Numbed by Analyst Research - What I Did on My Summer Vacation

I spent the summer engorged in analyst research.  It was all over my office.  It was in my briefcase.  It was on my computer and iPad.  It was in my head.  It was on the plane with me.  It was home with me.  It was even on my deck with me.  All in the name of business planning.  As its part of my job, it’s interesting for me to read, but really, over time, the reports get a little numbing, especially if you’re looking at them quite a bit.  But I figured I’d boil it all down for in a sort of rudimentary CliffsNotes way.

1.  Smartphones rule.  I don’t know which one will win between Android and  iPhone/iPad/iWhatever, but no matter.   They are driving revenues, and driving network behavior, and due to price decreases and various new models, they’re getting deployed globally.  These things are truly taking the world by storm.

2.  Developing Markets, or BRIC (Brazil Russia India China) if you will, are contributing more and more to the WW mobile revenue, driven by the huge amounts of subscribers in some nations (approaching 1B in India and China, but there seem to be “redundant” subscribers in India but, well, that’s another story, but even if true, hey still HUGE numbers), and driven by economic growth there.

3.  Mobile Data is expected to grow (pick your favorite number between 20 and 50) fold between now and 2015.   Yep, because people are using Smartphones.  Everywhere.  And watching video on them driven by use of the smartphones as an on-ramp to the internet.

4.  The mobile internet means Data, Data, Video, Video.  All of this data and video on the mobile networks mean congestion.  Faster networks are needed (see item 7 below).  Backhaul solutions will grow.  And other optimization techniques (such as offload to WiFi, or squeezing more into the pipe) will be required.

5.  Oh yeah, voice still exists.  Not exactly exciting anymore, and the ARPUs are declining, and voice as a % of revenue compared to data is declining, but hey, worldwide voice is still expected to be about 60% +/- of wireless revenues in 2012, SMS/MMS is about 23% +/- and yeah, that data, data that everyone is touting, is about 17% +/-. US has somewhat higher data and lower voice.  All depends on what analyst report you read, but you get the gist.   Yes, voice still exists.

6.  2G still exists as well.  It’s a wonder, but it’s still bigger WW than 3G.  Connectivity to 2G is still important, and those networks will likely still carry voice, while the Smartphones move to the 3G+ networks.

7.  We hear much about LTE. Fair enough.  But remember that worldwide, in 2012, LTE revenue is still a fraction of overall revenue, approaching 2% of the mobile revenue.  Sure, it’s growing and there is money to be made here since it’s getting deployed now, but I put this here for perspective, especially for readers of this blog from the US.

8.  On the enterprise side, SIP trunks have emerged.  The edge devices between the enterprise and these IP trunks will be SBCs and the age of the gateway is about over, supplanted by SBCs as the edge device of choice…

9.  Which help enable Cloud Computing, which is emerging as more and more of an enterprise deployment option.

 Now go forth and create your strategies!

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This page contains a single entry by Jim Machi published on September 6, 2011 9:41 AM.

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