Digital Swarm

I see that the debate between Femtocells and WiFi in the home rages on (http://gigaom.com/2009/11/02/who-needs-femtocells-if-we-have-wi-fi/)  The basic argument against Femto's is that they are just offloading traffic from the carriers network and WiFi can do this just as easily.  To me, this is more than just offloading networks or having a better solution for voice than WiFi, this is about owning the gateway in the home. As homes become wireless hubs for everything from energy monitoring/control to remote healthcare, there will be an enourmous opportunity to aggregate all of this wireless traffic inlcuding the normal voice/data traffic. M2M traffic could become more prevalent than person-to-person traffic in the home over the next 5 years. Some of this traffic will lend itself to 4G networks moreso than WiFi, especially for remote objects that aren't on local sensor nets (like Zigbee).

The other unque opportunity for Femtocells is the fill the gap in the "continuum" between the home-car-office. Today, this is not well addressed by WiFi or even celular networks for that matter. Given femtocells can have an extended range well outside the home, this could create gap coverage (like accessing your media server from your car as your car is parked in the driveway or routing your health data to your trainer as your jogging through the neighborhood). Wifi cannot address this.

Having said this, I still think the carriers should subsidize the fentocells giving the fact it allows them to address the 25% of homes that do not have a fixed line phone today and also offload their networks, More importantly, it gives them a gateway into the home. I would love to see a 4G/WiFi gateway (which is available) offered by US carriers as a way to provide the best of both worlds.

Zigbee, the wireless sensor networking technology based on IEEE 802.15.4 is becoming the network of choice for control and monitoring in the home.  (http://everythingwireless.wordpress.com/2009/10/22/zigbees-value-to-personal-health-care/)  This includes applications in healthcare like glucose monitoring for remote patients and in energy like demand management across applicances in the home.  While Zigbee is fairly low data rate (typically 100kbps), it offers major advantages over Bluetooth and WiFi in terms of power consumption/battery life (typically 5 years), sensor cost, and range (up to 1000 ft).  As we see more devices with embedded microprocessors proliferate around the home and office, expect Zigbee to help connect these objects into intelligent Swarms to provide users with up to date intelligence and control of their environments.  These will complement 4G technologies like LTE which will deliver pervasive broadband to connect this local information to other users that need to access it from healthcare providers to energy companies.

Researchers in Australia and Singapore are working on a free ad-hoc mesh networking approach using the cellphones of users, http://itnews.com.au/News/157220,researchers-developing-free-mobile-mesh-network.aspx   This will use Peer to Peer WiFi and Bluetooth connections to assemble networks that can easily move data and content among users with no requirement for a carrier-based network.  Researchers from National ICT Australia (NICTA) and Singapore's A*STAR Institute for Infocomm Research (I2R) hope to demonstrate the technology within two years, according to the NICTA project leader Roksana Boreli.  This is a great example of a Digital Swarm enabler that will disrupt the current carrier centric wireless model and allow users to innovate around new free platforms similar to fon in the UK.  The implications for carriers is that they will need to have a compelling P2P offering and way to monetize this or their revenue will erode as more users communicate this way.  The recent move by AT&T to allow Skype on its data network shows a willingness to explore models that could canibalize their core business.  Better to be the disruptor than the disruptee.

The recent announcement from A&T and Terrastar on National roaming ( http://www.wirelessweek.com/News/2009/09/ATT-TerreStar-Plans-Dual-Mode-Phone/ )raises the discussion on the relative merits of satellites for wireless services again.  While this may fill in some gaps in AT&T's coverage, it is certainly not a viable long term solution for voice or low latency data services.  The half second round trip will always relegate satellite to niche communications such as public safety, disaster response and military applications in hard to reach areas unless a low earth orbit system can be deployed (like Iridium) which becomes cost prohibitive.

The main advantage for satellites is still broadcast data (such as direcTV) where they have a huge advantage over terrestrial repeaters given you can broadcast once to the entire country.  As mobile phones become more capable of receiving streamed multimedia, this is where satellites may finally gain real traction in the mobile space.

I came across an article from last year in the NY Times that documented some of the travels of User Anthrologist for Nokia, "Can the Cellphone Help End Global Poverty?" http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/13/magazine/13anthropology-t.html?ref=magazine
The article confirmed many of the things we hear anectdotaly that most of the innovation in wireless is happening in the developing world, not in the established markets.  with over two thrids of the cell phone subscriptions in the developing world, the most interesting applications are aimed at customers making less than $4/day.  Yet a recent McKinset report indicates that cellphones could provide up to $300-420B of economic impact.  A simple example of this is eChoupal, where Indian are able to call multiple markets before making the long trek to take their goods to a single market.  This results in better profits for the producers and lower prices for customers due to marker efficiencies.  Microfinancing is another example where cellphones enable a more efficient business model for the provider and the borrower.  The User Anthropoligist role may be something that not only developed carriers should consider but also enterprises as 4G hits the market.  As wireless networks become more "user-centric", it will be critical that all new services and applications start first by understanding the behavior of the user.

Strategy Analytics recently predicted Android Smartphone sales to increase by 900% in 2009.  Putting aside the fact that 900% of a small number if still a small number, but the reality is that Android has some real advantages when thinking about the 4G opportunity and Digital Swarms.  

First, it is a free OS so it supports the economics for a wide range of devices including small, low cost electronics like cameras, small appliances, and nav devices.  Second, it is designed from the cloud perspective without the heavy processing burden of more PC-centric operating systems, so once again, it does not become a heavy tax on the devices it supports.  Lastly, it has an open API for development which should spur innovative apps across a range of new devices that will connect across different networks (3G, WiMax, LTE, WiFi), not just a single network like many devices are restricted to currently.

So while Android still has a large gap to close on the likes of Apple, RIM, MS, and Symbian, it may have an advantage by starting with a fresh sheet of paper.

Reading the recent article in IEEE spectrum on smart contact lenses (http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens) made me think about the possibilities of improving our daily lives with small connected objects and 4G.  These lenses would allow users to see heads up display type data (maps, schedules, etc.), different spectral bands (Visible, IR, etc), and allow health information to be monitored and transmitted to physicians if needed.  The built in sensors and LEDs could be powered by RF energy harvesting or even ambient light.

The reason 4G becomes critical is not higher bandwidth, but rather the all IP network, the interaconnectivity among networks that the smart lens may need access to, and the security management given this could include very sensitive data.  Innovations like this would could be available in a 5 year timeframe signal a new area where human communication becomes and overlay to the many streams of sensors and devices communicating directly.

The recent announcement by China Unicom that they will offer iPhones in China (http://wirelessweek.com/News/2009/08/China-to-Get-iPhone/) is evidence of the surging demand for smartphones among the masses.  Unfortunately, the Chinese government requires them to disable the WiFi capability on the device which will significantly limit some of it's capabilities.  Never-the-less, the iPhone coupled with a growing middle-class with an appetite for entertainment could create a whole new wireless economy and social fabric in China.  Depending on how the app-store model takes root, there could be a new wave of Chinese entrepreneurs launcing apps to address everything from games to business productivity.   Hopefully Unicom's network is ready for the Tsunami.

While people obsess over the bandwidth that will be available in 4G networks like WiMax and LTE (and 100Mbps+ is pretty incredible), 4G is about much more than just speed.  Just as powerful is the interconnection of different network types including fixed networks, WPANs and WANs (Bluetooth, WiFi) and sensor networks like Zigbee.  This wireless "cloud" will enable a whole new level of interconnection among people and things.  An example of a company operating in the connecting "things" space is UgMO (http://ugmo.com/) , a PA-based company that provides wirelessly connected ground sensors for monitoring the health of turf on athletic fields.  The sensors can rely info back to an IP network using Zigbee.
Nokia has agreed to incorporate eco-sensors on an experimental handset (http://www.nokia.com/corporate-responsibility/environment/sustainable-products/eco-sensor-concept) that can mesaure air quality and pollution.  Readings from individuals can then be fed into a larger map for research purposes (Carnegia Mellon is working on this).   All of these applications will be further enabled by the wireless cloud coming as part of 4G.

This is hopefully the first of many entries on early examples of Digital Swarms enabled by 4G wireless technology.  In my book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution (Wharton School Publishing, Amazon), I define Digital Swarms as a distributed group of wirelessly connected users and objects acting in a semi-coordinated fashion around a common purpose.  Ubiquitous wireless and social networks are the underlying platforms that allow digital swarms to occur.

Digital Swarms will redefine everything from more efficient sales forces and supply chains to pervasive retail and virtual entertainment.  But it is not clear that enterprises and their leaders arer ready for this transformation.

As wireless moves to more distributed, context-aware, user-centric networks with 4G, disruptive innovation and new business models will become more frequent.  The World Wireless Research Forum (http://www.wireless-world-research.org) sets a goal for 4G of servicing 7 billion users and 7 trillion connected objects via wireless networks.  If you do the math, this implies each person will be wireelssly connected to around 1000 objects in their day-to-day life.  Everything from smart refrigerators to electric meters will be chirping into the network to provide data and get new commands.  Media devices such as camcorders, game consoles, music players, e-readers will automatically exchange data and optimize content for users.  This Swarm will center around users and their specific context and needs.  This will create a natural tension between carriers, application and content providers, and device manufacturers (as if this did not exist already!).  The ones that find a way to integrate the user into their innovation path will gain the greatest market power and profits.

Verizon and Qualcomm just recently announced a venture, nPhase, to service the m2m (machine-to-machine) market which is expected to have 430 million connected devices by 2013 according to Harbor Research.  Other reports have the size of the market exceeding $40B by 2011.  This seems like a smart move, esepcially given that others players have begun to move there (AT&T with Jasper, Kore Telematics, etc)

As we evolve beyond RFID with NFC, Zigbee, and Blueetooth/UWB enabled sensor networks with the overlay of 4G networks (LTE, WiMax) and an all-IPv6 core, this area should explode.  It may be one of the first and most profitable examples of swarms and 4G we will see.  The big question is who will control these networks?  Will the carriers simply provide connectivity or get into the game of managing distributed sensor/object nets?  Stay tuned.