It's All Just Shifting

Peter : On Rad's Radar?
| Peter Radizeski of RAD-INFO, Inc. talking telecom, Cloud, VoIP, CLEC, and The Channel.

It's All Just Shifting

"Ovum, in a latest research report, has warned that OTT VoIP will cost the global telecoms industry $479 billion in lost cumulative revenues by 2020, which represents 6.9 percent of cumulative total voice revenues," according to reports. Notice that it says Over-the-Top VoIP, not VoIP the way cellcos, FiOS and cablecos deliver it. I think it is a wild guess.

If you believe that tablets and smartphones will replace desktops and PC's, then OTT VoIP will be a good part of that.

If the nature of the brick-and-mortar office is shrinking and more and more workers are remote and virtual, then that will have an affect.

If everything is just apps on a network - if everything is just riding on top of the Internet - then that number gets bigger.

The carriers are facing a huge problem: you can't sell as many devices now because everyone has more than enough devices.

As cable steals the small business market, the ILEC's worry but not nearly as much as the CLEC's.

As TV cord cutting picks up pace, cablecos are looking to SMB to replace that revenue. Which will happen faster - SMB sales or cord cutting?

The mounting debt, the expense for interest, the flat revenue, the rising cost of customer acquisition will factor into the future of many carriers. Some will be able to buy their way out of trouble by buying new revenue, new services, maybe new markets. Others won't be able to.

After a few bad earnings, we see that companies are laying off. They are laying off their own consumers. So where does that leave them in a few years? Companies forget that Henry Ford paid his employees a huge wage so that they could buy his cars. The bad economy is as much a function of bad business management as it is Congress.

We have this stupid assumption that everything should grow, always. How is that possible? There are so many factors that are fixed and finite - like the number of customers and how much they can spend.

At BoB, larger VAR's like Dimension Data (owned by NTT), mentioned that customer retention would become more important than customer acquisition (due to cost of acquisition), but total wallet share will also be a factor in success.

What metric are you looking at? What expectation are you setting to your stakeholders? Are you preparing for the shift?

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