March 2010 Archives

While the possibilities of a ubiquitous 100Mbps+ low latency network are incredibly exciting, we have to temper our enthusiasm a bit as the technical kinks, business model impediments, and device/chip economics are worked out.  On the technical side, we are seeing performance from WiMax and early LTE trials in the 5-12 Mbps range on average versus the 100Mbps vision.  But this is still better than what we have with 3G and is delivering these speeds with lower delay and an all IP data network that can begin to provide Quality of Service management.  There are several business model impediments including having two competing stadnards (LTE and WiMax), many different Operating Systems with their own app store models and SDKs, and an inherent disincentive for carriers to open up 4G networks to seamlessly interoperate with other network standards (like WiFi) due to potential loss of revenue (even if this provides a better way of handling local traffic loads).  The good news is that there are signs we may end up with a single 4G radio standard based on recent comments by Sprint and Clearwire (http://www.infoworld.com/d/mobilize/sprint-clearwire-may-move-wimax-lte-).  Lastly, the device/chip ecosystem is still in its infancy for 4G.  While there are aircards and dongle solutions available today, the lower power and form factor solutions for handsets are still a year or two away from high volume.  Yes, Sprint and HTC did announce a 3G/4G handset (HTC EVO, http://now.sprint.com/evo/?id9=SEM_Google_P_Sprint_HTC) at CTIA to be available this summer with some very cool features (front&back cameras, extended battery, sense interface, etc.) and uses WiMax for data and Sprint's cdma network for voice with speeds in the 6-10Mbps range.  But don't expect a large number of these until the costs make it attractive for the mass market.4g-725?source=rss_infoworld_news

In the end, no technology, including 4G, has the right to exist without a viable business model.  This is discussed a bit in a recent interview I did for knowledge@wharton (http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2450) So let the wireless innovation begin!
 

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At the 2010 CES show in January, one of the more interesting products unveiled was the AR Drone by Parrot Systems http://ardrone.parrot.com/parrot-ar-drone/en  The drone is basically a hard foam aircraft with two micro video cameras attached to it.  It can be controlled via an app on the iPhone and sends live video feeds back to the phone.  This is not only very cool, it stretched the limit of how we think about 4G, digital swarms, and connected objects as I discuss in my book, The New World of Wireless: How to Compete in the 4G Revolution on Wharton Publishing (http://www.whartonsp.com/store/product.aspx?isbn=013700379X) There are three potential impacts that are worth discussing: 1) having live video feeds overhead present enormous opportunities for surveillance and privacy issues; 2) free flying video could provide tremendous opportunities for efficient and safe building/plant inspections, cheap remote sensing, and even coverage of community events/sports; 3) the possibility of having relay nodes in the sky to quickly move data across mesh networks versus backhauling through currently overloaded cell networks.  Not to mention the huge load of millions of video feeds being dumped onto wireless networks.  Routing these to the most optimal broadband access point may be useful and even necessary in teh future.  It will all depend if everyone needs to have their own private spyplane!

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Everyday we read about mobile social networking becoming more prevalent.  With the iPhones breakthrough in the mobile web browsing experience and overall UI (and others have followed suit), the limitations of using new types of content (maps, pictures, clips, songs) into social networking posts and communications via mobiles has been dramatically reduced.  As a result, we are seeing an explosion in mobile communities.  Facebook recently reported over 100 million of its 400 million users are actively accessing the site via their mobile devices.  New communities such as itmy.com (www.itsmy.com) which was born in the UK and allows personal profile pages with active sharing of apps, music, videos, etc. has been growing dramatically with over 2.5 million users,  Another one is Gypsii (www.Gypsii.com) , born in the Netherlands and now in most of the world, which is adding over 500,000 users a month and focuses on connecting the real and virtual world through linking information to location and user preferences.  The average Gypsii user stays on 4 hours per day!  Fring (www.fring.com) is another interesting community focused on building a phone network out of its users.  It supports free VoIP calling among all users and can interconnect with other VoIP services like Skype.  And finally, there is Yelp (www.yelp.com) with over 25 million users providing real-time collective feedback on everything from restaraunts and hotels to events and shows.  It has basically displaced the traditional static Zagat-type rating services.

These communities are becomiung empowered to provide unique benefits to their participants and are great examples of what Howard Rheingold calls the "gift economy"  I see them as the Digital Swarms that will shape the way we live and work in the future.  Because there is power in numbers and mobile devices give us the platform to harness over 4 billion people to build these communities.  Now that's powerful. Continue Reading...