By David Sims
[email protected]
The news as of the first coffee this morning, and the music
is The Definitive Collection: Patsy Cline.
First CoffeeSM had wondered why she remains so popular, but now
realizes she never sings a line that a guy wouldn’t want to hear a girl say to
him:
Thanks to salesforce.com’s CEO Marc Benioff for sending First
CoffeeSM some info [read: riposte] regarding Siebel VP Bruce
Cleveland’s letter referenced in yesterday’s column.
“Regarding some of the points made in Cleveland’s note,”
he writes, “He said: ‘Siebel Systems has added more than 500,000 “live” users
of its CRM applications since the beginning of 2005, while salesforce.com has
added approximately 100,000 subscribers.’
“However, apples-to-apples, Siebel added only 11,000
subscribers to its on demand product in the same period, and has a signed up a
total of 39,000 subscribers over the last few years, compared to salesforce.com’s
308,000 at the end of Q2.
“IDC estimates
salesforce.com’s share of the on demand CRM market at more than 50 percent,
compared to Siebel’s 14 percent.”
That’s always the sticky wicket with these two: Of course
Siebel’s the bigger overall CRM company, but when you focus just on the hosted
market, salesforce.com’s bigger. Now can we all agree on that and move on?
“Cleveland’s note alluded to a press release that said over
100 companies have switched from salesforce.com to NetSuite,” Benioff continues.
“What the press
release actually said was: ‘To date, more than 100 companies have switched
from salesforce.com and other legacy accounting applications such as Intacct,
Great Plains, QuickBooks and Peachtree to gain the cost savings and
productivity benefits of NetSuite’s One System for CRM, ERP and Ecommerce.’”
Benioff also included First
Albany’s analyst report on Oracle’s takeover of Siebel. The analyst, Nitin
Doke, writes that the move will have “little impact near term as SEBL’s
OnDemand offerings may take a backseat while ORCL focuses on big revenue
generators for Project Fusion.”
On a conference call “yesterday morning [Sept. 12],” Doke
writes, “ORCL stated that it will invest heavily in SEBL’s OnDemand offerings
and that it was ‘one of the key motivators for us to do the deal.’ On the one
hand, one could argue that SEBL’s OnDemand product is now placed into the
distribution muscle of a software giant with a massive global footprint, and
this could enhance the uptake of the SEBL OnDemand platform.”
This jibes with what Cleveland said in his letter, that
Larry Ellison had committed himself to investing in Siebel. However, Doke
writes, “Why would ORCL focus resources on the small OnDemand product line,
with very little associated revenue? Near term, we see little adverse impact
for salesforce.com.”
There’s also a question of whether Oracle’s interested in
paying royalties to IBM for the use of the middleware and DB2 databases Siebel
uses for their OnDemand product. Transitioning over to Oracle stuff while it’s
operative would be a difficult feat to pull off. Nevertheless First CoffeeSM
believes Larry Ellison when he says he has no plans to axe OnDemand, or that
Oracle Co-President [sic] Charles Phillips is talking through his hat when he
says OnDemand is “one of the jewels of the acquisition.”
Few thought Siebel’s on demand CRM product would throw
salesforce.com out of business and chase Marc Benioff back to mai-tais on Maui,
certainly salesforce.com is the 800-pound gorilla in the room when it comes to
on-demand CRM, with RightNow
Technologies and NetSuite already
in the field anybody would have had a hard time racking up significant numbers,
and actually 14 percent of the market’s pretty good, given the late ramp-up
Siebel had.
It also points up the fact that while Benioff can claim a
moral victory over the company he personally wanted to beat the most – between
Siebel and salesforce.com it was always personal – he hasn’t lost his most
formidable competition for the years ahead. He might not be “running scared,”
as Cleveland suggested, but he knows there be monsters here.
Few figured Siebel would swagger in hosted CRM and take over
the show. There’s nothing but respect from First CoffeeSM for how
hard they worked at it, however, and as all great competitors need someone to
push them – Evert and Navratilova, Bird and Magic, Frazier and Ali, the Beatles
and the Stones – Siebel certainly pushed salesforce.com to be better.
Yet their failure to make much more of a dent than that
bodes ill for the other big boys looking to piece off some of the market – SAP and Microsoft especially. If Siebel, arguably the legacy vendor best positioned
to succeed in on demand couldn’t do it, who else would you bet on?
If all Microsoft’s huffing and puffing can’t blow down Intuit’s house, for heaven’s sake, they
have no chance against a trio of well-established, smart and trusted vendors in
hosted CRM, especially when they’re having such a struggle defining their own
CRM identity.
The simple fact is that the on-demand market’s too small to warrant
the sort of major cultural revolution at a place like SAP or Microsoft would
have to have. To succeed in on-demand CRM they’d have to gut profitable
operations, shift significant internal resources, irritate currently profitable
partners and irk Wall Street, all for the opportunity to lose lots of money for
the foreseeable future in the hosted CRM space with no guarantees. That’s not
something First CoffeeSM sees them as willing to do.
It’d be like Tom
Cruise turning his back on Hollywood and $20 million paydays for a couple
months’ work on the next Mission:
Impossible installment to work his way up to become the biggest star on
Broadway and make $75,000 a week in The
Producers.
Not that the on-demand CRM market is chump change – First
CoffeeSM would take $75,000 a week, in case anyone was considering
offering. Benioff’s clearly looking beyond it with the announcement of AppForce
last week, and he’s said that CRM was a way to start, not an ending point for
him and his company.
No, hosted CRM isn’t Hollywood, it’s not the be-all and
end-all of the business software world, it might be too small a market for SAP
and Microsoft – and, soon, maybe for salesforce.com as well – but for those who
want to be there, it’s still a great place to be.
...
Correction: Yesterday First CoffeeSM called San
Jose the largest American city without a major pro sports franchise. A reader
from San Francisco wrote in to point out that there is, in fact, the San Jose Sharks of the National Hockey League.
Plain fact is, First CoffeeSM simply forgot about
the Sharks, who started out as a really cool logo in search of a team, but is
hockey a “major sport” in the United States? Word is the NHL isn’t on strike
anymore, but did anybody south of Buffalo care when they went on strike or
notice that now they’re not on ice but back on ice? (Rim shot)
According to a recent Harris poll 30 percent
of Americans say pro football is their favorite sport. After that there’s a
huge drop-off to baseball and college football at 15 and 11 percent, then men’s
pro basketball and men’s college basketball statistically intermingled with
auto racing.
Hockey’s tied with men’s golf at 4 percent, USA Today says some Arena Football
telecasts outdraw hockey. The MSL’s San
Jose Earthquakes averaged 13,000 fans in 2004, the Sharks got 15,000 per
game in 2003-2004. When you’re barely outdrawing slow, boring soccer in America, where half the crowd got
their tickets half-price at the grocery store and the other half are kids who got in free either for being crippled, seriously ill or reading a certain number of library books, the only major you’re
in is major trouble.
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