Mobile Eats World

Peter : On Rad's Radar?
| Peter Radizeski of RAD-INFO, Inc. talking telecom, Cloud, VoIP, CLEC, and The Channel.

Mobile Eats World

Everyone says that mobile will win. A former executive at Synnervse believes that 5G will trump fiber. When your career is wireless, you think 5G is going to be awesome. When your career has been wireline, you don't think anything is better than fiber.

Yet, this headline: "75% of internet use will be mobile in 2017 according to forecast" is kind of misleading. "Zenith Media has released a forecast which says that mobile devices will account for 75% of global internet traffic in 2017." Globally that would appear to be on point since much of the world is mobile only. Laptop and desktops aren't booming. I wonder if tablets are considered mobile or only if they are on a 4G plan.

Mobile internet use passes desktop for the first time, study finds. "The combined traffic from mobile and tablet devices tipped the balance at 51.2 percent, vs. 48.7 percent for desktop access, marking the first time this has happened since StatCounter began tracking stats for [global] Internet usage."

Keep in mind that Mobile vs Desktop has unique User Behaviors. Maybe 55/45 is as far as we go.

"For someone in telecom, the surface-level answer seems obvious. Millennials grew up in the age of cell phones and the Internet. They expect constant connection, mobility, and innovation. This explains why millennials are shaking up personal mobility and communications. But how is it that they're having such an impact on business communications and collaboration too?" from this report.

To continue, "Millennials are becoming the majority in the workforce. They're already the largest generation in the U.S. workforce and should be more than half of the global workforce by 2020. Millennials are becoming managers and leaders. Their preferences and early-adopter tendencies are shifting the conversation about tech in the workplace."

This might be why so much emphasis is on 5G and mobility, but let's not forget that the 2 RBOCs get about half their revenue from mobile, so they will hype up the biggest half of their business.

I don't know how 5G will trump fiber to the home, especially for Boomers and older. Reading tablets and phones with old eyes is a challenge, believe me.

As we have recently witnessed with IOT and hacked phones, security will be an issue. A big issue. No idea how we handle that going forward since people still use password for password (and 1234 for PINs).

If 5G is sold in buckets of data, how does that compete against cable wi-fi or an almost unlimited fiber pipe? "Wi-Fi Expected to Carry up to 60% of Mobile Data by 2019". Is that still mobile only?

Fiber has had set-backs, especially with Google Fiber, but it is also on the rise. More than 600 independent telcos have FTTH projects in the works. Getting pole access via telco, power and government entities is a maze of red tape. Yet cell towers are facing bigger hurdles as no one wants one in their neighborhood. Companies like Crown Castle and Zayo are building out small cells along their dark fiber routes to help 4G fill-in. No idea how dense it will need to be for 5G -- or the lasting effects of that many radios and wi-fi routers per block.

What about the economic effects of fiber? "The evidence is mounting: investment in fiber improves the economic performance of a community as well as its quality of life," said FTTH Council President and CEO Heather Burnett Gold. Would fixed 5G present the same economics?

We will see a certain amount of the market go wireless only. "The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control paints the picture of a growing mobile first society in the U.S., with nearly half (45.4%) of U.S. households wireless only," from the CDC's National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

5G will change things for a few companies. Point to Point licensed wireless has made a few CLECs happy (and profitable). But it isn't for everyone or for every where.

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