A Look Ahead at 2010

Alan Percy : The SIP Invite
Alan Percy
| Observations by Alan D. Percy on VoIP enabling technology, industry and our personal reach for success.

A Look Ahead at 2010

Wireless Internet - with the increasing use of handheld smart phones, wireless Internet usage will soar and with it will come increased congestion, reliability issues and eventually usage fees.  The "all you can use" wireless Internet is going to get expensive.

Apple will end exclusive arrangement with AT&T - with competition from Google Android (the operating software for the "Droid") and ever increasing network congestion and performance issues on the AT&T network (see above), Apple will be forced to finally end their exclusive relationship and expand to other carriers.  At first to other GSM carriers (T-Mobile) and then CDMA carriers (like Verizon and Sprint).  However, an iPhone for CDMA networks requires a different radio in the iPhone which means there will end up being two different phones and users will never be able to jump from GSM to CDMA carriers without buying a new phone.

Google will aggressively exploit Apple / AT&Ts performance issues (see above) and become a strong competitor in the mobile device market with both GSM and CDMA carriers (still with different devices).

HD Voip - the pieces are all there, and the first few carriers are readying their product launches.  Your wireline telephone is about to become obsolete.  Once you hear it - you will understand.

Fiber-to-the-home - will grow as fast as they can bury the conduit.  Whether it comes from Verizon with their FiOS offering or your local cable operator, coax and twisted pair copper wires are dead.  Blazing speed Internet, HDTV and video on demand over IP will drive a wooden stake in the heart of the old copper infrastructure.  Long live FTTH!

Video over IP - I've seen the future and it's unbundled video over IP services like Netflix, Blockbuster, and Amazon.com with their streaming or digital downloads to your DVR.  They completely obsolete video on demand with it's limited choices and start times.  Also, why would anyone go into a video rental store ever again?

Blu-Ray - with the HD-DVD / Blu-ray battle ending two years ago and sufficient HDTVs in people's homes, it's time for Blu-ray to take off.  But, only if Blu-ray disks also include a DVD or digital copy for the kids room/car/portable player.  We've got too many other DVD-only devices around the house to limit playback.  But, Blu-ray will have to compete with Video over IP services and will never be as ubiquitous as DVD rentals were 10 years ago.

Twitter is in Twouble - it's 15 minutes of fame are over and it will basically settle in as a replacement for PR news wire services with content by the people and for the people.  Much like web pages, email, YouTube and blogging, social media in general will find a home in the suite of communications tools.  The bottom line is that talented people will always be needed to create interesting/funny/insightful content to keep your attention - otherwise it's just noise.

Morse Code - sorry to see you go, but when the ARRL and FCC dropped it from the Amateur Radio operating requirements, now there is absolutely no reason to keep it around.  --. --- --- -.. -... -.-- .

Jobs recovery - Green energy, Biotechnology and security are the growth areas for the next decade.  Kids - make sure you prepare yourselves for these industries / careers. 

Energy/Fuel prices - with our sputtering economy taking a long slow recovery, I suspect we will enjoy relatively low fuel prices at least for the first six months.  This will give time for the auto manufacturers to figure out how to make a plug-in-hybrid for the masses.  Hopefully it will be ready when the prices of fuel take off again.

And with that, I wish you all a very Happy New Year and see you soon!

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