The news as of the second cup of coffee this morning, and the music is John Coltrane's My Favorite Things album:
Let's call this one the Crystal Ball Edition of First Coffee, as we peer into the future:
The worldwide market for presence-based telecommunication services, including instant messaging and push-to-talk, is expected to exceed $16 billion in 2009, as an ever increasing number of cellular and wireline carriers provide customized services predicated upon the availability of their end-users.
According to a market research study from The Insight Research Corporation, presence-based telecommunication services such as IM and PTT are "wildly popular in Asian countries" - carrier revenue from presence-based services is nearly 25 percent greater in Asia than North America.
Insight Research's market analysis study, titled "Presence Based Services Market 2008-2013," notes that presence-based services are part of a worldwide push by carriers to create new IP-enabled services for consumers and business users.
The study predicts that consumers of mobile and fixed line telecommunications services are adopting presence-based services along with other IP-enabled services such as location based services, fixed-mobile convergence, file sharing, streaming, and video telephony.
"Presence-based services are all about saving time and effort, so both consumers and businesses see value in these applications," says Robert Rosenberg, president of Insight Research Corp. "These services are no longer being viewed as just teen toys. IM and PTT are also business tools, and we see this market continuing to grow."
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A report from Portio Research on mobile messaging suggests that SMS will continue to be the cash cow of mobile data revenues for some time to come.
Traffic volumes and revenues continue to confound predictions - not this one, though, of course - and are "expected to keep growing throughout the global economic downturn," according to the Portions. The study estimates the whole mobile messaging industry, worth $130 billion in 2008, will be worth $224 billion by 2013, 60 percent of non-voice service revenues.
The report, "Mobile Messaging Futures 2008 - 2013," asserts that "there is nothing likely to stop continued growth of mobile messaging in the short term, driven by a cocktail of ubiquitous SMS, media rich MMS, enterprise based mobile e-mail and youth-conscious mobile IM."
SMS remains king because there is no cheap, easy to use alternative that will work with all phones and across all networks, not to mention the fact the study mentions: "It is loved the world over." Indeed in the US market, where SMS was a comparative slow starter, use per subscriber per month is now almost double the European average.
Still, we're pikers compared to China, where average users send over 100 messages each month, and the Filipinos leave the rest of the world in the dust, churning out 755 messages per person each month.
Portio also predict a bright future for mobile e-mail even though Japan is the only market where consumer mobile e-mail has surpassed the use of SMS.