Key Takeaways:
- IBM plans to build its first fault-tolerant quantum computer, named Quantum Starling, at its Poughkeepsie, New York data center by 2029.
- Starling is expected to operate around 200 logical qubits and run up to 100 million quantum operations—an estimated 20,000× boost over today’s systems.
- The company is leveraging error-correcting codes, including quantum low-density parity check (qLDPC), and real-time classical decoding to tame quantum instability.
- IBM’s roadmap includes intermediate milestones—processors dubbed Loon (2025), Kookaburra (2026), and Cockatoo (2027)—before Starling, and Blue Jay in 2033.
- While the technical plan is detailed, skepticism remains over the timeline and immediate commercial value of large-scale quantum systems.
A clear path through complexity
IBM’s roadmap for Quantum Starling centers on overcoming the notorious fragility of quantum bits. Using qLDPC codes and real-time error correction, the system aims to dramatically reduce the number of physical qubits needed to support error-checked logical qubits. IBM’s VP of quantum, Jay Gambetta, emphasized that the scientific hurdles are resolved—the focus now is on engineering execution.
Stepped milestones toward Starling
IBM’s roadmap sets out a modular, phased approach:
- Loon (2025): Prototype qLDPC-compatible chip with long-range qubit couplers.
- Kookaburra (2026): The first modular processor blending quantum memory and logic operations.
- Cockatoo (2027): Combines multiple Kookaburra modules to prove system scalability.
- Starling (2029): A fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of 100 M operations at 200 logical qubits.
- Blue Jay (2033): Planned successor with ~2,000 logical qubits and 1 billion operations.
These phased builds align with IBM’s goal to move from scientific breakthroughs toward a production-grade, error-resilient system .
Where it stands relative to competitors
IBM isn’t alone—Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and startups like D-Wave, SEEQC, IonQ, and Quantinuum are all pursuing error-corrected quantum systems. But IBM’s roadmap is among the most detailed, especially in spelling out intermediate hardware and error-correction milestones.
Business implications and hurdles
Fault-tolerant systems are necessary for meaningful quantum applications like materials discovery, complex simulation, and secure cryptography—but commercial returns remain distant. Analysts caution that timelines for tangible business outcomes are still speculative, despite the technical clarity .
Yet the detail in IBM’s plan is designed to encourage developers to build and test quantum algorithms now, laying groundwork for eventual business value .
Bottom line
IBM’s roadmap is both bold and methodical. Its layered approach—from prototyping to Starling to Blue Jay—offers a clear timeline toward fault tolerance. While technical confidence is high, the question of when cost-effective use cases will emerge remains open.
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Rich Tehrani serves as CEO of TMC and chairman of ITEXPO #TECHSUPERSHOW Feb 10-12, 2026 and is CEO of RT Advisors and is a Registered Representative (investment banker) with and offering securities through Four Points Capital Partners LLC (Four Points) (Member FINRA/SIPC). He handles capital/debt raises as well as M&A. RT Advisors is not owned by Four Points.
The above is not an endorsement or recommendation to buy/sell any security or sector mentioned. No companies mentioned above are current or past clients of RT Advisors.
The views and opinions expressed above are those of the participants. While believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified for accuracy. Any broad, general statements made herein are provided for context only and should not be construed as exhaustive or universally applicable.
Portions of this article may have been developed with the assistance of artificial intelligence, which may have contributed to ideation, content generation, factual review, or editing.
