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The power of Google’s ability to perform fast and accurate Web searches comes in large part from the its distributed nature—using a geographically dispersed network of computing power to deliver results to users quickly. Distributed systems like Google’s have another advantage, too: they inherently protect against any single point of failure since if equipment in one location goes down the slack can be picked up somewhere else.
 
In a Thursday post, ZDNet MobileTech blogger Eric Everson suggested that, in light of two major outages within a year, RIM might want to consider a more distributed type of architecture to provide service for its BlackBerry devices, rather than feeding everything through a centralized system.
 
Everson quoted a Canadian Press report as pointing out that, “The concentration of RIM's BlackBerry service at a single network operation centre in the Ontario city of Waterloo, through which traffic such as e-mails are routed, exacerbates such problems and leaves it open to more crashes.”
 
Everson added in his post, “If at a network level everything is routed through a bottleneck configuration it likely doesn’t take the Founder of MyMobiSafe.com to point out that there may be some mobile security issues users should consider.”
 
In other words, there is power in numbers and RIM might do well to consider adopting a distributed network architecture to avoid such a major outage again in the future.
The rumor mill is in full gear this week suggesting that AT&T will be introducing its own “branded” model of Palm’s Centro smartphone, till now available exclusively through Sprint.
 
The PalmAddicts blog said Sprint’s exclusive hold on the Centro, which began shipping in early October, was rumored to be a three-month deal, so now’s about the time you’d expect to see it start being offered by other carriers.
 
Engadget seemed very confident in a Thursday post that AT&T’s Centro is set being shipping on February 19. The price likely will be $99, and the color probably white.

FCC 700MHz Auction Update

February 1, 2008 5:15 PM | 0 Comments
Update as of 5:10 p.m. on Friday, February 1, 2008: after 25 rounds of bidding, the FCC’s 700MHz auction has pulled in just over $18 billion.
 
Earlier in the day, after 24 rounds of bidding, RCR Wireless News noted that the bidding had slowed, with only 1.8 billion coming in during the first three rounds Friday morning (compared with $4 billion for all round on Thursday).
 
The eight C Block licenses did not receive any new bids, RCR Wireless noted, which means bidding on this block may be done. (If so, will Google emerge as not only the white night that rescued open access but also as the owner of the spectrum?)
 
How do you see the rest of the auction playing out?
It just doesn’t add up. During Steve Jobs’ Macworld keynote, he reported that Apple shipped four million iPhones so far. But AT&T says it had only about two million iPhone customers at the end of 2007. Even taking into account the fact that Apple now has service agreements with carriers in countries other than the U.S., it appears there is a discrepancy. 
 
InformationWeek offers information from analysts at Sanford Bernstein that attempts to explain the mismatch between Apple’s and AT&T’s numbers. The analyst firm estimated that Apple’s total iPhone shipments are actually 3.75 million, not 4 million. The firm also estimated that carriers have activated 2.35 million iPhones.
 
“Assuming that 20% of the unactivated phones may have been unlocked to work on other networks, that still leaves 670,000 iPhones unaccounted for,” InformationWeek noted in its report.
 
That means that there is a pile of not-yet-activated iPhones in the hands of carriers. The question remains: can Apple still hit its target of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008? What do you think?
 
On a somewhat related note, Rich Tehrani blogged yesterday that Motorola may be considering spinning off its handset business. He asked whether this is really a smart move, given how big mobility is these days. The company has operations in 44 countries/regions and describes itself as “a global communications leader” that’s all about seamless mobility, broadband embedded systems and wireless networks.

MacBook Air: Heart or Head?

January 31, 2008 10:18 AM | 0 Comments
There has been time now for industry analysts to really take a good look at Apple’s new MacBook Air laptop computer. The initial infatuation with the world’s thinnest laptop has worn off, and some people are now willing to note its drawbacks as well as its advantages.
 
For example, BusinessWeek reporter Stephen Wildstrom said that MacBook Air “set off an intense struggle” between his heart and his head. On the heart side: this computer is really sexy, one might even say a work of art. It also crams more into a very slim package than probably seemed possible before Steve Jobs’ latest Macworld keynote.
 
But, on the head side, Wildstrom said his practical, business-oriented self thinks the lack of built-in disc drive, Ethernet port and broadband card slot could be deal-breaker. He pointed out, for example, that WiFi (which is built into the MacBook Air) is not ubiquitous in places like hotel rooms, requiring the business user to hook up an external Ethernet port for Internet connectivity.
 
For the small subset of users who put a premium on mobility, Wildstrom said, the inability to swap out the battery also poses a problem; he said he got four hours of heavy use on a single charge, but when traveling there are times when he needs more than that.
 
“Ultimately, the Air presents potential buyers with a tough choice,” Wildstrom wrote in the Newsweek report. “It is lovely to look at and delightful to hold. The screen may be the best I've seen, and the keyboard is better than the MacBook Pro's. Even after prolonged use, the case stays fairly cool to the touch. Against that, you need to weigh the inconvenience caused by all the things Apple chose to leave out. The product might not have been quite as smooth and shiny with these elements, but it would have had greater rational, as well as emotional, appeal.”
 
What do you think—is the MacBook Air more appealing to the heart or the head? I’d be willing to bet the answer depends on where and how you might plan to use this new laptop.
As of Tuesday, the FCC had conducted 12 rounds of bidding for sections of the 700MHz spectrum, over a span of four days. But one of the blocks up for bid isn’t garnering much interest among potential buyers, Reuters reported.
 
That is “Block D,” also known as the “public safety block” because it’s designated for use by police, firefighters and other public saftery officials, Reuters reported. So far there has only been one bid for this block—for $472 million, far below the FCC’s reserve price of $1.3 million.
 
If things don’t pick up soon for the D block, the FCC may be forced to modify its requirements for the spectrum and/or lower the price. Reuters speculated that the dearth of bidders may be due to the credit crunch companies in the U.S. are experiencing; possibly they simply can’t raise the capital.
 
Current requirements for the D block also likely make it less appealing in terms of return on investment: “Under rules adopted by the FCC, the winner of the D block airwaves will be required to negotiate an agreement with public safety agencies, build out a nationwide network and then give those agencies priority use during emergencies,” Reuters explained.
 
What do you think—will someone step in yet to rescue the D block? Or will the FCC have to change its expectations for this section of the spectrum?
So, with the FCC’s 700MHz spectrum auction underway, the $4.6 billion question is: will Google come to the rescue of open access or not? If the company bids more than the $4.6 billion reserve (minimum) price specified for the C Block of spectrum to be licensed as “open,” then the consumer advocacy groups and some analysts will be pretty happy.
 
Of course if Google does bid that much, it’s possible the company may actually go all the way and win the spectrum itself. Or not. The outcome will either paint Google as the knight in shining armor or as a company determined to really shake up the wireless market.
 
Which do you think it will be?
700Mhz auction. Does that get your heart racing? It isn’t garnering nearly the same level of excitement as, say, Apple releasing a new product. But the FCC’s auction, set to begin tomorrow, nonetheless is setting off some chatter in the wireless industry.
 
Whether or not the impact of the auction ends up, on balance, having a negative or positive effect remains to be seen—and likely depends a lot on where you’re sitting. For example, an InfoWorld report today warned that this particular auction may very well be similar in its impact to the “disastrous 1996 C-Block PCS auction,” yet that isn’t deterring companies that plan to bid.
 
“Like the earlier auction, the 700MHz auction is set to occur in a faltering economy, presenting challenges to license hopefuls needing cash,” InfoWorld said in its report. “Yet, just like that ill-fated auction more than 10 years ago, an oddball collection of participants plan to bid, this time including the Missouri Farmers' Union, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Brooklyn, and Disney.”
 
Why was the C-Block auction in 1996 “disastrous”? InfoWorld said: “because it was designed not just for companies with access to billions of dollars but for entrepreneurs interested in getting into the wireless industry. Postal carriers, lawyers, and doctors quit their day jobs and invested their savings, confident that U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) incentives would help them make it big.”
 
Out of an original 255 bidders in the 1996 auction, InfoWorld said, 89 won licenses and only a handful went on to start actual businesses. All the rest went bankrupt, sold their licenses at significant losses, or returned the licenses to the FCC as part of an amnesty program.
 
What do you think—will the 700MHz auction be a repeat, with many disappointed gold-diggers in the end losing more than they invest? Or something entirely different?
Wireless service providers may need to engage in some reality-checking during 2008 when it comes to projected versus actual revenue growth associated with mobile business applications. That’s what In-Stat predicted this week in a new report, Wireless Data in the US Enterprise 2007: Avoiding a CDPD Reprise.
 
The research firm expects revenue growth for this particular wireless sector will end up being about 44 percent from 2007 to 2008, down slightly from 50 percent for 2006 and 2007. Why the slight downturn? In-Stat chalked it up to the services companies actually implement, which tend to be somewhat reduced from plans made by decision-makers.
 
“As business users approach saturation for horizontal mobile data applications, most of the growth potential remains for vertical market applications,” In-Stat analyst Bill Hughes said in the report. “These require more planning and time to implement. The result is that many within the wireless industry may have overoptimistic forecasts.”  
 
In terms of horizontal applications, In-Stat said the following four have the highest penetration because they’re relatively easy to implement: wireless Internet, wireless IM, wireless e-mail and personal information management (PIM).
 
What do you think—are service providers expecting too much from an increasingly saturated market?
As if ordering delivery take-out food wasn’t already easy enough, USA Today recently reported that soon it may no longer be necessary to even talk to another person on the phone to put in your order. That’s because text ordering is being adopted by more and more national fast-food and other restaurant chains, allowing users to send their requests for sustenance via a cell phone.
 
Among the chains now offering or looking into offering text ordering: Papa John’s (national TV spots now promote the service), Domino’s (launched last July), Pizza Hut (soon to get started), Quiznos (considering), Dunkin’ Donuts (considering), Subway (considering), McDonald’s (testing in Seoul), and Starbucks (trial underway in London and in one U.S. store).
 
The USA Today report quoted Papa John’s CEO Nigel Travis as saying that the potential of texting can be compared to online ordering, which currently accounts for 20 percent of the company’s sales. (He went on to predict that, within two years, texting will account for 3 percent of sales.)
 
Americans send about 30 billion text messages each month, USA Today noted. GoMoboo.com CEO Noah Glass was quoted in the report as predicting that texting very well might account for 25 percent of all takeout food orders by the time another decade is gone.
 
Not everyone is thrilled about using cell phones to text in takeout orders, though; some users are concerned about privacy. For example, one user quoted in the USA Today report said he guards his cell phone number carefully, describing it as “the last firewall of privacy.” Giving it to a national restaurant chain in the process of placing an order could be in invitation to unwanted calls, he implied.
 
What do you think—do the benefits of text ordering outweigh the potential privacy breaches?
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