Digital Swarm

When will we see the fundamental User Interface for Mobile devices change?  I do not consider touch screens a major UI breakthrough given they have been around since the 1980's.   Fundamentally, we have had the same windows/pointer based interface for the past 30 years!  So are we ready for a change?

There are some string signals on the horizon.  The major push is coming from several research labs developing gesture-based interfaces.  These include 6th sense out of MIT's Media Lab, Sony's EyeToy, Natal from Microsoft (gesture-based interface for Xbox), and a new approach from the Hasso Plattner Institute in Potsdam, Germany (http://www.technologyreview.com/communications/25380/?nlid=3025&a=f)  It is encouraging to see this many viable approaches to a new UI, even with some of these entering through the gaming market (first instigated by Nintendo with Wii).

The promise is that we will soon do away with keyboards, touchpads, and even monitors in favor of using our surroundings to be the interface.  This should encourage more immersive applications which our limited today by the constraints of having to type and face a screen.  One more stpe towards untethering us and unlocking the full power of Digital Swarms. Continue Reading...

There have been a wave of new innovations coming around using mobile phones as sensors.  The most recent is from a company called Rhevision which spun out of UCSD.  They have developed a tiny sensor that changes colr based on the presence of specific chemicals in the local environment.
(http://news.cnet.com/8301-27083_3-20005058-247.html?tag=newsEditorsPicksArea.0)  This continued advancement in tiny, cheap sensors will create a whole new set of solutions around participatory sensing with enormous social benefit.  Imagine knowing if the air in your office has any toxins in it?  or know if there are bacteria around your cafeteria or water cooler.  This used to take very expensive, and sophisticated detection equipment.  Soon it may be a matter of equipping a portion of employees with new smartphones.

The upside is obvious.  The downside of using people as sensors is the potential abuse of the information, especially knowing the context/location of the participating user.  With this information, many agencies will have deeper windows into our lives.  The trick will be to balance the protection of personal information with getting the necessary info to provide beneficial scientific results.  Much like in healthcare where knowing the patents entire life cycle profile could result in better treatments, mobile sensing services will need to tread carefully and demonstrate benefit in order for users to let more information out.  Whether its knowing the noise polution level in your neighborhood or your community carbon footprint, people will need to feel their data is contributing to something bigger.  If this can be managed, the potential of participatory sensing is limitless.
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While Google's first move into products, Nexus One, seems like it has had negligible impact (about 150,000 sold to date), the bigger questions should be when will the Android ecosystem of devices wield enough power to drive open devices capable of operating on any network.  (http://venturebeat.com/2010/04/12/google-android-unlocked-phones/)  With 50 different Andriod-based phone projects underway, it is just a matter of time until they are number two in the OS world and start to drive towards an unlocked device model.  As devices become smarter and more network-aware, this puts Google in a terrific position to be the "super carrier" where a single device can poll the best network at their location and consult a Google database to determine the best choice.  So while the carriers are embracing Android now as an immediate counter to Apple, they may be setting the stage for a new type of competitor. Continue Reading...

While the possibilities of a ubiquitous 100Mbps+ low latency network are incredibly exciting, we have to temper our enthusiasm a bit as the technical kinks, business model impediments, and device/chip economics are worked out.  On the technical side, we are seeing performance from WiMax and early LTE trials in the 5-12 Mbps range on average versus the 100Mbps vision.  But this is still better than what we have with 3G and is delivering these speeds with lower delay and an all IP data network that can begin to provide Quality of Service management.  There are several business model impediments including having two competing stadnards (LTE and WiMax), many different Operating Systems with their own app store models and SDKs, and an inherent disincentive for carriers to open up 4G networks to seamlessly interoperate with other network standards (like WiFi) due to potential loss of revenue (even if this provides a better way of handling local traffic loads).  The good news is that there are signs we may end up with a single 4G radio standard based on recent comments by Sprint and Clearwire (http://www.infoworld.com/d/mobilize/sprint-clearwire-may-move-wimax-lte-).  Lastly, the device/chip ecosystem is still in its infancy for 4G.  While there are aircards and dongle solutions available today, the lower power and form factor solutions for handsets are still a year or two away from high volume.  Yes, Sprint and HTC did announce a 3G/4G handset (HTC EVO, http://now.sprint.com/evo/?id9=SEM_Google_P_Sprint_HTC) at CTIA to be available this summer with some very cool features (front&back cameras, extended battery, sense interface, etc.) and uses WiMax for data and Sprint's cdma network for voice with speeds in the 6-10Mbps range.  But don't expect a large number of these until the costs make it attractive for the mass market.4g-725?source=rss_infoworld_news

In the end, no technology, including 4G, has the right to exist without a viable business model.  This is discussed a bit in a recent interview I did for knowledge@wharton (http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2450) So let the wireless innovation begin!
 

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At the 2010 CES show in January, one of the more interesting products unveiled was the AR Drone by Parrot Systems http://ardrone.parrot.com/parrot-ar-drone/en  The drone is basically a hard foam aircraft with two micro video cameras attached to it.  It can be controlled via an app on the iPhone and sends live video feeds back to the phone.  This is not only very cool, it stretched the limit of how we think about 4G, digital swarms, and connected objects as I discuss in my book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution on Wharton Publishing (http://www.whartonsp.com/store/product.aspx?isbn=013700379X) There are three potential impacts that are worth discussing: 1) having live video feeds overhead present enormous opportunities for surveillance and privacy issues; 2) free flying video could provide tremendous opportunities for efficient and safe building/plant inspections, cheap remote sensing, and even coverage of community events/sports; 3) the possibility of having relay nodes in the sky to quickly move data across mesh networks versus backhauling through currently overloaded cell networks.  Not to mention the huge load of millions of video feeds being dumped onto wireless networks.  Routing these to the most optimal broadband access point may be useful and even necessary in teh future.  It will all depend if everyone needs to have their own private spyplane!

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Everyday we read about mobile social networking becoming more prevalent.  With the iPhones breakthrough in the mobile web browsing experience and overall UI (and others have followed suit), the limitations of using new types of content (maps, pictures, clips, songs) into social networking posts and communications via mobiles has been dramatically reduced.  As a result, we are seeing an explosion in mobile communities.  Facebook recently reported over 100 million of its 400 million users are actively accessing the site via their mobile devices.  New communities such as itmy.com (www.itsmy.com) which was born in the UK and allows personal profile pages with active sharing of apps, music, videos, etc. has been growing dramatically with over 2.5 million users,  Another one is Gypsii (www.Gypsii.com) , born in the Netherlands and now in most of the world, which is adding over 500,000 users a month and focuses on connecting the real and virtual world through linking information to location and user preferences.  The average Gypsii user stays on 4 hours per day!  Fring (www.fring.com) is another interesting community focused on building a phone network out of its users.  It supports free VoIP calling among all users and can interconnect with other VoIP services like Skype.  And finally, there is Yelp (www.yelp.com) with over 25 million users providing real-time collective feedback on everything from restaraunts and hotels to events and shows.  It has basically displaced the traditional static Zagat-type rating services.

These communities are becomiung empowered to provide unique benefits to their participants and are great examples of what Howard Rheingold calls the "gift economy"  I see them as the Digital Swarms that will shape the way we live and work in the future.  Because there is power in numbers and mobile devices give us the platform to harness over 4 billion people to build these communities.  Now that's powerful. Continue Reading...

There will certainly be shifts in the market as 4G rolls out, but will they incremental or radical?  A recent article in Wireless Week (http://www.wirelessweek.com/Articles/2010/02/Technology-Shaking-Up-4G/) does not really indicate that the shifts will be dramatic other than commenting that Clearwire has the most free capacity, AT&T may have the best transition approach (given they are deploying HSPA 7.2 now and can use GSM for voice fall back), and Verizon has the early jump on LTE.  What this tells me is that we are in for more of the same at least for the next few years.  LTE will not be much more than a WiMax look-alike initially (dongles and air cards with rates between 6-10Mbps).  The real seperation could come when handsets are widely available (most likely end of 2011/2012) since this is when economies of scale and the major product/software players (Apple, RIM, Google, Nokia) start to drive the game.  The question is, can the market wait this long?  we have been suffering for a while due to the availability of smart phones and netbooks that can consume large amount of data (15-40X a typical feature phone) coupled with insufficient network capacity.  In order to prevent a huge backlash, the carriers will have to move more aggressively to femtocells and WiFi fallback as a way to stem the bandwidth crunch, or else players like Clearwire may be vaulted into a leadership position as connectivity and speed will trump everything else in the future. Continue Reading...

Google's decision to offer a gigabit high speed network trial in selected communities (http://www.google.com/appserve/fiberrfi/public/overview) represents another step in the companies evolution from an internet ad company to a network operator.  Except the goal of this network is to disrupt the incumbent broadband model which has been passed by the rest of the world (the US currently ranks 28th in broadband speed with an average speed of 3.9Mpbs with S. Korea in 1st at 14.6 Mbs on average).  In addition to just increase fixed line broadband speeds, Google may be laying the foundation for a high-speed backhaul network to support 4G wireless roll-outs.  Especially given the backhaul costs represent roughly 40% of the network expense and there will be huge pressures to offload as much data from the wireless network as possible through UMA/WiFi or femtocell access points.  If Google is able to control the major trunks and the end-points (with Android devices like Nexus One), then they will put themselves in position to connect and analyze all data connections.  If they can extract value for this, then the connections could become free, sending the current carrier model into a death spiral.  Today, the Community Fiber project is just for social benefit and experimentation.  But the future possibilities are very interesting. Continue Reading...

The recent article in the New York Times, (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/business/31unboxed.html)
, "Smart Dust are We There yet?" talks about the progress in distributed wireless sensors which I have talked about in previous blogs.  While we continue along the Moore's Law track towards smaller more capable nano-sensors, the more interesting part of the story is the surge in Participitory sensing where humans and their phones are the sensors.  With each new smartphone comes more advanced suites of sensors including motion, sound, RF, light among others.  Peripheral sensors connected via primary connectors, SD slots, or Bluetooth and WiFi connections, could expand this suite dramatically with sensors such as chemical/bio detection, spectral analysis, and power/current use.  This could enable a whole new wave of applicatioins that could be used for both socially good and for profity applications such as air quality/climate monitoring, community planning, and RF interference management.  Participatory Sensing is a great example of Digital Swarms that I talk about in my recent book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution (http://www.amazon.com/New-World-Wireless-Compete-Revolution/dp/013700379X)

The Center for Embedded Network Sensing (CENS) at UCLA ( http://research.cens.ucla.edu/ ) has been at the forefront of research in this area and companies like Sense Networks ( http://www.sensenetworks.com/ )are just now beginning to mine the data flowing from participatory sensing networks.  The possibilities are endless. Continue Reading...

While the buzz around the Apple Tablet (http://gizmodo.com/5434566/)the-exhaustive-guide-to-apple-tablet-rumors), or as some are calling it, the "iPad", reaches a fever pitch in anticipation of this week's announcement, most folks are talking about the disruption to the mobile consumer market.  Yes, this could change the device paradigm, the way we consume apps, and even the next evolution of the publishing/ereader model, but the more interesting opportunity that no one is talking about is what it could do in the enterprise space.  Given the impact of rudimentary iPhone apps in the enterprise space like bar code scanners, navigation, and live video, the Apple Tablet could turn this crack into a gaping hole of change.  With a larger, more interactive screen and a high speed, ubiquitous 4G network, healthcare, supply chain, maintenance/repair, training, collaboration, customer service/support, sales force automation, and even product design applications could all become completely untethered.  This could result in new levels of efficiency and productivity gains that would further fuel investments in wireless/mobile innovation for enterprises.  Imagine a home inspector being able interact with a live picture of the home to note deficiencies, or a truck repairman sending diagnostic info and getting back the appropriate repair video instructions.  The Digital Swarm just became more capable.

So while there is no doubt the iPad will be very cool for consumers with breakthrough mobile entertainment, access to content, and useful apps, the real excitement may be in the enterprise world once they realize what's coming.
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I got to spend yesterday speaking and moderating a panel at the 4GWE conference in Miami http://4g-wirelessevolution.tmcnet.com/conference/east-10/ where a number of industry players and thought leaders exchanged ideas on the future of wireless and the path to 4G.  I took the opportunity to get feedback from the participants on the two future scenarios for 4G I present in my book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution http://www.whartonsp.com/store/product.aspx?isbn=9780137003792 after presenting early signs from the edge that may foreshadow things to come.  These included Nexus One as a precursor to a true cognitive, carrier independent device, ustream as a surveilance network, Google Goggles as an early AR application, Tendril as the future of home energy management, TomTom as the future of intelligent highways, and even cellphone disabling/jamming as an early sign if backlash against over-use of wireless.  The general feedback seemed to weight towards a "Nature Aligns" future scenario where the user is in control, market power shifts to device/content/application providers, and broadband wireless networks become a utility.  A world in which the carriers must migrate to a new profit model or see their margins erode.  However, there was enough doubt in some of the Nature Aligns enablers and concerns about security/privacy backlash that the "Killer Bees" future scenario where we move back to controlled, closed networks with the carriers being the primary gateway to manage users, content, applications and ensure the integrity and security of the network.  Killer Bees results in a balkanized 4G world versus as truly ubiquitous broadband cloud.  The main takeaway, as suspected, is that no one has the answer yet and we must continue to monitor the market  and consumers to see what future may be emerging, and create adaptive strategies and "WiQ" in our organization that allows us to innovate fast no matter what happens. Continue Reading...

While the reviews may be mixed on Google's recently launched NexusOne, especially given some of the early support issues, the bigger question is how this changes the wireless game and the traditional carrier model.  The NexusOne not only pushes the envelope on performance with the 1GHz Snapdragon processor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snapdragon_(processor) that integrates several RF standards (HSPA+, WiFi, Bluetooth) and GPS with applications processing into one processing chip, but it represents a stpe towards a carrier-independent device.  It is no secret that one of Google's frustrations with Android devices is having the carrier lock out certain features due to their own network policies and revenue models.  The NexusOne is a direct assault on this current model and also represents and important step in the evolution towards sofware defined radios that will allow devices to work on virtually any network with a software download.  This would ultimaltely put a player like Google (or even Apple) in the drivers seat and commoditize the network providers.   It would also put consumers in control of the applications, content, and network resources they use, a very different proposition then today,

As we know from history, this kind of dramatic shifts do not happen overnight.  But the early signals are appearing.   The recent announcement of a WiMax phone by Samsung http://www.phonescoop.com/news/item.php?n=5348 that willl allow interoperation between CDMA and WiMax networks in another example of more flexible, adaptive devices, and the shift towards a true cloud where devices can operate across wireless networks.  Just don't count on it happening tomorrow.  VoIP only tool about a decade before it truly changed the carrier model.

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The application we have all been waiting for us finally here.  The ability to record your everyday life on video.  uCorder (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/personal-tech/gadgets/your-own-personal-black-box/article1417654/ ) has come out with a small camera that easily clips to your clothing and will store up to 2GB of video on flash memory and another 8GB with an extra memory card.  The camera is about the size of a USB thumb drive and can run a few hours on its battery.  Despite the fact this is not the ideal form factor, battery life, video quality, or memory size yet, it is an early signal of the trend towards ubiquitous personal video and surveillance that will affect both wireless networks and our personal lives dramatically.  If this progresses to a streaming model like uStream, the traffic generated would be massive and could crush existing networks.  The personal implications are that every action will be caught on video making everyone's life a documentary.  It also furthers the concept of people as sensors that I discussed in a previous blog and in my book The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution (http://www.whartonsp.com/store/product.aspx?isbn=9780137003792) Continue Reading...

As you can see from my other entries, one of my passions is finding new examples of Digital Swarms in action.  Two user-driven services that have become very popular are Trapster (www.trapster,com) and Urban Spoon (www.urbanspoon.com).  Trapster provides an updated view of speed traps all over the world.  It has even added a recent feature that include real-time feedback from other users on the location of police on the road.  Urban Spoon offers updated restaurant info and ratings (mostly from other eaters) in your location with a quick navigation/search feature especially tailored to mobile users.  Both of these applications gain there true value from the network of mobile participants that can add real-time content.  Especially in the case of Trapster, this real-time sensing by the group can provide real benefit to the user (maybe not in the eyes of the poilice!). 

As phones become smarter and higher speed 4G networks roll out, you can envision rich media exchanges among the network such updated photos of police locations, the signal strength of police radars plotted on a map, virtual tours of restaurants and what each meal looks like, and possibly even interviews with servers!  This may all sound a bit crazy, but ultimately, users will determine which applications survive (as they do today in the appstore model), not carriers or content owners.  It is this user-centric power that will unlock more Digital Swarms in the future. Continue Reading...

M2M does not only apply to exotic applications like environmental monitoring, precision farming, and supply chain automation.  It is also starting to improve basic routine tasks.  I have mentioned in my book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution (http://www.whartonsp.com/store/product.aspx?isbn=013700379X) an example of the mousetraps in Wembley Stadium being by Rentokil (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07129/784423-294.stm) connected via a wireless sensor network to save the maintenance crew a trip until a mouse is in the trap (truly a killer app!).  I recently read of an example of trash cans in Sommerville, Mass, are able to send an SMS message when they are full and ready to be picked up (http://www.wirelessweek.com/Articles/2009/12/Predictions-2010/ ).  The fuel and labor savings potential of these types of simple M2M applications is tremendous.  The limitations in the past have been economics and the lack of open standards (these two are highly related).  With a range of options such as SMS, Zigbee, WiFi, WiMax, and cellular, price points are coming down and more applications are becoming viable.  The deployment of LTE will only fuel this further by providing a true "wireless cloud" for distributed sensor networks to plug into.  With the first LTE deployments happening last week in Sweden by Teliasonera and Norway by Netcom (http://news.idg.no/cw/art.cfm?id=9008F793-1A64-6A71-CE885F8A2D4A8163 , the road is being paved for a new wave of M2M innovation and the Digital Swarm. Continue Reading...