Gartner IT Predictions

Here are a few predictions Gartner makes for the future. Gartner’s pretty well-respected and their predictions carry a great deal of weight. My biggest concern is the point that is made in the report suggesting that companies are spending more on regulatory compliance and less on innovation. This is a chilling thought and should be a major concern for anyone concerned about effectively competing with companies from other countries.

If there is a bright side it is that smaller companies with less regulatory burden can still compete effectively as they have less paperwork and more time to be creative.

Here is an excerpt of the full story.

By 2008, 10 percent of companies will require employee-purchased notebooks. (“Gartner predicts that notebooks will begin to move from company ownership to personal ownership. Since notebook prices have declined dramatically during the past few years, this transition is mostly likely to be managed through the implementation of a notebook allowance, much like car mileage today.”)

The job market for IT specialists will shrink 40 percent by 2010. (“The coming decade will see the emergence of IT ‘versatilists,’ people whose multidisciplinary assignments, roles and experiences create a valuable blend of synthesized knowledge, competencies and context to fuel business value.”)

Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) service providers will capture $11 billion of insurance revenue by 2008. (“Gartner analysts predict that by 2008, BPO will have the intellectual property and technology platforms to align with the distribution channel – for example, bank and investment houses – and launch insurance ventures that capture up to one percent of the global annual premium total of life, annuity, and property and casualty products. Using the U.S. as an example, this translates into a shift of nearly $11 billion to BPO which will have a substantial impact on the market landscape.”)

A 50 percent growth in healthcare software investment could enable clinicians to cut the level of preventable deaths in half by 2013. (“Healthcare has historically underinvested in IT, however, this is changing. Gartner analysts predict that by 2009, healthcare investments in IT will increase by more than 50 percent, which could enable clinicians to reduce the level of preventable deaths by 50 percent by 2013.”)
Through 2008, investigation of new technologies will slow as discretionary budgets divert to regulatory compliance. (“Gartner analysts said that regulatory compliance spending is growing at a rate twice that of IT spending, and in many case, discretionary IT budgets are entirely consumed by compliance efforts, stifling initiatives that are important to business growth.”)

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