technology generates jobs across American industries."

Key facts include:

• Global Internet traffic will quadruple by 2015
• In five years, mobile broadband traffic will be 35 times current levels
• U.S. spending on wireless and wired network infrastructure will grow to $296 billion by 2015
• The Middle East/Africa region will have 10 percent growth in telecom spending through 2015, followed by Asia Pacific at 9.5 percent and Latin America at 7.5 percent
• Spending on U.S. IT-based cloud computing will be the fastest-growing category

Key facts related to this trend include:

• In 2013 consumers will spend $108 billion on wireless data and $91.5 billion on wireless voice
• In 2011 consumers spent $73.6 billion on wireless data and $102.3 billion on wireless voice
• In Q4 2010, there were 101 million mobile broadband-dependent smartphones sold—versus 92 million PCs

"Every year the Market Review & Forecast offers a sea of data that presents the most complete look at where the worldwide ICT industry has been, and where it is headed," said TIA President Grant Seiffert. "This year, the report identifies a clear, unmistakable theme: America's broadband networks are going to be under extraordinary pressure in the immediate future."

TIA's annual ICT Market Review & Forecast collects and analyzes a wide range of industry data, and looks at the economic, technology and public policy drivers behind the numbers. The report includes very specific data related to key industry segments, including wireless data, wireline data, landline equipment, conferencing services, wired internet access, network equipment and more. It also presents high level data related to global ICT industry spending, including key facts such as:

• Telecom spending in the United States will top $1.1 trillion in 2012
• International telecom spending will reach $3.6 trillion in 2012 (not including the U.S.)
• Combined telecom spending will top $4.7 trillion in 2012, and will surpass $5 trillion in 2013

IDC forecasts that end-user demand for worldwide wireline and mobile broadband traffic will increase from 9,665 petabytes per month in 2010 to 116,539 petabytes per month in 2015, or two orders of magnitude in just five years.

Web browsing, peer-to-peer file sharing, audio/video streaming, and a host of other applications are all driving bandwidth consumption.

"The enormous growth in end-user demand for both fixed and mobile broadband services is staggering," says Matt Davis, IDC director of Consumer and SMB Telecom Services.

Bandwidth usage strongly correlates with the availability of faster broadband speeds. Given access to faster speeds, users and application providers adjust by creating and consuming apps that use such speed.

High-definition video content will drive a new level of bandwidth demand, with more than 50 percent of video and audio streaming destined for a connected TV (either directly or indirectly), an iPad, or another mobile device or tablet.

The research company, in its quarterly Service Provider VoIP and IMS Equipment and Subscribers report attributed the 2 percent slide to poor performance in legacy trunk media gateway and softswitch sales.

Analyst Diane Myers said she expects the market to rebound in 2012.

"We'll see this trend shift starting this year as the high-growth market segments--including IMS core equipment and session border controllers--become collectively large enough to offset the ongoing declines of the legacy products."

For the year, Infonetics said the global VoIP and IMS equipment market continued its four-year decline with revenues of $2.6 billion, off 2.1 percent, despite a fourth quarter bounce over the preceding period of nearly 16 percent to $690 million. North America and EMEA saw the strongest fourth quarter, posting carrier VoIP and IMS sales growth of more than 20 percent each, while Latin America was the big standout for the full year, with a 34 percent increase in carrier VoIP and IMS equipment sales. VoIP activity, particularly in Brazil and Mexico, is seeing strong growth in the region.

Myers said 2012 should be a bounce-back year, forecasting strong IMS sales globally that will bring the market to $3.8 billion, a 46 percent increase. She expects the number of global IMS-based subscribers to grow from 177 million in 2011 to 610 million in 2016.

IMS network deployments at large service providers like AT&T, China Telecom, China Unicom, Deutsche Telekom and NTT, which are undergoing network transformation projects, cable operators like Comcast that are migrating to new networks and wireless operators like Verizon Wireless that are launching IMS for their LTE networks, are driving the market's growth.

Among the vendors posting notable growth in the VoIP and IMS market in 2011 were Huawei, Genband, Alcatel-Lucent, and Acme Packet, with Huawei ending 2011 on top of the overall carrier VoIP and IMS market, just ahead of Genband.

Source: Fierce Enterprise Communications

The number of mobile Internet connected devices will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations) in 2016. Cisco also anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times in the 2011 to 2016 period.

This mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate of 78 percent. Mobile cloud traffic will grow 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95 percent.

Cisco also forecasts that there will be More Mobile Connections: There will more than 10 billion mobile Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules, exceeding the world's projected population at that time of 7.3 billion.

Tablet traffic levels will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016, the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the forecast, generating about an exabyte a month of traffic.

Mobile video, which will comprise 71 percent of all mobile data traffic by 2016.

By 2016, there will be more than eight billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and nearly two billion machine-to-machine connections, such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making patient records more readily available.

In 2011, 11 percent, or 72 petabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic was offloaded from mobile networks to Wi-Fi networks.. By 2016, 22 percent, or 3.1 exabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.

Source: Carrier Evolution

According to research firm In-Stat (News - Alert), subscribers to mobile VoIP services will triple – active mobile VoIP subscriber rates will triple in 2011, growing from 9 million in 2010 to 29 million.

The key factor behind such a surge in demand for the technology is smartphone penetration, with numerous providers now offering services that give consumers access to mobile VoIP on some level.

“While VoIP is a well-defined market, mobile VoIP is still in its infancy, with most offerings only being developed over the past several years - and because it's in its nascent stage, there are significant opportunities for companies to develop the market,” explained Amy Cravens, senior analyst at In-Stat.

Cravens also said that there are a number of uncertainties that solutions providers must overcome, however this is typical of a new and booming market.

“As the addressable market increases with smartphone penetration a greater number of providers are introducing services, including a growing handful of mobile operators that are beginning to embrace, to some degree, mobile VoIP,” In-Stat said in a company statement.

Other key findings of the mobile VoIP research include the following:

• The primary distribution channel utilized by respondents to access mobile VoIP offerings is through the OS application store.
• The largest concentration of mobile VoIP users is in Western Europe.
• Revenues associated with mobile VoIP usage will increase to over $4 billion in 2015.
• LTE (News - Alert) operators are not likely to have a significant impact on the mobile VoIP market until 2013.

Source: TMCnet

Source: the PrepaidPress an article by Arlene Hauben

By some measures, service providers now make nearly as much money from mobile broadband services as they do from fixed broadband. Ofcom analysis

Over time, mobile broadband is likely to become even more important, if for no other reason than that mobile broadband is sold on a per-device, nearly a per-user basis, while fixed broadband is sold per household.

Granted, fixed mobile connections generate more revenue per line. But mobile units will outnumber fixed connections by such a margin that aggregate revenue will continue to shift in the direction of mobile services.

Source: Carrier Evolution

"Though traditionally deployed in fixed-line networks for residential and business VoIP service access (including trunking), the use of session border controllers for interconnection between service providers continues to expand as the world's voice networks increasingly go all-IP. Our latest survey confirms that two of the biggest growth areas for new SBC deployments over the next two years are fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) and wireless access," notes Diane Myers, directing analyst for VoIP and IMS at Infonetics Research.

SIP trunking is the #1 SBC application used by service providers and will continue to be through 2013, followed by interconnecting to other service providers and residential VoIP.

The two SBC features rated highest by service providers are session capacity/scalability and signaling denial-of-service (DoS) attacks and overload protection.

Ninety six per cent of the service providers named Acme Packet when asked to name the top two SBC vendors, and 26 per cent of all service providers answering this question named only one vendor, Acme Packet, adds the report.

Huawei has consistently been the #2 or #3 vendor in terms of carrier SBC market share, which corresponds with the 19 per cent of survey respondents who named them as their installed SBC vendor.

Genband is under evaluation for future SBC purchases by 19 per cent of the service providers surveyed, none of whom are their current customers, indicating they are in contention for new business, finds the report.  ©CIOL Bureau.

Following a 4.1 percent increase in 2010 over 2009, telecom service provider revenue will grow 7.6 percent in 2011, to $1.86 trillion. Infonetics revenue forecast.

Telecom carrier revenue is forecast by Infonetics to grow to $2.17 trillion in 2015, driven by mobile broadband. Keep in mind that those are global figures and that growth will vary from region to region.

Is it possible that U.S. service provider revenue could double in just the next five years? Insight Research Corp. thinks so. The firm reports that predicts that, between 2011 and 2016, North American carrier revenue will rise from $287 billion to $662 billion, representing 11 percent compound annual revenue growth. Global Telecom Service Provider Revenue Forecast.

That rapid growth, on a compound basis, would lead to a doubling of industry revenue in five years. That doesn't mean providers in every segment will benefit equally. But a forecast that large would have to assume that most of the growth would have to occur at the largest firms, which represent 80 percent of total industry revenue.

The smaller providers cannot reasonably contribute enough aggregate revenue to tip the needle at such a large scale, even with even-higher rates of growth than 11 percent, compounded.

Global carrier revenue is expected to achieve a nine percent compound annual growth rate from 2011 to 2016, growing to a total of $5.13 trillion, according to Insight Research Corp.

The forecast explicitly assumes that North American service providers successfully will grow new revenues at a rate fast enough to compensate for weakening voice revenues, for example.  See Insight Research findings here.   

Source: Carrier Evolution

• The number of mobile video calling users will exceed 130 million by 2016, spurred by the launch of mobile video calling by major players and technology improvements.
• Mobile VoIP and mobile video calling services will develop significantly faster in developed markets due to a correlation between 3G and 4G roll outs and the take up of mobile VoIP and mobile video calling.
• There is as yet no clear role for advertising within the mobile VoIP and mobile video calling business model, though this is beginning to come for VoIP on the desktop.

The mPublishing whitepaper is available to download from the Juniper website together with further details of the full report.

Source: VoIP Monitor

According to the report, revenue from SIP trunking services to businesses is expected to grow at a phenomenal 52 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011 to 2015. The number of seats for hosted business VoIP and unified communications services is on track to more than double between 2011 and 2015.

The report also says that the number of residential and SOHO subscribers to hosted VoIP services are expected to grow from 179 million in 2011 to 262 million worldwide by 2015.

IP Centrex and hosted unified communication service revenue grew 22 percent, while the number of seats grew 25 percent in the first half of 2011 when compared to the second half of 2010. The research firm attributes this growth primarily to the continued demand for cloud-based services.

Three leading players in global residential VoIP services market are NTT (News - Alert), Comcast, and France Télécom. They continue to add new VoIP subscribers in their respective regions.

"We've increased our short- and long-term forecasts for the voice over IP services market, as adoption in the residential, SOHO, and business segments continues unabated,” said Diane Myers, directing analyst for VoIP and IMS at Infonetics Research, in a statement.

While the residential segment continues to make up the majority of VoIP services revenue, the real growth is in the business segment, particularly SIP trunking services, hosted VoIP and unified communication services, Myers added.

“Following a healthy 2010, the overall VoIP services market is on track to grow another 17 percent in 2011," Myers added.

Recently, Visiongain (News - Alert) reported that the mobile VoIP market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6 percent over the next five years to reach $36 billion in revenues by 2016. The report predicted that by the end of 2011, there will be around 70 million mobile VoIP users.

Source: TMCnet

The survey, which looked at new 8x8 customers who subscribed to the company's VoIP service between May 1 and August 19, showed business customers most concerned about reducing costs, attracting new customers and hiring and affording new employees.

The amount of concern over reducing costs appeared to deepen over the summer, the company said.

More than half (55 percent) of respondents in August indicated they were "more concerned" about business expenses this year than last. By contrast, only 39 percent said they were more concerned in June.

"Managing and keeping up with business growth" was listed as a top concern by nearly one-third of the respondents.

About half of all respondents said they'd switched to 8x8 from their local phone company with the majority expressing concern about reducing expenses as their reason for making the switch. Another 25 percent switched to 8x8 from another VoIP provider.

"Clearly, the economy remains very challenging for small businesses, and they're realizing the need to scrutinize expenses and prepare for growth by making the right choices now," said 8x8 Chairman and CEO Bryan Martin. "We're obviously very pleased that so many of our customers seem confident their business will grow. That's not only good news for us as their communications provider, but also a refreshingly positive perspective on the future of the economy in general."

When asked what influenced their decision to implement 8x8 VoIP phone service in their business, some 62 percent of the new customers surveyed cited overall cost savings, 70 percent cited features, 43 percent cited portability and geographic flexibility and 37 percent cited the convenience of having 8x8 host and maintain the service.

The survey mirrors similar research from Citibank earlier this month that found the majority of small business owners believe they are poised to grow or are already in growth mode. Just less than half (49 percent) said they are "holding their own, but poised to grow when the climate is right" and 28 percent indicated they are already growing. The vast majority (90 percent), however, remain concerned about the economy, including the possibility of a double-dip recession. The results also show an increasing trend in small businesses feeling more prepared to withstand longer-term challenges.