4G: For Generations to Come

Anton Wahlman, a good friend, who helps focus money and hedge bets, sent me this note.    

1.      Blackberry is a fully encrypted military-grade secure platform,
with 100% market share at FBI, CIA, White House, Congress, Department
of Defense, major consultancies and major investment banks.  There has
never been a virus or security breach on a Blackberry.  iPhone is
filled with security vulnerabilities.

The road ahead is not as clear cut as people would like to make it.  Case in point is Nortel.  The 3GPP type assets were sold to Nokia Siemens Networks.
Previously the WiMAX side of the shop was scuttled.

So what does this mean for the rest of Nortel?

Candidly I am not sure.

They have other assets they sell to carriers, but I would consider it more marginal and not specifically wireless.  Metro Ethernet, Call Center Solutions including directory, etc.  I would not be surprised if those assets also ended up in other companies.

The part of the company that is enterprised focused is surely in trouble to and acquiring that asset would be best to those who have a weakness in call center capabilities. 

Actually these assets make sense for an Asian buyer.  Although I could make a case for two others.

I can always make the case for Cisco because some of the best assets are in research and I would like to see some people land in the right place. 

As Nortel was failing its R&D was still amazing. 

So what is the lesson for the rest of us?  I would submit that 4G is not a simple migration.  Using the same technologies as the Internet and consumer wireless requires a massive rethink of what a carriers assets are and what they need.

Architectually it looks the same, but in the delivery of services and applications its a new ball game.  Thats been the focus of my travels lately and the speakers that are coming to 4GWE in LA on Sept 1-3 are also focused on the nature of the future.

Nortel had many redeeming qualities and as the assets get integrated natural selection will evolve into something new.

Tags: 3GPP, Call Center, CDMA, Cisco, Directory Services, LTE, MetroEthernet, Nokia-Siemens, Nortel, WiMAX

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Just got off a call on some hiring that I have been advising.  Its been since October and its somewhat political.  Why has it taken so long?  The beauty of Washington Politics is that the change or Parties at the top put a lot of people in flux. 

By in large Washington actually works pretty well the politicians and their lobbyists know each other and act in a civil way (despite the noise you see and hear on TV).

But when the music starts again after an election and everyone has to find a new chair it turns out that in this version of musical chairs, some chairs are better than others.  And that causes a log jam. 

Hiring the right person has been hard since so many candidates are trying for better positions.  And the floor and ceiling is in flux.  Like a person, it may turn out you are their second choice because they are waiting for the appointment of a friend or have their own name in the mix of the administration.

Have a job you may want, it may be held up by the lack of a leader at the department.

So the appointment of the Chairman allows the freeze at the FCC to thaw and for the applicants to have a better understanding of their chances.

Why do I bring this up now, because as the music stops and the chairs get filled the next thing to happen is the noise level is about to increase.  Agendas and lobbying are going to find their pecking order as well.

I have already hinted at what I thought was coming up thats new.  But before we go their Intercarrier Compensation and Special Access are going to become the big stories.

And they have a lot to do with Wireless.  If you see a call with a bad called ID you can suppose that its on purpose and a wireless originator was probably involved (even thought they used VoIP to terminate). imho when Intercarrier compensation gets done this issues should go away.  And as for special access the building out of the wireless backhaul network is looking for relief from these charges.

Assume you see some documents out of the commission by the end of summer,  making for a very active fall.

Tags: FCC, Intercarrier Compensation, job hunting, Julius Genachowski, Lobbying, Obama, Special Access

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The press release just hit the Internets -- Alvarion's mysterious $100 million WiMax gear deal is with planned rural WiMax provider Open Range Communications, and not Clearwire as previously rumored.

According to Ashish Sharma, Alvarion vice president for corporate market development (and apparently handler of all late-night phone calls), the deal could eventually be in excess of the stated $100 million total over its planned five-year length -- but even at the stated $100 million, it's a big win for Alvarion, which just posted $68 million in revenues for its latest quarter. Though Open Range was all over government funding before anyone even dreamed of big telecom stimulus bucks, there are still a lot of questions in the industry whether Open Range is all hat, no cattle as they sometimes say out West.

While Open Range's promises and strange makeup -- government funding and a non-standard deal to obtain spectrum -- have made for a lot of industry head-scratching, the Alvarion deal (which calls for radio equipment, customer premise gear and systems integration) seems to put some meat on the Open Range skeleton, so to speak.

As we said earlier, any $100 million deal is a good one for the WiMax industry, no matter which provider is paying the bills. But until and unless Open Range actually starts delivering on its rural broadband promise (Sharma said services are supposed to be available before the end of the year) this one is still probably better marked as incomplete.

Tags: Alvarion, Clear, Clearwire, Open Range, Paul Kapustka, Sidecut Reports

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Finally the hearings happen, but what a strange love fest.   In some ways it reminds me of the old adage, everyone hates congress but loves their congressman (95% of the incumbents got reelected last election).

Future Chairman Genachowski, was praised by Senate Committe Chairman Jay Rockerfeller with the telling line, 'If you do not have the credentials to be the Chairman, I don't know who would".

But the love fest was full of the reminder that all glory was fleeting and within the hearing were statements that made it clear the committee had their priorities of agendas.

The one that caught my ear (and seemed to have a rough concensus), was the desire for a nationwide emergency service system. 

NENA is ready with a next generation design that needs funding and it would be interesting to see if somehow the rules for $ 6.7 B stimulus can be modified to include the support of this build out. 

Whenever I think of the next generation of 911, I remember what a kludge funding for the existing network was and in this country every state's 911 is testament to how taxation has worked in the past.

Which is why I think the glory for poor Julius is fleeting.  The rules are old and the needs are new.  Its a bad combination and he will need to be adept at bringing the telecom act of 2010 into some useful model.

Congress wants him to succeed as do I.

Commissioner McDowell was very gracious and put his role in perspective.  I was very impressed with his opening remarks.

From Congresses perspective they have a monkey on their back with the issues of media ownership.  It was clear that their were expectations of shot clock of 6 months for the approval process for all future mergers and acquistions. 

Like Genachowski, McDowell was given the we want you to succeed despite our conflicting objectives (save the newspapers expand the ownership).

I also want to concur with the praise of Acting FCC Chairman Copps, he was the half vote on the pulver order and am glad to have as much of his guidance as possible.

Now that they are about to take their seats I want to put in my own two cents on their priorities.  I want to echo Senator Hutchison's call for the unserved to take priority over the underserved when it comes to broadband.  The Yellow spots on the map can fit into the definition of underserved even though if you were to use the cable model of homes passed the bandwidth is greater than the need.  Fix the problem for the unserved first. The underserved need solutions that are not directly associated with high cost and the need for tax dollars.  (imho A few rules in support of network neutrality might do the trick).

Tags: Broadband Policy, Commission McDowell, Commissioner Copps, Congress, Congressman, Julius Genachowski, Media Ownership, Net Neutrality, NextGen 911, Senator Hutchison, Senator Rockerfeller, Stimulus

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