Fallout 4 in 2015? A Better Chance Than You Think.

Steve Anderson : End Game
Steve Anderson
The Video Store Guy
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Fallout 4 in 2015? A Better Chance Than You Think.

With the arrival of the Fallout 4 trailer, it really was only a matter of time until people started speculating about when this was coming out. I've already done some of my own, and the crew out at Forbes did likewise. As it turns out, we actually had a few points in common, so settle in and I'll run down the chances that Fallout 4 will hit store shelves by the end of this year. Oh, and I'm pegging it at about one in three odds.

That's crazy, you might think. No game goes from preview trailer to store shelves in a little better than six months, but nevertheless, when Bethesda hits E3 to talk Fallout 4--and it's very cheering indeed to know it will talk Fallout 4--it might well end up saying "Coming November 2015", and I expect about one chance in three that it will do just that. Why? Well, there are several reasons. Forbes' Paul Tassi noted that several retailers had a 2015 release date up, with some including "December 31, 2015". Most of us know that's a placeholder date, however, so take that with a grain of salt. But throw in reports that Bethesda itself, on its website, had actually marked it as "TBA 2015" before switching over to just "TBA", and that throws a little extra authenticity into the process.

Tassi also notes the history of Bethesda releases, noting that Fallout 3 got its announcement in 2014 before being released in 2008. Skyrim, meanwhile, was announced a year before its release. Fallout: New Vegas, just to cap it off, got an announcement and then a release just seven months later. Though Tassi is quick to point out that New Vegas reused the Fallout engine, and was made by a completely different team.

But it's this exact point that says maybe we could see a Fallout release in 2015. What if Bethesda's been laying the groundwork on Fallout 4 since the end of 2008? A bit of a longshot, maybe, but that'd mean seven years going into this sequel. Plus it's worth noting that Bethesda has been notoriously tight-lipped throughout the whole proceeding. It could be literally anywhere in the development process, including inches from done, and who would know the difference? Nothing has escaped from this operation except the existence of a trailer, which made its formal appearance weeks ago.

The release dates also make things interesting. Fallout 3 came out in 2008, with its last DLC following in August 2009. Fallout New Vegas followed in 2010, with its last DLC in 2011. As of right now, it's been just shy of four years without new Fallout. That's a long time to be in development. Granted, it would lose some development spark to Skyrim, and to The Elder Scrolls Online, but we are indeed due for some Fallout, having been almost four years without.

So that's what's got me thinking there's a fair chance of a 2015 release. It's been a good while without any new Fallout, Bethesda's been playing this so close that we could be anywhere in the process, and some reports suggest a possibility. Now. do I actually think this is the year for Fallout? I hope so. But I do doubt it. That's why I'm putting two to one on 2016, but with a still fair chance that this could be the year. See you in the Wasteland, folks!

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