Futurist Predicts 2006 Tech Trends
David Smith, a futurist and technologist at Technology Futures Inc., today released a set of predictions for 2006:
TFI Provides Significant Technology Trends for 2006
Smith's predictions on VoIP will come as no surprise to users of TMCnet: "The impact of VoIP extends beyond the business users and will become common place in the new digital home. 2006 will see the first impact of mobile VoIP in connected devices."
Smith also includes predictions about the effects of broadband penetration, security and privacy, the digital home, the migration of PR and marketing to public networks, biotech, and globalization and outsourcing. All are interesting to read, although not what I would call mind-bending.
But Smith did include one area in his predictions which I thought was of particular interest, under the heading "The timeframe of the product life-cycle continues to decrease." Following are his comments on this trend, which have interesting implications for innovation:
"... by the time a product hits the market, its shelf life is half what it used to be. So, to remain competitive, science and research time will become more intensive and innovative earlier as product development time continues to compress at an unprecedented rate. Innovation and a future focus will be necessary to remain in the game. Technologies such as grid technology, mid-weight computer clients, and collaborative computing play large roles in making every device a server."
AB -- 12/29/05
Related Tags: predictions, smith, Smith, technology, product
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RE: Futurist Predicts 2006 Tech Trends
Jack Yan :
December 29, 2005 7:43 PM
I’m not too surprised by the compressed time-frames for the PLC—in the motoring industry, it is accepted that the “novelty” of an automobile is now six months (it was two years even as late as 10 years ago). The cycles have been shortening for a long time now, but what worries me is this: is this a good thing? Do we sacrifice the grand steps forward for incremental improvements on yesterday’s technology? Think of the difference between a car built in 1975 and one in 1985; and then consider one built in 1995 and a brand-new car. The latter pair don’t seem to be that different, and I can’t help thinking that in computing, things will be the same—at least in the west and among its establishments.