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It’s hard to argue with common sense.

 

For those who don’t know Verizon is making it happen with over 160 cities turned up so far with amazing speeds above their promised numbers.  Once the load gets on the network they will deliver what they promised, but as Chris points out it’s hard to imagine an application for consumers that notices the difference between 10 MB down and 21 MB down.

While attending the IIT RTC event I was fortunate to interview with Chris Mayer of Verizon about the state of 4G LTE.  Chris is involved in the development and design of systems integration and testing and his insight as to where we stand with Verizon Wireless 4G LTE roll out is informative. 

Google and Apple are vying for your attention today.

If you are a carrier, your bed fellows are not staying the night! Google with the Nexus One announcement that is all about the Android operating system and not a carrier. And strangely enough the Apple iTablet maybe the same thing. The rumors on the iTablet seem to indicate it may be devoid of 3G / 4G wireless interfaces and only support WiFi. While that will be a major plus for ATT who has already worked with Apple on the dual mode functionality of the iPhone, I should point out that Verizon has been the better company at supporting the use of USB 'sticks' (dongels?). It will be interesting to see if a bundle comes from either of the two carriers with the iTablet.

The long wait for WiMAX in the Windy City as well as the DFW Metroplex is over -- as we expected, Clearwire is now selling services in both cities, keeping with the company's strategy of "soft launching" markets online before staging an "official" market opening with all the attendant hoopla.

Since it's Nov. 1, time for a new map -- and the one on the Clear.com website now shows Chicago "in the green" of Clearwire services, while adding Dallas/Fort Worth to the list of cities with service in Texas.




In North Carolina, the cities of Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro are also now listed as "live," so it looks like Clearwire should be able to make good on its promise to step up subscriber numbers in Q4, simply by having lots more markets selling services.

The big ones, however, are Chicago and Dallas -- two huge metro areas where Clearwire will see how it fares against existing service providers. In Chicago, Clearwire also has its first true "commuter" city, since thousands there ride the rails every day, to and from work, play, school and in just general getting-aroundness.

Will WiMAX's ability to connect while mobile make a big impression? We are only now just going to find out. We'll have some more thinking on Clearwire market launches later this week. And yes, the launches mean that Sprint's 4G services are available there too. Meanwhile, more detail from the Chicago maps below.

Editor's note: The following is an excerpt from our latest quarterly report on all things Clearwire, the CLEARWIRE NTK OCTOBER 2009 (need to know) report, available now for the low low price of $4.95.

In this excerpt we talk about why we think the lack of interesting WiMAX end-user devices (or the overpriced ones that did launch) have kept users from flocking to Clearwire's 4G wireless broadband offering. For the full report, order online here. Report excerpt follows:

Prices and Devices: Waiting for a reason 'Why' to try WiMAX
Without a doubt, the coolest thing about WiMAX is its ability to provide a true broadband connection with cellular mobility. One of Clearwire's biggest problems, however, is a lack of a compelling reason to take advantage of that mobile connection -- and the dearth of devices that would allow you to even try.

The growing popularity and use of smartphones points to another WiMAX weakness -- the lack of truly portable devices that can take advantage of the technology's superior connectivity. As Clearwire CEO Bill Morrow showed during his 4G World keynote speech in September, in a side-by-side download speed comparison WiMAX leaves 3G in the dust.

But even the (videotaped) demo itself showed a bit of the WiMAX underwear peeking out: To make the tricky demo -- it was a side-by-side screenshot of two iPhones in a car driving down the road -- all the "regular" iPhone had to do was connect via the 3G cellular network; the WiMAX powered iPhone had to connect via Wi-Fi to a Clear Spot router in the car, which was connected to the WiMAX network via a plug-in USB dongle.

So: The WiMAX iPhone was faster, yes, but its kit was also more expensive and in need of a stylish European man-bag to tote all the extra gear around. Though hybrid WiMAX smartphones do reportedly exist -- HTC claims to be selling one for the Yota WiMAX network in Russia -- Clearwire's customer base so far doesn't seem to be big enough to convince device makers that producing such a beast is worth it.

The one vendor that did launch a cool handheld WiMAX device -- Samsung's Mondi, unveiled at the Vegas Clearwire launch -- turned out an overly expensive, somewhat confusing form-factor machine that wasn't big enough to do "real" laptop work. It also doesn't contain an alternate cellular link to make voice calls an easy proposition.

To top it off, Samsung and Clearwire couldn't even get their pricing message straight -- in Las Vegas, a Samsung PR representative told us that the device would sell at $450 unlocked, or $350 with a two-year Clearwire contract. But a few weeks later when Clearwire started offering the Mondi, the subsidy discount was nowhere in sight -- the device would be $450 to all users, contract or no contract. Meanwhile, the iPhone 3GS sells for $199 with a two-year contract. Any questions?

For all the Clearwire knowledge you NEED TO KNOW for the latest quarter, order our CLEARWIRE NTK OCTOBER 2009 report today for just $4.95 -- that's right, less than five bucks for a lengthy take on Clearwire market launches, device plans, business news and more.

It's game of inches as they say. 

I have been looking at the reporting about Verizon's App Store activity and find the perspective of some pundits troubling.

As I reported when I went to the Verizon Developers Conference, the goal Verizon has is very different than being the equivalent of the iTunes AppStore.

Lets be honest, how many of us have looked at all 65,000 apps, and how many of us really want to.

Verizon announced a partnership with Vodafone, China Mobile and Softbank to deliver applications their way.  Very specfically Verizon was looking to open the interfaces for location, billing and trust (security).  I noted that their strategy was associated with a API that masked alot of the behind the scenes OSS work. 

Carriers and cellphone vendors have procedures for turning on the phone that represent over 100 steps in provisioning and configuration.  Verizon has tried to make the network valuable without having the carrier's internal OSS stifle the developer.  The one requirement is work within a framework. A lot of the companies that are on the iPhone do not like this framework, and it shows in in the blogosphere.

So Vodafone makes its announcement about their efforts to build Vodafone 360 which to me is a another strategy in keeping with the alliance, but is not getting the anger yet.

I think the reason maybe be that Verizon is in the California footprint and the developers are asked all the time "Can I use it on my phone" and since VZW is big in California, the answer frustrating.

There's an overflow crowd here at the 4GWE session on femtocells, so I'll try some liveblogging to keep you in the flow of the discussion if you're not here in the room with us. Keep refreshing this post, we are adding as it goes along.

What is a femtocell? David Chambers from Amdocs, our session moderator, gives the overview: It is basically a "complete [cellular] base station, shrunk to size."

Chambers says North America is a ripe femto market, since it has poor cellular coverage, good wired broadband, and people with money to spend. Theoretically :-)
David Nowicki, VP of marketing and product management from femto manufacturer Airvana, now speaking. Talking about the femto forum -- industry group promoting femto standards.

Femto Forum -- 43 operators, covering 1.3 billion subscribers; 17 of the top 20 mobile operators playing together.

What does the consumer get out of installing a femto? David says there's an 80-page white paper on the forum web site, woof! We'll read that later. Talking now about a family adding a femto to their house... it costs the operator at least $400 up front to integrate the device in -- but over the life of the customer contract it is worth it because ARPU goes way up. Could double the ARPU.

The family uses more data -- adds big-bucket calling plans -- more services, like TV -- so femtos can be a way to bring more bundles into a subscriber contract. Plus it offloads some data from the service provider network -- more savings.

Who will want femtos? Two-thirds (according to analysis) of customers are wireline customers who want mobility as a complementary service. Makes sense since you need a wired connection (ed. note -- or something like Clearwire's WiMAX) to connect the femto.

Now speaking: Don Troshynski, technical director at Acme Packet, going to talk about back end stuff. Why would you use a SIP-based femtocell? Going beyond R99 phone, get ready for IMS deployments.

SIP also means a need for controls... watching for DOS attacks, latency is a worry... so you need to make sure this is a well-engineered box. Worms and viruses, oh my! (little bit of fun animation on the powerpoint). Overall message: You have to consider the overall security solution when you are deploying these as a service provider.

Now up: Barlow Keener, Keener Law Group, on legal/reg issues of femto deployment.

Says the FCC first mentioned "femtocell" in Feb of 2008. They are "taking notice" but no rulemaking or decisions ... yet! 

Macro towers are now surrounded by barb-wire fences... now we are going to put those kind of towers into the hands of consumers, who can hack them, play with them, take them on vacation... "take it to Vermont, because I can't get service there."

Comparing VoIP regulation... net neutrality regulation... "femtocell looks a whole lot like VoIP service." Where will femto links fall when FCC takes a look? (And they WILL look, regulation normally lags the deployments)

Also need to think about 911 calls... triangulation... since you don't know where the antenna is, "much more difficult" to determine where the caller is calling from. GPS chip? Won't get to satellite in a building. "This is going to be an issue."

Billing -- providers don't want to talk about this. Roaming issues created when you move a femto to someone else's licensed territory... minutes that go through femto would be considered roaming... this could get ugly! (ed. note: Will airport security check you for femtos?) Could Internet providers "block" calls coming in through a femto? (ed. note: sounds like the full employment act for those lawyers who don't have net neutrality to argue about anymore)

Now open for audience questions. Any out there in cyberspace? email me at kaps at sidecutreports.com and I will relay.

Moving about -- can you bring your femto with you? Panelists say no, you can move to an area where your provider has spectrum, but not in other places. Apparently people tried this in Asia -- took their femtos with them, made "local" calls on the road. Providers will sniff this out, block it. (ed. note: Let's get ready to rumble!)

Question now about billing... guess from panel is that there may be "overflow" pricing, where if you don't use femto bandwidth you can roll it over. Might carriers bundle fixed service and femto mobile? "Hard to predict" what the billing dynamics might be. Could it cannibalize mobile services? Answer -- service providers are pricing this different ways. Sprint, $10 a month, all the calls you want. In Japan femtos are free -- create value by "recruiting" other family members to services -- or via apps like parental control, etc., specific to the femto. Too early to generalize how femtos/services will be priced.

Acme Packet's Don -- may be worth it to the operator to sacrifice price for benefits.

Keener -- says "it will come back to the lawyers" because of class action suits like the ones against AT&T and Apple about iPhones not performing. RAN engineers say they can't handle all the new data, femtos a way to offload.

Moderator David Chambers throws this one out: Is Wi-Fi (combined with things like Skype) a worthy competitor to femtos? Is that the real 4G competition, and not WiMAX vs. LTE? Acme Packet's Don: not going to replace the convenience of cellular. Keener: Think we are heading toward true convergence -- use Truphone, Skype... voice revenues dropping, the ability to deliver data will count more. That means ARPU will drop.

Airvana Dave: It will be both... all phones support femto, some will support Wi-Fi. 20 percent of handsets now have Wi-Fi... look at iPhone? Allows you to use Wi-Fi for Internet, but no operator (AT&T) services over Wi-Fi. Use both, for two different services. Keener again: OK to use Skype over your data "minutes"? (ed. note: Guessing this may be part of the next net neutrality battleground, don't you?)

Good audience question: Is a femto a better in-building solution than Wi-Fi? Airvana's Dave: That's what it's all about. If you want to support voice and data, do both. Femto primarily so everyone can make calls... Wi-Fi, good way to do Internet access. You could set up a network with only femtos... both voice and data, think if doing it today, still early days and you would do both. 

Audience: Is there a femto/Wi-Fi combo? Airvana's Dave -- manufacturers have such products, they have not been offered yet. Three years from now, you'll see mainly an integrated product. Keener "takes his lawyer hat off" and talks about the home gateway -- aka Holy Grail for the Netgears of the world. Music, video downloads, etc., to be stored there... (ed. note we have heard this idea before... but Tivos are still a niche... )

OK, got to sign off to do moderator duties. Thanks for reading!

With back to back sessions this afternoon at the 4GWE Conference, it's tough to cram all this great info into short blog posts (but of course that won't stop us from trying). In a panel this afternoon about Giving Voice to 4G, the bottom line seemed to be that given the advanced characteristics of 4G delivery technologies (mainly LTE, but WiMAX too), it shouldn't be a problem to eventually add voice to a 4G wireless service. The harder part? Trying to decide which technological path to take, and how to mix voice in without killing off existing 2G and 3G services, which rely on voice margins for profit.

Mehmet Balos, CTO of Genband, did a good job of explaining the different methods being considered for Voice over 4G -- basically either a 2G-compatible direction, a method called VoLGA, or a full-blown IMS. While IMS is generally considered by most observers as a best-eventual outcome, other alternatives may be faster and cheaper to deploy. (Watch this space for presentations that will bring more "color" to this discussion.)

Any thoughts out there about the best way to add voice to 4G? Might today's sale of Skype throw a monkey wrench into the idea of charging money for voice going forward? Or will customers pay for video, and voice will ride along for free (an idea put forth by panelist Don Troshynski of Acme Packet)?

Lowell McAdam, President & CEO of Verizon Wireless open the conference talking about the future is open.

Here they are talking about being the carrier of choice for apps.  Verizon Wireless mission is to win the application developers need for a reliable network and they see a vision where HD video fits comfortably in the platform that LTE provides. 

Speaking about the SUN Java conference, McAdam shared the view that developers think beyond the traditional view of cell phone.

Billing and network services such as location are being offered in the Network API that is being rolled out here, today.

John Stratton EVP & CMO, then shared the reset of development with Verizon.  

He made clear that the move was to Java while still supporting the history of Brew.  However, Java is a platform with an open community and the goal is to support all sorts of developers.  The Verizon plan is to provide over 70% of the revenue to the developer and to provide the ability to launch on their app store in 14 days.

The App store is not aimed at an SDK but a toolset that brings the Verizon's support services to the application

I am in San Jose for the Verizon Developer Community Conference,  It should be an interesting an event, they have brought their execs here to speak to folks in California.  One thing I expect to here is the need for LTE for future applications.

I am going to be listening for the way that people react to the ideas Verizon has for their network app store that is independent of a device, and their vision for a network API that is not independent of the carrier.

My friend Andy Abramson recently highlighted the Gizmo5 to Google Voice which can also support Skype connection.  For the end user, this is great stuff the more you can make a free call the better.

From the view of a network operator, the question is why are these types of applications compelling?  Is the price the only thing that matters? Or is the value connectivity something that should be enabled on their network.

I will be very interested to hear the conversations at the event.

Very different press about Ericsson being acquired by Nortel, then when Nokia Siemens Networks "won" the bid a month ago.

NSN was talking integration, had customers talking about synergies of support and you got the general sense that the deal was about customer acquisition and enabling a smooth transition. I think NSN, even in the loss,  may have benefited from the early win as well with the customer base.  They looked like they were about service and kept a lot of good will.

This time, the customer is being acquired and so are the patents for CDMA, a technology that is not normally of interest to Ericsson, since its portfolio with CDMA is not as strong as its GSM/UMTS patents.

As we head toward Release 9 of the 3GPP standards effort, it will be interesting to see if some of CDMA creeps back in. 3GPP crushed CDMA in previous releases forcing Qualcomm to end its efforts.  However CDMA has been credited with Verizon's success in the past and it maybe they are willing to regret the termination of CDMA now that Ericsson is no longer an antagonist.

The acquistion also has implications for Sprint and the cable operators since they partner and the cable operators like Ericsson's view of service delivery strategies.

My normal rule of thumb is any acquisition takes a year to digest. Now this calls into question the Avaya deal.  So we will stay tuned to discussion.