Two terms that are tossed around very frequently in the telecommunications industry are “dual-mode” and “fixed-mobile convergence.” Both refer to the idea that, someday, there may be phone services and handsets available that let users seamlessly switch between different types of networks. Most often, the idea is that those will be cellular and WiFi networks.
Dual-mode services promise to improve the end-user experience when using next-generation telephony—saving money on minutes and getting access to better bandwidth when within range of WiFi network, but retaining connectivity via cellular in virtually all locations.
A new report out this week from Ovum, though, says that the industry of late has been much too focused on the development of dual-mode phones. All this hype, the research firm claims, is creating unrealistic expectations surrounding the viability of dual-mode telephony anytime in the foreseeable future.
“We predict that by the end of 2010, only just over 2 percent of mobile subscribers, or less than five and a half million people, will have purchased dual-mode services, almost ten years after vendors first began talking up the potential of the technology,” Ovum analyst Jan Dawson said in a statement.
In fact, Ovum questions whether dual-mode services will ever take off as hoped.
“Equipment vendors have been fixated on dual-mode phones as the key form of fixed-mobile convergence, but the people responsible for implementing this at the carriers are really skeptical that the devices and solutions are ever going to be ready for prime time,” Dawson says.
Dawson goes on to point out that “fixed-mobile convergence” can and should encompass much more than just dual-mode phones and services. One element that should be included is “identity convergence”—the ability of consumers to use the same phone number, e-mail address, username and password on both their wired and wireless devices.
Identity convergence offers obvious benefits to users, but Dawson says that it is online portals like Yahoo!,
Google and MSN that are taking the lead in this area, rather than carriers—to the detriment of the carriers.
Another area that’s not getting enough play, Dawson says, is remote access and control.
“Remote access and control is nascent today but there's a big opportunity here for the carriers to invest in technology and capture this opportunity as it arises,” Dawson says in the report. Consumers likely would be very excited about—and willing to pay for—services such as ability to remotely program their DVRs or check home monitoring systems.
On the business end, the Ovum report advises that carriers looking to invest in FMC should consider mobile extension and enterprises gateway services that provide intelligent call routing and control for enterprises looking for ways to reduce mobile spending.
“These solutions are going to deliver many of the benefits people associate with dual-mode solutions without the costs and hassle of deploying a WiFi infrastructure for voice, or the limitations of dual-mode devices,” says Dawson.
The Ovum report, if its predictions and analysis are correct, should serve as a wake-up call to the telecommunications industry. Dual-mode services may not fly, but other FMC services have great potential.
“Recent merger and acquisition activity has left us with three major players with a significant opportunity to combine wireline and wireless offerings, but we've yet to see any real moves in this direction,” Dawson notes. :Now is the time to act.”
What do you think—is Ovum on the money or does this report miss the mark?
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