While it is way too early to say Adobe’s Flash platform is doomed – it seems Apple is really pushing the issue of making it irrelevant. After years of not having Flash on the iPhone, developers (TMC included) have been making alternate plans and now many are looking at dropping support for Flash altogether.
Lack of Flash support on the iPhone is something I have referred to as the real Apple tax and the iPad, a device which has a processor powerful enough to make short work of displaying HD video doesn’t have Flash support either. This confirms what a few people who formerly worked at Adobe have told me in the past – Apple doesn’t want Flash on the iPhone – and apparently the iPad. Remember – some said the iPhone wasn’t powerful enough to run Flash – the iPad certainly has the needed horsepower.
What has to be most scary for Adobe and its investors though is this post from Robert Scoble which explains developers are beginning to program around Adobe’s Flash platform. And I have to agree with Robert – there is little if anything Adobe can do about it. Perhaps one of his suggestions will work out for the company but it seems like they are in real trouble here.
Robert suggests Google may save Flash – but you could argue the fact that Google converted its video library to H.264 so it could run on the iPhone is a primary reason Apple was able to get away with selling a smartphone with no Flash support in the first place.
And to think, a few years back with fairly weak competition from Microsoft’s Silverlight, most analysts and others would have said the Flash monopoly would be around for many years.
It shows you how fast things can change in the world of tech.