4G Reality versus Hype

While the possibilities of a ubiquitous 100Mbps+ low latency network are incredibly exciting, we have to temper our enthusiasm a bit as the technical kinks, business model impediments, and device/chip economics are worked out.  On the technical side, we are seeing performance from WiMax and early LTE trials in the 5-12 Mbps range on average versus the 100Mbps vision.  But this is still better than what we have with 3G and is delivering these speeds with lower delay and an all IP data network that can begin to provide Quality of Service management.  There are several business model impediments including having two competing stadnards (LTE and WiMax), many different Operating Systems with their own app store models and SDKs, and an inherent disincentive for carriers to open up 4G networks to seamlessly interoperate with other network standards (like WiFi) due to potential loss of revenue (even if this provides a better way of handling local traffic loads).  The good news is that there are signs we may end up with a single 4G radio standard based on recent comments by Sprint and Clearwire (http://www.infoworld.com/d/mobilize/sprint-clearwire-may-move-wimax-lte-).  Lastly, the device/chip ecosystem is still in its infancy for 4G.  While there are aircards and dongle solutions available today, the lower power and form factor solutions for handsets are still a year or two away from high volume.  Yes, Sprint and HTC did announce a 3G/4G handset (HTC EVO, http://now.sprint.com/evo/?id9=SEM_Google_P_Sprint_HTC) at CTIA to be available this summer with some very cool features (front&back cameras, extended battery, sense interface, etc.) and uses WiMax for data and Sprint's cdma network for voice with speeds in the 6-10Mbps range.  But don't expect a large number of these until the costs make it attractive for the mass market.4g-725?source=rss_infoworld_news

In the end, no technology, including 4G, has the right to exist without a viable business model.  This is discussed a bit in a recent interview I did for knowledge@wharton (http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2450) So let the wireless innovation begin!